Czech First League21°0,1 mm20 km/h

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    TepliceTeplicePossession control
    2–0
    JablonecJablonecPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Jablonec (38%)

    Teplice – Jablonec · Czech First League

    1 · Teplice 31%X 32%38% Jablonec · 2

    Analysis: Teplice – Jablonec

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Jablonec's recent dominance over Teplice is clear, having secured five victories in their last six encounters since 2023. Despite this, the hosts have shown signs of resilience in their current season's statistics, particularly with higher expected goals (xG) per match at 1.4 compared to Jablonec's 0.85. Yet, the visitors' ability to capitalize on their opportunities has been evident in their four-match winning streak leading into this fixture.

    Analyzing the numbers, Teplice's tactical approach emphasizes possession control, which could be a counter to Jablonec's high press and possession strategy. This creates an intriguing tactical battle on the field, with Jablonec's current form and historical head-to-head advantage suggesting they could still have the upper hand. However, Teplice's slightly better xG indicates they may create enough chances to disrupt Jablonec's rhythm.

    The model favors Jablonec with a 38% chance of victory, marginally higher than Teplice's 31%. Expected goals paint a narrow margin, with Jablonec leading at 1.41 compared to Teplice's 1.21. The most probable outcomes point towards a tight match, with a 1-1 draw at 13% being most likely, followed by a 0-1 away win at 10%. The over/under 2.5 goal line is finely balanced at 49%, and both teams have a 53% probability to score, hinting at a match with modest scoring chances.

    From a betting perspective, the value lies in backing Jablonec to continue their winning trend. With odds of 2.72 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, aligning with the model's 38% probability, there is a calculated 2% edge. This presents an opportunity worth considering for those looking to exploit the slight discrepancy in odds.

    TepliceTeplice
    Form WWDLL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #11xT #5xP/match #10Points #9
    Key players
    • Lukas MarecekCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
    • Matej RadostaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
    • Jan FortelnyFxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
    JablonecJablonec
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #3xT #11xP/match #9Points #6
    Key players
    • Martin CedidlaRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
    • Jan SuchanLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
    • Matej PolidarLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Teplice 31% · Draw 32% · Jablonec 38%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - JablonecBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,30fair 9,71-4 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FK TepliceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,94fair 13,25-40 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Teplice – Jablonec

    Predicted score matrix

    Jablonec →
    Teplice →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.7%
    0–19.9%
    0–27.3%
    0–33.4%
    0–4+1.7%
    1
    1–08.4%
    1–112.8%
    1–28.8%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.3%
    2–17.5%
    2–25.3%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–13.0%
    3–22.1%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,21–1,41
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.82
    Over 2,549%
    @1.88

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Jablonec or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.01

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Jablonec or draw (X2)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Lamin Jawo to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Lamin Jawo to score27%
    • Sebastian Nebyla to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Jablonec38% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 2 · Jablonec38% probability@2.75BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    • 2 · Jablonec38% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · TepliceX2 · Jablonec
    Betsafe2.38
    EV+ 2%
    3.20
    EV+ 3%
    2.75
    Betsson2.38
    EV+ 2%
    3.20
    EV+ 3%
    2.75
    Nordicbet2.38
    EV+ 2%
    3.20
    EV+ 3%
    2.75

