Horsens vs Lyngby: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga23 August 2026 16:00 CESTCASA Arena, Horsens14°25 km/h

HorsensLow block & direct

LyngbyPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Lyngby (39%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Horsens 33%X 29%39% Lyngby · 2

33%

29%

39%

Analysis: Horsens – Lyngby

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A curious conundrum unfolds in the Danish Superliga as Horsens and Lyngby Boldklub lock horns in a fixture brimming with intrigue and statistical insights. With the model probability nudging towards Lyngby Boldklub at 39%, the stage is set for a tightly contested battle. Horsens hang in there with a 33% chance, while the draw languishes closer at 29%.

Lyngby Boldklub brings a distinct tactical approach with their possession-based, high-pressing style, suggesting they might dominate the midfield skirmishes. They've outperformed in the xG department, clocking in at a robust 1.9 per match compared to Horsens' paltry 0.9. This disparity in attacking efficiency is mirrored in their expected goals against, where Lyngby also holds the upper hand, conceding only 1.1 xGA to Horsens’ leaky 2.0. The raw numbers favor Lyngby Boldklub, and the model's lean is no accident.

Horsens, on the other hand, will look to the head-to-head record as a psychological anchor, having split the spoils evenly with a 1W 2D 1L record over their last four encounters. However, this is a small sample size and matters less than the current form and expected goals. Their low-defense, direct style might keep them in the game, but it’s the visitors who appear better equipped to exploit any lapses.

The clash is poised to see goals; the over 2.5 goals probability at 52% and a 56% chance for both teams finding the net are more than enticing. A 1-1 draw and a 1-2 away win tie at 9% as the most plausible scorelines, reinforcing the notion of an edge for Lyngby. For those eyeing a punt with value, Bet365 offers Lyngby Boldklub to win at 39%, aligning with the model’s lean and current form indicators.

In this chess match of styles, Lyngby Boldklub emerges as the favored side in my book, with a likely scoreline of 1-2. Expect an intense affair, but the visitors should find enough gaps to exploit.

Horsens

Form DLLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #11xP/match #12Points #6

Key players

Kelvin Osemudiamen EhibhatiomhanFxG 0.30 · xT 0.01
Adam HerdonssonFxG 0.01 · xT -0.01
Yamirou OuorouRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.23

Lyngby

Form WLDLD

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #2Points #11

Key players

Gustav Leone FrauloRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.28
Simon Willem ColynLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.25
Casper Kaarsbo WintherCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Horsens – Lyngby

Predicted score matrix

Lyngby →

Horsens →

0–06.7%

0–18.9%

0–26.8%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.7%

1–07.9%

1–112.4%

1–28.8%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.3%

2–17.8%

2–25.7%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.3%

3–13.4%

3–22.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,46

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.90

Over 2,552%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Lyngby or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Lyngby or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson to score20%
Abdul Salam Moro to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Horsens	X	2 · Lyngby
Betsafe	2.85	3.35	2.40
Betsson	2.88	3.40	2.42
Nordicbet	2.88	3.40	2.42

Odds updated 19 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Lyngby win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 2.62 to 2.42 (−8%).

1+12 %

39 %29 %

2.58 → 2.88

X-3 %

33 %23 %

3.50 → 3.40

2-8 %

44 %34 %

2.62 → 2.42

Over 2,5+2 %

58 %48 %

1.82 → 1.85

Betsson · 25 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Horsens

Lyngby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Horsens (4–6)

Lyngby (5–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Horsens

Lyngby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Horsens

Lyngby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Horsens	Lyngby
Points	4	2
xPoints	4	6.5
xG per match	0.9	1.9
xGA per match	2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.53
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.34

Playing style	Horsens	Lyngby
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.28	0.69
xT per match	0.54	1.3
xTA per match	1.4	0.74
Won balls, offensive half	19	41
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.31
Entries into the box per match	7	18
Entries into the box against	19	10
Pass completion %	0.74	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.69
Passes per match	307	344
Passes against per match	468	327
Switches of play per match	16.8	9.7
Long balls per match	27	22

Set pieces	Horsens	Lyngby
xG from free kicks	0	0.07
Corners per match	3.2	5.2
Corners against per match	8.7	3.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.6

Other	Horsens	Lyngby
Throw-in control	0.73	0.66

The goalkeepers	Matej Delac (Horsens)	Diego Kochen (Lyngby)
Saves	12	6
Save %	75%	43%
xG prevented	55%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Horsens vs Lyngby according to our model?

The model gives Lyngby a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Horsens 33%, draw 29%, Lyngby 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.