01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lyngby or draw (1X)70%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Danish SuperligaLyngby Stadion, Kongens Lyngby17°7,6 mm22 km/h
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LyngbyPossession & high press1–1
OdensePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Lyngby (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Odense @ 3.35 (+10 %)
Lyngby – Odense · Danish Superliga
1 · Lyngby 41%X 26%33% Odense · 2
41%
26%
33%
Analysis: Lyngby – Odense
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
41% is the figure that stands out. It leans towards Lyngby, suggesting the hosts are slight favorites against Odense despite trailing in points. However, the expected goals tell a different story, with Lyngby leading at 1.67 to Odense's 1.34. This paints a picture of a tighter contest than the points table might suggest, hinting at a clash where current form perhaps edges history.
The most probable scoreline is 1-1, but the 58% over 2.5 goals probability indicates the potential for more action. Both teams prefer possession and high pressing, likely leading to an open game. Yet, the expected rain could dampen scoring opportunities, a factor already considered in the model's calculations. While Lyngby have an edge in xPoints and xGA, Odense’s actual points tally gives them a psychological boost.
Yet, odds of 3.2 on an Odense win with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer intriguing value, matching the model's away win probability at a 5% edge. Given this, the sharp betting angle is on the away odds, with a nod to a potential over 2.5 goals. Expect a narrow victory for either side, possibly 2-1, leaning toward Lyngby, with weather conditions as a wildcard.
LyngbyForm LDLDL
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #3Points #11
Key players
- Ísak Snær ÞorvaldssonFxG 0.79 · xT 0.03
- Simon Willem ColynLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.22
- Casper Kaarsbo WintherCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.19
OdenseForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #5xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Fiete ArpRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.20
- Noah GanausFxG 0.43 · xT 0.06
- Jakob BondeCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.13
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lyngby 41% · Draw 26% · Odense 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Odense BKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,38fair 10,61-21 %
MissMatchresultat - LyngbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,27fair 6,82-23 %
MissMatch prediction: Lyngby – Odense
Predicted score matrix
Odense →
Lyngby →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–16.3%
0–24.4%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–07.9%
1–111.4%
1–27.4%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.2%
2–26.2%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.1%
3–23.4%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.1%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,67–1,34
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.32
Over 2,558%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lyngby or draw (1X)70%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Asbjørn Johnsen Bøndergaard to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Asbjørn Johnsen Bøndergaard to score28%
- Casper Kaarsbo Winther to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Odense33% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Odense33% probability@3.35BetssonEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Odense33% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lyngby | X | 2 · Odense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.61 | 1.61 |
| Betsafe | 2.05 | 3.60 | EV+ 10% 3.35 |
| Betsson | 2.08 | 3.65 | EV+ 10% 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | 3.65 | EV+ 10% 3.35 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | EV+ 2% 3.94 | EV+ 10% 3.35 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
1+3 %
48 %43 %
2.00 → 2.06
X+6 %
28 %23 %
3.71 → 3.94
2-5 %
31 %26 %
3.51 → 3.35
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lyngby
Odense
Lyngby (6–10)
Odense (4–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lyngby
Odense
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lyngby
Odense
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lyngby | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 4 |
| xPoints | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Lyngby | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.66 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 40 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 366 | 406 |
| Passes against per match | 320 | 412 |
| Switches of play per match | 11.3 | 22.5 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Lyngby | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 3.4 | 8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| Other | Lyngby | Odense |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Diego Kochen (Lyngby) | Viljar Myhra (Odense) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 11 |
| Save % | 50% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 33% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lyngby vs Odense according to our model?
The model gives Lyngby a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyngby 41%, draw 26%, Odense 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.