Silkeborg vs Midtjylland: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga30 August 2026 14:00 CESTJYSK park, Silkeborg17°13,7 mm21 km/h

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SilkeborgBalanced & physical

MidtjyllandPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Midtjylland (68%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.00 (+37 %)

1 · Silkeborg 14%X 18%68% Midtjylland · 2

14%

18%

68%

Analysis: Silkeborg – Midtjylland

Oscar Nilsson · 25 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The most glaring takeaway here is the dominant streak Midtjylland holds against Silkeborg, winning all four of their encounters since 2022. While this small sample size carries less weight than current form and expected goals, it underscores a psychological edge for Midtjylland. Coupled with the model's strong tilt towards Midtjylland at a 68% win probability, the stage seems set for them to extend their run.

Midtjylland's possession-driven style is likely to overpower Silkeborg's balanced and physical approach. The expected goals (xG) model favors Midtjylland significantly at 2.81 compared to Silkeborg's 1.04, indicating a potential for a multi-goal victory. Despite Silkeborg's more physical play, they haven't translated it into defensive solidity, as their expected goals against (xGA) stands at a troubling 1.6 per match. Meanwhile, Midtjylland's defense has been notably tighter, conceding an xGA of just 0.71.

Goals are anticipated, with the model assigning a 74% probability to over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to find the net. The most likely outcomes hover around a comfortable Midtjylland victory, either 1-2 or 0-2, as per the model's top scorelines.

For bettors seeking an edge, the ambitious over 4.5 goals market stands out. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 3.7, there's a notable 27% edge based on the model's 34% estimation. Given the offensive firepower expected from Midtjylland and Silkeborg's leaky defense, this high-scoring proposition could offer significant value.

Silkeborg

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #11xP/match #9Points #8

Key players

Mads LarsenCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Callum MccowattCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.15
Oliver RossLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.16

Midtjylland

Form LWWDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #1xT #5xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Dario OsorioRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.42
Mads Bech SorensenCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
Valdemar ByskovLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Silkeborg – Midtjylland

Predicted score matrix

Midtjylland →

Silkeborg →

0–02.3%

0–15.8%

0–28.4%

0–37.9%

0–4+11.0%

1–02.0%

1–16.4%

1–28.7%

1–38.2%

1–4+11.4%

2–01.1%

2–13.2%

2–24.5%

2–34.3%

2–4+5.9%

3–00.4%

3–11.1%

3–21.6%

3–31.5%

3–4+2.1%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-29%
2.0-28%
3.1-38%
4.0-38%
5.1-16%

Expected goals

1,04–2,81

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,9

18%

216%

320%

419%

5+34%

Under 2,526%

@2.58

Over 2,574%

@1.50EV+10%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Midtjylland to win68%
Over 1.5 goals90%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Midtjylland to win68%
Over 2.5 goals74%
José Francisco dos Santos Júnior to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals74%
José Francisco dos Santos Júnior to score21%
Mads Larsen to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.534% probability@4.00Paddy PowerEV+37%reference odds
Over 4.534% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
Over 4.534% probability@3.70BetssonEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Silkeborg	X	2 · Midtjylland
Betfair Exchange	1.20	1.10	1.20
Betsafe	6.30	4.30	EV+ 1% 1.49
Betsson	6.40	4.35	EV+ 2% 1.50
Nordicbet	6.40	4.35	EV+ 2% 1.50
Paddy Power	5.00	4.33	1.44
Pinnacle	5.83	4.92	1.46

Odds updated 27 Aug, 08:37

Odds movement

1+5 %

19 %14 %

5.54 → 5.83

X+3 %

22 %17 %

4.79 → 4.92

2-2 %

66 %61 %

1.49 → 1.46

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Silkeborg 0Draw 0Midtjylland 4

Goals: 3–12 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Silkeborg

Midtjylland

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Silkeborg (4–8)

Midtjylland (7–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Silkeborg

Midtjylland

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Silkeborg

Midtjylland

The teams in numbers

Performance	Silkeborg	Midtjylland
Points	4	10
xPoints	5.9	5.7
xG per match	0.83	1.2
xGA per match	1.6	0.71
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.16

Playing style	Silkeborg	Midtjylland
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.37	0.58
xT per match	0.55	1.2
xTA per match	1.3	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	18	34
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.41
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.41
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.81	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.67
Passes per match	442	348
Passes against per match	483	225
Switches of play per match	16.3	36.4
Long balls per match	21	45

Set pieces	Silkeborg	Midtjylland
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	5.2	6.4
Corners against per match	5.8	3.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.69

Other	Silkeborg	Midtjylland
Throw-in control	0.69	0.75

The goalkeepers	Aske Andresen (Silkeborg)	Elias Olafsson (Midtjylland)
Saves	16	5
Save %	67%	56%
xG prevented	48%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Silkeborg vs Midtjylland according to our model?

The model gives Midtjylland a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Silkeborg 14%, draw 18%, Midtjylland 68%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 74% and under at 26%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.