01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lyngby to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Danish SuperligaLyngby Stadion, Kongens Lyngby16°1,4 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
LyngbyCounter-attacks & crossesvs
SønderjyskELow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Lyngby (55%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.50 (+26 %)
Lyngby – SønderjyskE · Danish Superliga
1 · Lyngby 55%X 25%21% SønderjyskE · 2
55%
25%
21%
Analysis: Lyngby – SønderjyskE
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Fifty-five percent: that's the model's probability for a Lyngby victory, setting the stage for tomorrow's Danish Superliga clash against Sønderjyske. Despite the visitors' recent four-match losing streak, the likely outcome appears tightly contested with scorelines like 1-1 and 1-0 (both 10-12%). Yet, all metrics—points, expected goals, and expected points—favor the hosts, indicating more than just a slight advantage. Lyngby’s attacking numbers, particularly their 1.69 expected goals, dwarf Sønderjyske's 1.10, suggesting a more threatening offensive stance.
The tactical contrast is stark: Lyngby’s preference for counter-attacks and crosses versus a low defensive stance from Sønderjyske. This dynamic could see the visitors sitting back, inviting pressure, and aiming to capitalize on direct breaks. However, Lyngby’s superior xG and Sønderjyske's vulnerable defense—conceding 1.9 xGA per match—might tilt the balance toward the home side, particularly as Sønderjyske struggle to find the net with an average of just 0.87 xG per game.
For bettors, value surfaces in the under 2.5 goals market, offered at odds of 2.28 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the model's 47% probability, there's an 8% edge here that shouldn't be overlooked. A lean towards a low-scoring affair complements this bet, despite the 53% likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals.
LyngbyForm LDLDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #5xP/match #2Points #8
Key players
- Simon Willem ColynFxG 0.35 · xT 0.16
- Ísak Snær ÞorvaldssonFxG 0.82 · xT 0.01
- Casper Kaarsbo WintherCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
SønderjyskEForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #8xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Sidi Mohamed Cherif HaidaraCAMxG 0.23 · xT -0.03
- Ismaïl SeydiFxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
- Magnus JensenCDMxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Lyngby – SønderjyskE
Predicted score matrix
SønderjyskE →
Lyngby →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–16.4%
0–23.7%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.1%
1–111.8%
1–26.3%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.7%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.9%
3–15.4%
3–23.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.1%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,69–1,10
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.55EV+8%
Over 2,553%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lyngby to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Simon Willem Colyn to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Simon Willem Colyn to score28%
- Jens Jakob Dyhr Thomasen to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.523% probability@5.50Paddy PowerEV+26%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.55Paddy PowerEV+20%reference odds
- Under 3.569% probability@1.60Paddy PowerEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lyngby | X | 2 · SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.68 | 3.85 | EV+ 0% 4.85 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.90 | EV+ 2% 4.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.68 | 3.90 | EV+ 2% 4.95 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 1% 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | EV+ 4% 4.20 | EV+ 2% 4.94 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 06:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Lyngby win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 1.72 to 1.61 (−6%).
1-6 %
59 %54 %
1.72 → 1.61
X+4 %
25 %20 %
4.04 → 4.20
2+14 %
23 %18 %
4.32 → 4.94
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Sonderjyske have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lyngby
SønderjyskE
Lyngby (9–11)
SønderjyskE (7–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lyngby
SønderjyskE
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lyngby
SønderjyskE
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lyngby | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 1 |
| xPoints | 11.9 | 7.2 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 0.87 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.45 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.67 |
| Playing style | Lyngby | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 36 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 358 | 274 |
| Passes against per match | 368 | 485 |
| Switches of play per match | 10.7 | 22.2 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Lyngby | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| Other | Lyngby | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Diego Kochen (Lyngby) | Nicolai Flo (SønderjyskE) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 11 |
| Save % | 66% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lyngby vs SønderjyskE according to our model?
The model gives Lyngby a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyngby 55%, draw 25%, SønderjyskE 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.