01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Midtjylland to win64%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Danish SuperligaMCH Arena, Herning14°0,3 mm24 km/h
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MidtjyllandPossession controlvs
RandersBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Midtjylland (64%)Best value by the model: 2 · Randers @ 6.50 (+4 %)
Midtjylland – Randers · Danish Superliga
1 · Midtjylland 64%X 20%16% Randers · 2
64%
20%
16%
Analysis: Midtjylland – Randers
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Four wins to one in six meetings — that's the story of Midtjylland's recent dominance over Randers in this fixture. When these two sides clash, it generally leans heavily towards the home team. Midtjylland's win probability sits at a robust 64%, while Randers, despite their physical and balanced approach, have just a marginal 16% chance. The historical head-to-head suggests a pattern that's hard to ignore, even with the small sample size since 2022.
Midtjylland’s expected goals of 2.13 compared to Randers’ 0.89 paints a clear picture of the attacking disparity. The possession-oriented strategy at home has seen them win 70% of matches, and their xGA of 0.69 per match further underscores their defensive solidity. Meanwhile, Randers’ xGA sits at a troubling 1.6, pointing to potential vulnerabilities that Midtjylland will look to exploit.
Two to zero or even two to one seem the most likely scorelines, with the model giving these outcomes a combined 21% likelihood. The over 2.5 goals market is also attractive at 58%, especially considering the average of 3.8 goals per meeting between these two. With Midtjylland dictating play, a goal feast isn't out of the question, but Randers’ physicality could muddy the waters just enough to keep it tight.
Randers sit four points behind Midtjylland, but interestingly, they edge them slightly in xPoints — 4.4 to Midtjylland’s 4.1. This nuance suggests Randers might not be as far behind as the points suggest. For the brave punter, there's an intriguing value play on Randers at odds of 6.9 with Betsson and Nordicbet, rated with an 11% edge by the model. At these odds, the calculated risk may just be worth the punt.
MidtjyllandForm DLWWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #5xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Mads Bech SorensenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
- Valdemar ByskovLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.09
- Friday Ubi EtimFxG 0.29 · xT 0.04
RandersForm LDLWL
League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #10xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Mike ThemsenFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
- Kasper Aalund JunkerLWxG 0.45 · xT -0.02
- Mohamed Ortaim SankohFxG 0.15 · xT -0.13
Match prediction: Midtjylland – Randers
Predicted score matrix
Randers →
Midtjylland →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–14.1%
0–21.9%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.2%
1–19.5%
1–24.1%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.1%
2–19.9%
2–24.4%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.9%
3–17.0%
3–23.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–06.8%
4+–16.1%
4+–22.7%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,13–0,89
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.28
Over 2,558%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Midtjylland to win64%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Franculino Gluda Djú to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Franculino Gluda Djú to score33%
- Daniel Mathias Høegh to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Randers16% probability@6.50BetssonEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Randers16% probability@6.50NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Randers16% probability@6.40BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Midtjylland | X | 2 · Randers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.48 | 4.30 | EV+ 3% 6.40 |
| Betsson | 1.49 | 4.40 | EV+ 4% 6.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.49 | 4.40 | EV+ 4% 6.50 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:36
Odds movement
1-1 %
66 %61 %
1.50 → 1.49
X-3 %
24 %19 %
4.55 → 4.40
2+10 %
17 %12 %
5.90 → 6.50
Over 2,50 %
61 %56 %
1.60 → 1.60
Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesMidtjylland 4Draw 1Randers 1
Goals: 14–9 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Midtjylland dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
- Midtjylland win 70% of their home matches all-time (33 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Midtjylland
Randers
Midtjylland (6–4)
Randers (3–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Midtjylland
Randers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Midtjylland
Randers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Midtjylland | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 4 |
| xPoints | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.75 |
| xGA per match | 0.69 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Midtjylland | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.63 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 21 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 351 | 389 |
| Passes against per match | 227 | 506 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.1 | 22.3 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Midtjylland | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.6 | 7.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| Other | Midtjylland | Randers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Philip Billing (Midtjylland) | Jannich Storch (Randers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 15 |
| Save % | 100% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Midtjylland vs Randers according to our model?
The model gives Midtjylland a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Midtjylland 64%, draw 20%, Randers 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.