01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Nordsjælland to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Danish SuperligaRight to Dream Park, Farum17°6,9 mm25 km/h
Läs på svenska
NordsjællandPossession & high press3–1
BrøndbyPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Nordsjælland (59%)
Nordsjælland – Brøndby · Danish Superliga
1 · Nordsjælland 59%X 24%17% Brøndby · 2
59%
24%
17%
Analysis: Nordsjælland – Brøndby
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Possession and high pressing will dominate the scene as Nordsjælland host Brøndby. Both teams employ similar tactics, promising a tactical chess match where the midfield battle could decide the flow. Despite Brøndby having the upper hand in the points tally, Nordsjælland's recent form, particularly at home, sets the tone. They have won 62% of their home fixtures historically, and the model gives them a 59% win probability in this clash.
The numbers underpin FCN's advantage. Despite Brøndby arriving with four consecutive wins, the expected goals data leans heavily towards the hosts: an xG of 2.5 to Brøndby's 1.5. Furthermore, Nordsjælland's defensive metrics show a significant edge, conceding an xGA of just 0.72 per match compared to Brøndby's 1.2. While the head-to-head record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses is evenly split, it's a small sample and less indicative than current form and xG.
Rain is expected, which could hinder attacking play. However, with 60% chances for both over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net, scoring opportunities should arise. The likely scoreline favors a 1-1 or 2-1 result, but the high xG for Nordsjælland suggests they might tip this in their favor.
The sharpest angle lies in the market discrepancy. With Betsson, Nordicbet, and Betsafe offering 2.08 on a Nordsjælland win, there's a clear value edge, as the model suggests a 59% probability. If you’re looking for an edge, the home win at these odds is hard to ignore.
NordsjællandForm WDWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Ibrahim Adel Ali Mohamed HassanFxG 0.75 · xT 0.53
- Mamadou Lamine SadioFxG 0.53 · xT 0.06
- Justin JanssenCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
BrøndbyForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #6xP/match #6Points #1
Key players
- Jordi VanlerbergheCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
- Mats KohlertLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
- Oliver VilladsenRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Nordsjælland 59% · Draw 24% · Brøndby 17%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BrøndbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,82fair 13,21-41 %
MissMatch prediction: Nordsjælland – Brøndby
Predicted score matrix
Brøndby →
Nordsjælland →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–15.1%
0–23.3%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–08.1%
1–110.6%
1–26.3%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.7%
2–25.9%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–05.0%
3–16.1%
3–23.7%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–03.6%
4+–14.4%
4+–22.7%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,89–1,22
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.48
Over 2,560%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Nordsjælland to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Prince Amoako Junior to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Prince Amoako Junior to score29%
- Mathias Jensen to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Nordsjælland59% probability@2.20Paddy PowerEV+31%reference odds
- 1 · Nordsjælland59% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
- 1 · Nordsjælland59% probability@2.02BetssonEV+20%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nordsjælland | X | 2 · Brøndby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 19% 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| Betsson | EV+ 20% 2.02 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 20% 2.02 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 31% 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 25% 2.10 | 4.02 | 3.20 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
1-2 %
49 %44 %
2.14 → 2.10
X+7 %
27 %22 %
3.77 → 4.02
2+3 %
33 %28 %
3.10 → 3.20
Pinnacle · 21 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesNordsjælland 2Draw 4Brøndby 2
Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- FC Nordsjaelland come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Brøndby IF come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- FC Nordsjaelland win 62% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nordsjælland
Brøndby
Nordsjælland (6–1)
Brøndby (10–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nordsjælland
Brøndby
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nordsjælland
Brøndby
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Nordsjælland | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 13 |
| xPoints | 7.8 | 7 |
| xG per match | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 0.72 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Nordsjælland | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.31 | 0.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 26 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.84 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 607 | 405 |
| Passes against per match | 327 | 331 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 21.7 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Nordsjælland | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 9.1 | 7.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Other | Nordsjælland | Brøndby |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland) | Patrick Pentz (Brøndby) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 12 |
| Save % | 92% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 69% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nordsjælland vs Brøndby according to our model?
The model gives Nordsjælland a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordsjælland 59%, draw 24%, Brøndby 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.