01 · 2 legs
Safe
- FC København to win69%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Danish SuperligaParken, København17°0,2 mm17 km/h
Läs på svenska
FC KøbenhavnPossession & high press3–1
SønderjyskELow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · FC København (69%)
FC København – SønderjyskE · Danish Superliga
1 · FC København 69%X 19%13% SønderjyskE · 2
69%
19%
13%
Analysis: FC København – SønderjyskE
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The numbers paint a clear picture: FC København is heavily favored against Sønderjyske, boasting a commanding 69% chance of victory according to the model. Yet, the tension lies in the contrasting styles—København's possession and high press against Sønderjyske's deep defensive setup and direct play. This tactical clash suggests København will dominate possession, but Sønderjyske's direct counters could exploit any defensive lapses.
Despite Copenhagen's strong home win rate of 55% from their 33 games, the model's expected goals of 2.43 to 0.98 underscores their attacking advantage. However, their xPoints trail at 4.3 against Sønderjyske's 6.2, hinting at inefficiencies in converting opportunities this season. This could make Sønderjyske's low block harder to break than anticipated.
The head-to-head record, a mere two matches since 2022, offers limited insight, with each team claiming a win. Yet, København's superior squad depth and tactical flexibility should tip the scales. The predicted scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1, each at 10%, highlight the likely outcome, although Sønderjyske's potential to snatch a goal remains, with both teams to score at 57%.
The expected rain of 4.7 mm may suppress goal-scoring slightly, but with an over 2.5 goals probability at 66%, the numbers still lean towards a relatively open affair. This balance positions a 2-0 scoreline as a sensible prediction, aligning with København's expected dominance.
For bettors, the value lies in backing København to win at odds above 1.45, aligning with their 69% win probability. Though not a lock, the model's lean and Copenhagen's formidable squad make this a sensible play.
FC KøbenhavnForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #9xP/match #10Points #5
Key players
- Mohamed ElyounoussiFxG 0.42 · xT 0.12
- Robert SilvaLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.01
- Marcos LopezLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
SønderjyskEForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #8xP/match #8Points #12
Key players
- Maxime SoulasRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Sefer EminiCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
- Sidi Mohamed Cherif HaidaraCAMxG 0.21 · xT -0.04
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: FC København 69% · Draw 19% · SønderjyskE 13%
Match prediction: FC København – SønderjyskE
Predicted score matrix
SønderjyskE →
FC København →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.5%
0–13.0%
0–21.6%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–07.8%
1–18.1%
1–23.8%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–09.8%
2–19.6%
2–24.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–07.9%
3–17.8%
3–23.8%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–08.6%
4+–18.4%
4+–24.1%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-18%
- 4.3-08%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
2,43–0,98
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,534%
–
Over 2,566%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- FC København to win69%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Viktor Johan Anton Claesson to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Viktor Johan Anton Claesson to score35%
- Sefer Emini to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFC København 1Draw 0SønderjyskE 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- FC Copenhagen win 55% of their home matches all-time (33 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC København
SønderjyskE
FC København (10–7)
SønderjyskE (4–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC København
SønderjyskE
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC København
SønderjyskE
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC København | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 1 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 6.2 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.84 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| Playing style | FC København | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| xT per match | 0.75 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 439 | 269 |
| Passes against per match | 377 | 486 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.3 | 22 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 34 |
| Set pieces | FC København | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.69 |
| Other | FC København | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Dominik Kotarski (FC København) | Marcus Bundgaard (SønderjyskE) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 10 |
| Save % | 67% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC København vs SønderjyskE according to our model?
The model gives FC København a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC København 69%, draw 19%, SønderjyskE 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.