Nordsjælland vs Randers: Prediction & Odds (2 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga2 August 2026 14:00 CESTRight to Dream Park, Farum18°0,1 mm13 km/h

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NordsjællandPossession & high press

1–0

RandersBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Nordsjælland (55%)Best value by the model: 2 · Randers @ 5.08 (+21 %)

1 · Nordsjælland 55%X 21%24% Randers · 2

55%

21%

24%

Analysis: Nordsjælland – Randers

Anna Karlsson · 31 July 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

A high-scoring affair is on the cards as FC Nordsjaelland welcome Randers in the Danish Superliga, where the average fixture sees 3.7 goals fly into the net. FC Nordsjaelland's grasp on possession and a relentless high press mark them as the favorites, but Randers' physical and balanced approach provides an intriguing counterbalance. The model probabilities give FC Nordsjaelland a 55% chance to snatch victory, yet there's undeniable tension in their recent head-to-head — six encounters since 2022 have yielded three defeats and just two wins for the supposed favorites.

FC Nordsjaelland have a commendable home advantage, claiming victory in 59% of their home matches since 2022, which aligns well with their expected goals tally of 1.98 against Randers’ 1.13. A 2-1 scoreline looms large as one of the most likely outcomes, tied with a 1-1 draw at 10%, and backed by the 60% probability of over 2.5 goals. Randers, however, have stolen the spotlight in their recent matchups, showing they can disrupt the Nordsjaelland camp with their tenacity.

Randers' value proposition is intriguing, especially for the punters with a penchant for risk. The odds of 4.87 at Pinnacle and 4.5 at Betfair Exchange reveal a value edge, with the model assessing a 24% chance of Randers walking away with three points. These odds highlight the potential spoiler role Randers could play, especially considering their ability to absorb pressure and counter effectively.

FC Nordsjaelland must capitalize on their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, standing at 0.41 compared to Randers’ mere 0.05. This quick transition game might just be the key to unlocking a resolute Randers defence. Yet, the 59% probability of both teams finding the net suggests the visitors won't go quietly.

In this fixture, the scales tip towards FC Nordsjaelland, with a 2-1 victory being the most plausible outcome. However, those chasing value might be enticed by Randers at Pinnacle's odds of 4.87 — a sharp angle that could defy the odds and reward the brave.

Nordsjælland

Form LDDWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #8xT #3xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Justin JanssenCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Peter AnkersenCBxG 0.34 · xT 0.38
Caleb YirenkyiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.23

Randers

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #4xT #6xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Sidi Mohamed Cherif HaidaraFxG 0.37 · xT -0.07
Sefer EminiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
Magnus JensenCDMxG 0.34 · xT 0.11

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Nordsjælland 55% · Draw 21% · Randers 24%

Match prediction: Nordsjælland – Randers

Predicted score matrix

Randers →

Nordsjælland →

0–04.8%

0–14.8%

0–22.9%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.6%

1–110.3%

1–25.6%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.8%

2–19.9%

2–25.6%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.8%

3–16.5%

3–23.7%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–04.5%

4+–15.1%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

1,98–1,13

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

–

Over 2,560%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nordsjælland to win55%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nordsjælland to win55%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Hjalte Boe Kling Rasmussen to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Hjalte Boe Kling Rasmussen to score29%
John Gunnar Björkengren to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Randers24% probability@5.08PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
2 · Randers24% probability@4.50Betfair ExchangeEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nordsjælland	X	2 · Randers
Betfair Exchange	1.74	3.95	EV+ 7% 4.50
Pinnacle	1.63	4.37	EV+ 21% 5.08

Odds updated 2 Aug, 10:10

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Nordsjælland win since 28 July — the odds have shortened from 1.71 to 1.63 (−5%).

1-5 %

60 %55 %

1.71 → 1.63

X+8 %

25 %20 %

4.03 → 4.37

2+13 %

22 %17 %

4.49 → 5.08

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 28/07/2026 → 02/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Nordsjælland 2Draw 1Randers 3

Goals: 9–13 (⌀ 3,7)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.7 goals per meeting on average.
FC Nordsjaelland win 59% of their home matches all-time (32 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nordsjælland

Randers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nordsjælland (1–1)

Randers (1–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

Randers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

Randers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nordsjælland	Randers
Points	1	1
xPoints	1.9	1.1
xG per match	3.4	0.63
xGA per match	1.3	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.05
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.48

Playing style	Nordsjælland	Randers
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.85	0.49
xT per match	1.5	1.1
xTA per match	0.41	0.42
Won balls, offensive half	26	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.27
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.31
Entries into the box per match	27	10
Entries into the box against	6	17
Pass completion %	0.84	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.74
Passes per match	635	477
Passes against per match	246	567
Switches of play per match	44.9	17.3
Long balls per match	50	21

Set pieces	Nordsjælland	Randers
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.05
Corners per match	13	5.1
Corners against per match	4	7.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.57

Other	Nordsjælland	Randers
Throw-in control	0.65	0.92

The goalkeepers	Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland)	Jannich Storch (Randers)
Saves	3	5
Save %	75%	83%
xG prevented	17%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nordsjælland

Fixtures, form & tips

Randers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nordsjælland vs Randers according to our model?

The model gives Nordsjælland a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordsjælland 55%, draw 21%, Randers 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.