Randers vs Odense: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Danish Superliga13 September 2026 16:00 CESTCepheus Park, Randers16°19 km/h

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RandersLow block & direct

OdensePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Odense (41%)

1 · Randers 30%X 29%41% Odense · 2

30%

29%

41%

Analysis: Randers – Odense

Marcus Johansson · 8 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Randers have struggled to find the back of the net this season, averaging just 0.78 expected goals per match. In contrast, Odense Boldklub are generating 1.6 expected goals per game, highlighting a significant offensive advantage. While the points table shows Randers with a slight edge, boasting 10 points to Odense's 5, the expected points tell a different story, favoring the visitors with 8.9 xPoints compared to the hosts' 8.2.

The tactical clash is intriguing: Randers' strategy relies on a low defensive block and direct play, which will be put to the test against Odense's possession-oriented approach and high pressing. The visitors have had the upper hand in the small head-to-head sample since 2022, remaining unbeaten with two draws and two wins. Yet, with only four matches in that sample, this historical trend weighs less than current form and expected goals.

Model probabilities lean towards an Odense victory at 41%, and the most likely scorelines suggest a close contest, with 1-1 at 13% and 0-1 at 10%. The weather might suppress goal-scoring opportunities slightly, with 9.0 mm of rain expected, but this has already been factored into the model's numbers where the over/under line sits at an ambivalent 49% for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is slightly more likely at 54%.

The sharpest angle here is the potential value on an away win. With Betsson, Nordicbet, and Betsafe offering odds of 2.88 and 2.85, there's an estimated 17-18% edge compared to the model's assessment, making Odense an enticing bet. As the home side wrestles with offensive inefficiencies and the visitors bring a more effective attacking game, an Odense victory, likely 0-1 or 1-2, stands out as the plausible outcome.

Randers

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #10xP/match #10Points #7

Key players

Mike ThemsenRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
Mohamed Ortaim SankohFxG 0.30 · xT -0.09
Elies MahmoudCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.11

Odense

Form LLDDL

League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #4xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Alexander Gustav Kent Ahl-HolmströmFxG 0.71 · xT 0.19
Fiete ArpCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
Rasmus FalkCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Randers – Odense

Predicted score matrix

Odense →

Randers →

0–07.5%

0–19.6%

0–27.0%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.6%

1–08.5%

1–112.7%

1–28.7%

1–34.1%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.5%

2–17.7%

2–25.4%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.3%

3–13.2%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,24–1,40

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.16EV+8%

Over 2,549%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Odense or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Odense or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Noah Ganaus to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Noah Ganaus to score25%
Julius Berthel Askou Harvey to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Odense41% probability@3.25PinnacleEV+33%reference odds
2 · Odense41% probability@3.10BetssonEV+27%reference odds
2 · Odense41% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Randers	X	2 · Odense
Betsafe	2.18	EV+ 6% 3.65	EV+ 25% 3.05
Betsson	2.20	EV+ 6% 3.65	EV+ 27% 3.10
Nordicbet	2.20	EV+ 6% 3.65	EV+ 27% 3.10
Paddy Power	2.20	3.40	EV+ 14% 2.80
Pinnacle	2.14	EV+ 4% 3.58	EV+ 33% 3.25

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:33

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Randers win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 2.49 to 2.14 (−14%).

1-14 %

46 %36 %

2.49 → 2.14

X+1 %

32 %22 %

3.55 → 3.58

2+20 %

37 %27 %

2.70 → 3.25

Over 2,5+3 %

62 %52 %

1.66 → 1.70

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Randers 0Draw 2Odense 2

Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Randers

Odense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Randers (8–8)

Odense (5–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Randers

Odense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Randers

Odense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Randers	Odense
Points	10	5
xPoints	8.2	8.9
xG per match	0.78	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.23

Playing style	Randers	Odense
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.38	0.51
xT per match	0.68	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.23
Entries into the box per match	10	13
Entries into the box against	19	15
Pass completion %	0.75	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.73
Passes per match	329	427
Passes against per match	482	387
Switches of play per match	21.2	25.2
Long balls per match	28	30

Set pieces	Randers	Odense
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.2	5.7
Corners against per match	7.7	6.6
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.2
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.63

Other	Randers	Odense
Throw-in control	0.71	0.7

The goalkeepers	Jannich Storch (Randers)	Viljar Myhra (Odense)
Saves	18	13
Save %	72%	54%
xG prevented	62%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Randers

Fixtures, form & tips

Odense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Randers vs Odense according to our model?

The model gives Odense a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Randers 30%, draw 29%, Odense 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.