Nordsjælland vs AGF: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Danish Superliga13 September 2026 18:00 CESTRight to Dream Park, Farum15°5,4 mm18 km/h

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NordsjællandPossession & high press

AGFPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Nordsjælland (59%)

1 · Nordsjælland 59%X 22%19% AGF · 2

59%

22%

19%

Analysis: Nordsjælland – AGF

Sofia Andersson · 5 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

One factual issue: the text states Bet365 offers Nordsjælland to win at 1.70, but no such odds are provided in the FACTS.

Corrected text:

FC Nordsjælland commands a 59% chance of victory against AGF, a projection firmly supported by recent performances and expected goal metrics. The hosts exhibit a sharp edge, not just in the standings with 13 points to AGF's 3, but with a healthier xPoints tally too. Nordsjælland's expected goals per match stands at 2.2 compared to AGF's 1.6, clearly illustrating the attacking potential favored in this matchup. Despite AGF's historical edge in this fixture, with a slight lead in 8 meetings, Nordsjælland's recent form shows more promise.

The most probable scorelines tilt towards a 1-1 or 2-1 result, each holding a 10% chance, suggesting a competitive clash. However, Nordsjælland's superior xG metrics give them a slight edge, predicting a 2-1 victory likely. The 61% chance of over 2.5 goals aligns with both teams' high press playing style, though the forecasted rain might temper the attacking rhythm slightly, already considered in the model's numbers.

Sharp bettors might find value in backing a home win, given the hosts' strong home win percentage and better recent form. The numbers indicate Nordsjælland should edge this, casting AGF as underdogs despite their historical claims.

Nordsjælland

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Mamadou Lamine SadioFxG 0.45 · xT 0.03
Justin JanssenCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
Caleb YirenkyiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18

AGF

Form DLDLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #6xP/match #6Points #11

Key players

Gift LinksRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.23
Kristian ArnstadFxG 0.39 · xT 0.09
Sebastian JorgensenRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.26

Match prediction: Nordsjælland – AGF

Predicted score matrix

AGF →

Nordsjælland →

0–04.7%

0–14.8%

0–22.9%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.3%

1–110.3%

1–25.8%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.5%

2–19.8%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.6%

3–16.5%

3–23.7%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–04.4%

4+–15.0%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-08%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,97–1,16

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.68EV+6%

Over 2,561%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nordsjælland to win59%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nordsjælland to win59%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Ibrahim Adel Ali Mohamed Hassan to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Ibrahim Adel Ali Mohamed Hassan to score33%
Magnus Nordengen Knudsen to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Nordsjælland59% probability@1.90BetssonEV+11%reference odds
1 · Nordsjælland59% probability@1.90NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
1 · Nordsjælland59% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nordsjælland	X	2 · AGF
Betfair Exchange	1.11	1.86	1.89
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 1.88	3.85	3.70
Betsson	EV+ 11% 1.90	3.90	3.75
Nordicbet	EV+ 11% 1.90	3.90	3.75
Paddy Power	EV+ 8% 1.85	3.80	3.30

Odds updated 7 Sept, 08:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Nordsjælland win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 2.20 to 1.90 (−14%).

1-14 %

52 %42 %

2.20 → 1.90

X+7 %

30 %20 %

3.65 → 3.90

2+21 %

32 %22 %

3.10 → 3.75

Over 2,5-3 %

69 %59 %

1.50 → 1.46

Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Nordsjælland 2Draw 2AGF 4

Goals: 8–11 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

AGF Aarhus dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
FC Nordsjaelland win 63% of their home matches all-time (35 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nordsjælland

AGF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nordsjælland (9–4)

AGF (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

AGF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

AGF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nordsjælland	AGF
Points	13	3
xPoints	10.5	8.3
xG per match	2.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.19

Playing style	Nordsjælland	AGF
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.3
Field tilt	0.58	0.6
xT per match	1.6	1.2
xTA per match	0.63	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	28	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.26
Entries into the box per match	21	17
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.83	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.7
Passes per match	552	421
Passes against per match	368	276
Switches of play per match	25.2	25.8
Long balls per match	34	29

Set pieces	Nordsjælland	AGF
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.07
Corners per match	6.8	8.3
Corners against per match	3.7	3.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.58

Other	Nordsjælland	AGF
Throw-in control	0.77	0.7

The goalkeepers	Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland)	Mads Hedenstad Christiansen (AGF)
Saves	19	13
Save %	83%	62%
xG prevented	57%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nordsjælland vs AGF according to our model?

The model gives Nordsjælland a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordsjælland 59%, draw 22%, AGF 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.