Czech First League15°15 km/h

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    TepliceTepliceCounter-attacks & crosses
    0–2
    Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka BrnoLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Teplice (48%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.70 (+21 %)

    Teplice – Zbrojovka Brno · Czech First League

    1 · Teplice 48%X 28%25% Zbrojovka Brno · 2

    Analysis: Teplice – Zbrojovka Brno

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Teplice's recent ability to find the net in nine consecutive league matches sets the stage for their clash against Zbrojovka Brno. Their attacking prowess, although not overly prolific, is steady and consistent, which could prove critical against a Brno side that prefers to sit deep and play direct. The hosts boast a slight edge in both points and expected points, pointing to a potentially tight contest.

    Despite this offensive consistency, Teplice's defense remains a concern, averaging 1.8 expected goals against per match. Zbrojovka Brno, on the other hand, shows a stronger defensive profile with an xGA of 1.4. This defensive edge could prove pivotal if Brno can capitalize on Teplice's vulnerabilities at the back. However, Brno's lower xG of 0.92 per match suggests they might struggle to convert any defensive resilience into goals.

    The model indicates a 48% win probability for Teplice, making them the favorites, with the most likely scorelines being 1-0 or 1-1. The under 2.5 goals market is implied at 59%, a plausible outcome given both teams' tendencies and the playing styles they deploy.

    Though the small head-to-head sample limits its weight in analysis, the form points slightly to the hosts. For those hunting value, the standout opportunity lies in the under 1.5 goals market at odds of 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model indicates a 33% probability for this outcome, presenting a substantial edge over the bookmakers' implied odds of around 27%. The cautious bettor might see this as the sharpest angle in what figures to be a closely contested match.

    TepliceTeplice
    Form WWWDL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #14xT #5xP/match #11Points #7
    Key players
    • Matej PulkrabFxG 0.51 · xT 0.08
    • Lukas MarecekCDMxG 0.16 · xT 0.12
    • Matej RadostaRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
    Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka Brno
    Form WDL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #9xP/match #7Points #11
    Key players
    • Tadeáš VachoušekFxG 0.21 · xT 0.00
    • Daniel VašulínFxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
    • Lucky EzehFxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Teplice 48% · Draw 28% · Zbrojovka Brno 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FK TepliceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,62fair 11,07-40 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC Zbrojovka BrnoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,31fair 24,91-63 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Teplice – Zbrojovka Brno

    Predicted score matrix

    Zbrojovka Brno →
    Teplice →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.3%
    0–18.8%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–013.5%
    1–113.1%
    1–25.8%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–18.8%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–04.5%
    3–14.1%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,39–0,92
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.95EV+16%
    Over 2,541%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Teplice to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.75

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Teplice to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Matěj Radosta to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Matěj Radosta to score25%
    • Jakub Janetzký to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.533% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
    • Under 1.533% probability@3.70BetssonEV+21%reference odds
    • Under 1.533% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · TepliceX2 · Zbrojovka Brno
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    2.15    		3.303.05
    Betsson
    EV+ 3%
    2.15    		3.303.05
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    2.15    		3.303.05

    Odds updated 21 Aug, 10:42

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Teplice win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 2.40 to 2.15 (−10%).

