Lyngby vs AGF: Prediction & Odds (1 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga1 August 2026 18:00 CESTLyngby Stadion, Kongens Lyngby19°15 km/h

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LyngbyCounter-attacks & crosses

2–2

AGFCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · AGF (49%)

1 · Lyngby 29%X 22%49% AGF · 2

29%

22%

49%

Analysis: Lyngby – AGF

Sofia Andersson · 31 July 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Six matches without tasting defeat — that’s the impressive streak AGF Aarhus brings into their showdown with Lyngby Boldklub. It's a pattern that hints at resilience and consistency, a formidable blend in the cutthroat world of the Danish Superliga. While AGF Aarhus holds the upper hand in recent form, Lyngby’s knack for causing defensive headaches can’t be overlooked, as their expected goals (xG) per match sits at a lively 3.1 compared to AGF Aarhus’s 1.9. Yet, despite this attacking potential, it's the visitors who seem to hold the upper hand, both in probability and poise.

Lyngby Boldklub’s tactical setup is a mirror of AGF Aarhus’s own counter-attack and crossing strategy, but their execution has fallen short more often than not. The two sides have met twice since 2022, and Lyngby have yet to clinch a victory. They've managed only a draw and succumbed to defeat once, suggesting that AGF Aarhus has a slight mental edge in head-to-head contests. They may have bagged fewer points historically, but Lyngby’s greater xPoints and slightly tighter expected goals against (xGA) offer a semblance of an argument for a surprise.

AGF Aarhus's unbeaten run and a model probability tipping the scales at a solid 49% in their favor underline a match that leans towards them. Betting markets echo this sentiment, presenting tangible value at odds of 2.16 with Pinnacle for an away win — an enticing 6% edge if the data holds true. As for the scoreboard, the most likely result skews towards a close affair, with 1-1 at a 12% likelihood and both 1-2 and 0-1 each sitting at 9%.

With the probability of over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 57%, the odds suggest action in front of goal. However, the sharpest edge lies in backing AGF Aarhus to continue their unbeaten roll. The numbers, the form, and the market all weave a compelling narrative for the visitors to edge it, perhaps 1-2, with the over 2.5 goals just about tipping the balance. For the punters, the value on AGF Aarhus at 2.16 is the glittering gem in the betting landscape.

Lyngby

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #1Points #10

Key players

Lauge Wesenberg SandgravCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Mikkel Rosleff FischerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Renzo TytensLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.18

AGF

Form DWWWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #5xP/match #4Points #5

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Lyngby 29% · Draw 22% · AGF 49%

Match prediction: Lyngby – AGF

Predicted score matrix

AGF →

Lyngby →

0–06.4%

0–19.0%

0–27.0%

0–33.6%

0–4+1.9%

1–07.5%

1–112.2%

1–29.0%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.0%

2–17.6%

2–25.7%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.1%

3–13.2%

3–22.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,28–1,52

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.26EV+6%

Over 2,553%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

AGF to win49%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

AGF to win49%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad to score24%
Jens Jønsson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · AGF49% probability@2.39PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lyngby	X	2 · AGF
Pinnacle	2.95	3.63	EV+ 17% 2.39

Odds updated 1 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Lyngby win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 3.80 to 2.95 (−22%).

1-22 %

34 %24 %

3.80 → 2.95

X+1 %

31 %21 %

3.61 → 3.63

2+22 %

50 %40 %

1.95 → 2.39

Over 2,5-9 %

60 %50 %

1.85 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Lyngby 0Draw 1AGF 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

AGF Aarhus are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lyngby

AGF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lyngby (2–3)

AGF (1–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lyngby

AGF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lyngby

AGF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lyngby	AGF
Points	0	1
xPoints	2.5	1.8
xG per match	3.1	1.9
xGA per match	0.89	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	1.2	0.47
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.04

Playing style	Lyngby	AGF
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.59	0.57
xT per match	1.6	1.1
xTA per match	0.7	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	31	26
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.41	0.43
Entries into the box per match	18	23
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.7	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.59
Passes per match	279	334
Passes against per match	408	293
Switches of play per match	13.9	30.5
Long balls per match	26	37

Set pieces	Lyngby	AGF
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	5	10.2
Corners against per match	5	6.1
xG per corner	0.1	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.8	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.67

Other	Lyngby	AGF
Throw-in control	0.71	0.77

The goalkeepers	Diego Kochen (Lyngby)	Jesper Hansen (AGF)
Saves	3	1
Save %	50%	50%
xG prevented	43%	21%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lyngby

Fixtures, form & tips

AGF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lyngby vs AGF according to our model?

The model gives AGF a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyngby 29%, draw 22%, AGF 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.