Czech First League17°15 km/h

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    Sigma OlomoucSigma OlomoucCounter-attacks & crosses
    3–1
    PardubicePardubiceLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Sigma Olomouc (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.98 (+3 %)

    Sigma Olomouc – Pardubice · Czech First League

    1 · Sigma Olomouc 53%X 26%21% Pardubice · 2

    Analysis: Sigma Olomouc – Pardubice

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Sigma Olomouc enters their clash against Pardubice holding a clear advantage. With a 53% win probability and riding a 17-match scoring streak, the hosts seem poised to edge out their visitors. The numbers suggest a close encounter, with likely scorelines of 1-0 or 1-1. While the home side's ability to consistently find the net is notable, Pardubice's defensive setup and direct play will aim to stifle that momentum.

    Despite the xPoints showing a slight advantage for Pardubice, Olomouc's stronger xG per match (1.2 to 1.0) and xGA per match (1.2 to 1.5) hint at a more balanced team overall. The head-to-head record since 2023 remains deadlocked at 2 wins apiece, emphasizing the unpredictability of this match-up. Nevertheless, Olomouc's superior league form this season, with a better points tally, places them in the driver's seat.

    Goals could be at a premium here, as the model suggests only a 48% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is pegged at 49%, reinforcing the probability of a tight contest dictated by defensive tactics and counter-attacks. Olomouc's penchant for crosses might be their best route to breaking down Pardubice's low block.

    For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market presents an enticing opportunity. With odds of 1.98 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model's 52% estimation offers a 3% edge. These bets are where the calculated punter might find their best returns — the kind that pays the bills without the gamble of wild odds.

    Expect a restrained encounter with Olomouc leveraging their form and scoring streak while Pardubice digs in defensively. A 1-0 victory for the hosts feels like a solid call, underlined by defensive discipline and tactical nous.

    Sigma OlomoucSigma Olomouc
    Form WLDWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #6xP/match #15Points #6
    Key players
    • Abdoulaye SyllaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
    • Dominik JanosekCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.10
    • Michal BeranCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
    PardubicePardubice
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #8xP/match #5Points #14
    Key players
    • Tomas SolilFxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
    • Vojtech PatrakFxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
    • Samuel SimekFxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 53% · Draw 26% · Pardubice 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sigma OlomoucBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,71fair 7,62-25 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - FK PardubiceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,87fair 25,32-57 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sigma Olomouc – Pardubice

    Predicted score matrix

    Pardubice →
    Sigma Olomouc →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.8%
    0–16.5%
    0–23.1%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.2%
    1–111.8%
    1–25.2%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.6%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.9%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,68–0,91
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.98EV+3%
    Over 2,548%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sigma Olomouc to win53%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.61

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sigma Olomouc to win53%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • David Tkáč to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • David Tkáč to score29%
    • Jan Reznicek to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.552% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • Under 2.552% probability@1.98BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    • Under 2.552% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sigma OlomoucX2 · Pardubice
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    1.90    		3.403.65
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    1.90    		3.403.65
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    1.90    		3.403.65

    Odds updated 21 Aug, 10:42

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    51 %46 %

    1.92 → 1.90

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.40 → 3.40

    2+1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.60 → 3.65

    Over 2,50 %
    56 %51 %

    1.75 → 1.75

    Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 21/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Sigma Olomouc 2Draw 2Pardubice 2
    Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • SK Sigma Olomouc have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sigma Olomouc
    Pardubice
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sigma Olomouc (7–6)
    Pardubice (3–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sigma Olomouc
    Michal Beran: 250 passningar, xT 0.26BeranAbdoulaye Sylla: 213 passningar, xT 0.92SyllaLouis Lurvink: 206 passningar, xT 0.41LurvinkPéter Baráth: 196 passningar, xT 0.15BaráthDominik Janosek: 161 passningar, xT 0.26JanosekMatus Maly: 146 passningar, xT 0.13MalyAhmad Ghali: 133 passningar, xT 0.66GhaliJan Koutny: 108 passningar, xT 0.08KoutnyJan Kral: 91 passningar, xT 0.08KralVáclav Sejk: 67 passningar, xT 0.34SejkDavid Tkáč: 57 passningar, xT 0.03Tkáč
    Pardubice
    Michal Hlavatý: 103 passningar, xT 0.5HlavatýJason Noslin: 101 passningar, xT 0.39NoslinMarek Icha: 97 passningar, xT 0.31IchaSimon Bammens: 91 passningar, xT 0.15BammensTobias Boledovič: 77 passningar, xT 0.19BoledovičEmmanuel Godwin: 76 passningar, xT 0.33GodwinSamuel Simek: 58 passningar, xT 0.07SimekJan Tredl: 56 passningar, xT 0.14TredlTomáš Jelínek: 56 passningar, xT 0.24JelínekVojtech Patrak: 32 passningar, xT -0.12PatrakJachym Serak: 31 passningar, xT 0.03Serak
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sigma Olomouc
    Michal Beran: 250 passningar, xT 0.26BeranAbdoulaye Sylla: 213 passningar, xT 0.92SyllaLouis Lurvink: 206 passningar, xT 0.41LurvinkPéter Baráth: 196 passningar, xT 0.15BaráthDominik Janosek: 161 passningar, xT 0.26JanosekMatus Maly: 146 passningar, xT 0.13MalyAhmad Ghali: 133 passningar, xT 0.66GhaliJan Koutny: 108 passningar, xT 0.08KoutnyJan Kral: 91 passningar, xT 0.08KralVáclav Sejk: 67 passningar, xT 0.34SejkDavid Tkáč: 57 passningar, xT 0.03Tkáč
    Pardubice
    Michal Hlavatý: 103 passningar, xT 0.5HlavatýJason Noslin: 101 passningar, xT 0.39NoslinMarek Icha: 97 passningar, xT 0.31IchaSimon Bammens: 91 passningar, xT 0.15BammensTobias Boledovič: 77 passningar, xT 0.19BoledovičEmmanuel Godwin: 76 passningar, xT 0.33GodwinSamuel Simek: 58 passningar, xT 0.07SimekJan Tredl: 56 passningar, xT 0.14TredlTomáš Jelínek: 56 passningar, xT 0.24JelínekVojtech Patrak: 32 passningar, xT -0.12PatrakJachym Serak: 31 passningar, xT 0.03Serak

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSigma OlomoucPardubice
    Points71
    xPoints4.55.7
    xG per match1.21
    xGA per match1.21.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.1
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.110.19
    Playing styleSigma OlomoucPardubice
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.530.35
    xT per match1.11
    xTA per match1.11.2
    Won balls, offensive half2223
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.310.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.22
    Entries into the box per match1013
    Entries into the box against917
    Pass completion %0.820.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.65
    Passes per match461244
    Passes against per match326399
    Switches of play per match28.523.9
    Long balls per match3534
    Set piecesSigma OlomoucPardubice
    xG from free kicks0.240.09
    Corners per match3.84.8
    Corners against per match5.14.3
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.59
    OtherSigma OlomoucPardubice
    Throw-in control0.780.72
    The goalkeepersJan Koutny (Sigma Olomouc)Vladimír Neuman (Pardubice)
    Saves137
    Save %68%70%
    xG prevented54%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sigma Olomouc
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Pardubice
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice according to our model?

    The model gives Sigma Olomouc a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sigma Olomouc 53%, draw 26%, Pardubice 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.