    1-10 %
    43 %38 %

    2.40 → 2.15

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.30 → 3.30

    2+12 %
    34 %29 %

    2.72 → 3.05

    Over 2,5-7 %
    53 %48 %

    1.88 → 1.75

    Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 21/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • FK Teplice have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Teplice
    Zbrojovka Brno
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Teplice (10–10)
    Zbrojovka Brno (4–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Teplice
    Oskars Vientiess: 225 passningar, xT 0.5VientiessLukas Marecek: 155 passningar, xT 0.44MarecekJakub Jakubko: 125 passningar, xT 0.32JakubkoMatej Riznic: 108 passningar, xT 0.73RiznicDalibor Vecerka: 98 passningar, xT 0.1VecerkaMatous Trmal: 96 passningar, xT 0.08TrmalMichal Bilek: 93 passningar, xT 0.82BilekJan Fortelny: 88 passningar, xT 0FortelnyMatej Radosta: 87 passningar, xT 0.51RadostaMarcel Čermák: 76 passningar, xT 0.22ČermákJosef Svanda: 73 passningar, xT 0.18Svanda
    Zbrojovka Brno
    Kauan Carneiro da Silva: 112 passningar, xT 0.25SilvaAdam Hrdina: 98 passningar, xT 0.13HrdinaFilip Vedral: 95 passningar, xT 0.67VedralJakub Klíma: 92 passningar, xT 0.12KlímaAmadou Dante: 87 passningar, xT 0.57DanteLukáš Saal: 48 passningar, xT 0.05SaalJakub Janetzký: 47 passningar, xT 0.36JanetzkýTadeáš Vachoušek: 34 passningar, xT -0.01VachoušekLukáš Penxa: 33 passningar, xT 0.05PenxaPatrik Čavoš: 32 passningar, xT 0.02ČavošDaniel Vašulín: 25 passningar, xT 0.04Vašulín
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Teplice
    Oskars Vientiess: 225 passningar, xT 0.5VientiessLukas Marecek: 155 passningar, xT 0.44MarecekJakub Jakubko: 125 passningar, xT 0.32JakubkoMatej Riznic: 108 passningar, xT 0.73RiznicDalibor Vecerka: 98 passningar, xT 0.1VecerkaMatous Trmal: 96 passningar, xT 0.08TrmalMichal Bilek: 93 passningar, xT 0.82BilekJan Fortelny: 88 passningar, xT 0FortelnyMatej Radosta: 87 passningar, xT 0.51RadostaMarcel Čermák: 76 passningar, xT 0.22ČermákJosef Svanda: 73 passningar, xT 0.18Svanda
    Zbrojovka Brno
    Kauan Carneiro da Silva: 112 passningar, xT 0.25SilvaAdam Hrdina: 98 passningar, xT 0.13HrdinaFilip Vedral: 95 passningar, xT 0.67VedralJakub Klíma: 92 passningar, xT 0.12KlímaAmadou Dante: 87 passningar, xT 0.57DanteLukáš Saal: 48 passningar, xT 0.05SaalJakub Janetzký: 47 passningar, xT 0.36JanetzkýTadeáš Vachoušek: 34 passningar, xT -0.01VachoušekLukáš Penxa: 33 passningar, xT 0.05PenxaPatrik Čavoš: 32 passningar, xT 0.02ČavošDaniel Vašulín: 25 passningar, xT 0.04Vašulín

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTepliceZbrojovka Brno
    Points74
    xPoints5.14.2
    xG per match1.51.1
    xGA per match1.81.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.28
    Playing styleTepliceZbrojovka Brno
    Build-up efficiency0.320.39
    Field tilt0.560.35
    xT per match1.20.95
    xTA per match1.11.2
    Won balls, offensive half1722
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.210.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.21
    Entries into the box per match1110
    Entries into the box against1115
    Pass completion %0.790.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.61
    Passes per match351261
    Passes against per match332393
    Switches of play per match2314.9
    Long balls per match3229
    Set piecesTepliceZbrojovka Brno
    xG from free kicks0.060.02
    Corners per match7.33.6
    Corners against per match4.66.3
    xG per corner0.010.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.08
    First touch, offensive corners %0.280.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.720.63
    OtherTepliceZbrojovka Brno
    Throw-in control0.780.71
    The goalkeepersMatous Trmal (Teplice)Adam Hrdina (Zbrojovka Brno)
    Saves1713
    Save %63%81%
    xG prevented44%46%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Teplice
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Zbrojovka Brno
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno according to our model?

    The model gives Teplice a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Teplice 48%, draw 28%, Zbrojovka Brno 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.