01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Slavia Praha to win82%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Czech First League20°4,4 mm23 km/h
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Slavia PrahaPossession & high press4–0
Zbrojovka BrnoPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Slavia Praha (82%)
Slavia Praha – Zbrojovka Brno · Czech First League
1 · Slavia Praha 82%X 12%5% Zbrojovka Brno · 2
82%
12%
Analysis: Slavia Praha – Zbrojovka Brno
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT CORRIGÉ:
Slavia Praha's fortress-like home record, winning 90% of their matches at their own ground all-time, sets a daunting stage for Zbrojovka Brno. Despite the visitors riding a wave of three consecutive victories, the odds are heavily stacked against them. With the hosts boasting an unbeaten streak across their last seven league outings and scoring in 13 straight matches, the challenge for Brno is clear.
The expected goals model paints a clear picture of potential dominance by Slavia, projecting them to score 2.84 goals compared to Brno's modest 0.64. This disparity underlines the hosts' potent attack, which aligns with their possession and high-press style. Meanwhile, the visitors, favoring possession control, might find themselves stifled by Slavia's relentless pressing game.
Given the most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0, both at 12%, the match appears poised to follow the model's expectation of over 2.5 goals, which stands at 68%. The rain in the forecast, with 6.9 mm expected, could dampen the goal tally slightly, but this factor is already accounted for in the projections. With only a 5% chance of victory, Brno's task is monumental, especially when juxtaposed with Slavia's consistent form and superior xG metrics.
For those seeking value, the odds favoring a home win are particularly compelling. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer Slavia to win at 1.29 odds, presenting an enticing 6% edge against the model's 82% probability. This scenario not only highlights Slavia's dominance but also frames it as the sharpest betting angle for those inclined to capitalize on the numbers.
Slavia PrahaForm WWDDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #3xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Mojmir ChytilFxG 0.82 · xT 0.02
- Wiktor NowakFxG 0.54 · xT 0.07
- Lukas ProvodFxG 0.17 · xT 0.35
Zbrojovka BrnoForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #13xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Antonín VaníčekFxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Daniel VašulínFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
- Lucky EzehFxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
Final score
4 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Slavia Praha 82% · Draw 12% · Zbrojovka Brno 5%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Slavia PragBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,78fair 4,02-6 %
MissMatchresultat - FC Zbrojovka BrnoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 26,99fair 82,44-67 %
MissMatch prediction: Slavia Praha – Zbrojovka Brno
Predicted score matrix
Zbrojovka Brno →
Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.2%
0–11.8%
0–20.6%
0–30.1%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–08.6%
1–15.8%
1–21.8%
1–30.4%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–012.4%
2–18.0%
2–22.6%
2–30.6%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–011.7%
3–17.5%
3–22.4%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–016.6%
4+–110.7%
4+–23.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.3-012%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.4-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
2,84–0,64
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,532%
@2.40
Over 2,568%
@1.50EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Slavia Praha to win82%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Mojmír Chytil to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Mojmír Chytil to score39%
- Jakub Janetzký to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Slavia Praha82% probability@1.29BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Slavia Praha82% probability@1.29BetssonEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Slavia Praha82% probability@1.29NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Slavia Praha | X | 2 · Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 1.29 | 5.15 | 8.00 |
| Betsson | EV+ 6% 1.29 | 5.15 | 8.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 1.29 | 5.15 | 8.00 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 13:40
Odds movement
1+1 %
75 %70 %
1.28 → 1.29
X0 %
19 %14 %
5.15 → 5.15
2-5 %
13 %8 %
8.40 → 8.00
Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- SK Slavia Prague are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- SK Slavia Prague have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- SK Slavia Prague win 90% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Slavia Praha
Zbrojovka Brno
Slavia Praha (17–5)
Zbrojovka Brno (10–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Slavia Praha
Zbrojovka Brno
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Slavia Praha
Zbrojovka Brno
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Slavia Praha | Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 13 |
| xPoints | 10.6 | 9.7 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.58 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Slavia Praha | Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 0.72 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 297 | 274 |
| Passes against per match | 232 | 380 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.2 | 19.6 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Slavia Praha | Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| Other | Slavia Praha | Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakub Markovič (Slavia Praha) | Adam Hrdina (Zbrojovka Brno) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 20 |
| Save % | 71% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Slavia Praha vs Zbrojovka Brno according to our model?
The model gives Slavia Praha a 82% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slavia Praha 82%, draw 12%, Zbrojovka Brno 5%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.