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 21:36

    Odds movement

    1-6 %
    40 %35 %

    2.52 → 2.38

    X0 %
    31 %26 %

    3.20 → 3.20

    2+5 %
    37 %32 %

    2.62 → 2.75

    Over 2,50 %
    52 %47 %

    1.88 → 1.88

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Teplice 0Draw 1Jablonec 5
    Goals: 2–9 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Jablonec dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
    • FK Jablonec come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Teplice
    Jablonec
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Teplice (10–12)
    Jablonec (5–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Teplice
    Oskars Vientiess: 267 passningar, xT 0.53VientiessLukas Marecek: 186 passningar, xT 0.48MarecekMatej Riznic: 142 passningar, xT 0.76RiznicDalibor Vecerka: 137 passningar, xT 0.11VecerkaMichal Bilek: 129 passningar, xT 0.89BilekJakub Jakubko: 125 passningar, xT 0.32JakubkoMatous Trmal: 112 passningar, xT 0.08TrmalJan Fortelny: 110 passningar, xT 0.13FortelnyMatej Radosta: 101 passningar, xT 0.54RadostaMarcel Čermák: 91 passningar, xT 0.22ČermákJosef Svanda: 89 passningar, xT 0.2Svanda
    Jablonec
    Nemanja Tekijaski: 142 passningar, xT 0.17TekijaskiRichard Sedlacek: 128 passningar, xT 0.28SedlacekDušan Pavlović: 120 passningar, xT 0.13PavlovićVakhtang Chanturishvili: 93 passningar, xT 0.38ChanturishviliJan Suchan: 87 passningar, xT 0.14SuchanMartin Cedidla: 80 passningar, xT 0.13CedidlaKlemen Mihelak: 69 passningar, xT 0.05MihelakSebastian Nebyla: 65 passningar, xT 0.54NebylaMatej Polidar: 62 passningar, xT 0.15PolidarJiří Sláma: 59 passningar, xT 0.18SlámaNelson Okeke: 41 passningar, xT 0.06Okeke
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Teplice
    Oskars Vientiess: 267 passningar, xT 0.53VientiessLukas Marecek: 186 passningar, xT 0.48MarecekMatej Riznic: 142 passningar, xT 0.76RiznicDalibor Vecerka: 137 passningar, xT 0.11VecerkaMichal Bilek: 129 passningar, xT 0.89BilekJakub Jakubko: 125 passningar, xT 0.32JakubkoMatous Trmal: 112 passningar, xT 0.08TrmalJan Fortelny: 110 passningar, xT 0.13FortelnyMatej Radosta: 101 passningar, xT 0.54RadostaMarcel Čermák: 91 passningar, xT 0.22ČermákJosef Svanda: 89 passningar, xT 0.2Svanda
    Jablonec
    Nemanja Tekijaski: 142 passningar, xT 0.17TekijaskiRichard Sedlacek: 128 passningar, xT 0.28SedlacekDušan Pavlović: 120 passningar, xT 0.13PavlovićVakhtang Chanturishvili: 93 passningar, xT 0.38ChanturishviliJan Suchan: 87 passningar, xT 0.14SuchanMartin Cedidla: 80 passningar, xT 0.13CedidlaKlemen Mihelak: 69 passningar, xT 0.05MihelakSebastian Nebyla: 65 passningar, xT 0.54NebylaMatej Polidar: 62 passningar, xT 0.15PolidarJiří Sláma: 59 passningar, xT 0.18SlámaNelson Okeke: 41 passningar, xT 0.06Okeke

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTepliceJablonec
    Points79
    xPoints6.43.9
    xG per match1.40.85
    xGA per match1.50.92
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.19
    Playing styleTepliceJablonec
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.580.53
    xT per match1.10.81
    xTA per match0.921.1
    Won balls, offensive half1720
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.240.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.24
    Entries into the box per match109
    Entries into the box against911
    Pass completion %0.770.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.72
    Passes per match341359
    Passes against per match319335
    Switches of play per match23.135.9
    Long balls per match3036
    Set piecesTepliceJablonec
    xG from free kicks0.050.01
    Corners per match6.75.3
    Corners against per match43.3
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.9
    OtherTepliceJablonec
    Throw-in control0.710.76
    The goalkeepersMatous Trmal (Teplice)Klemen Mihelak (Jablonec)
    Saves196
    Save %61%86%
    xG prevented43%71%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Teplice
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jablonec
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Teplice vs Jablonec according to our model?

    The model gives Jablonec a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Teplice 31%, draw 32%, Jablonec 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.