Viborg vs Lyngby: Prediction & Odds (4 Sept 2026)

Danish Superliga4 September 2026 19:00 CESTEnergi Viborg Arena, Viborg15°3,1 mm25 km/h

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ViborgCounter-attacks & crosses

LyngbyPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Viborg (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lyngby @ 4.15 (+24 %)

1 · Viborg 44%X 26%30% Lyngby · 2

44%

26%

30%

Analysis: Viborg – Lyngby

Erik Lindberg · 3 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Viborg's knack for finding stability in recent weeks contrasts sharply with Lyngby Boldklub's struggles. Riding a three-match winning streak, the hosts have turned their form around with tactical discipline and a reliance on counter-attacking play. This has translated into an edge not just in form but also on the points table, where they sit comfortably with 13 points compared to Lyngby’s paltry 3.

Despite Viborg's ascendancy, the expected goals tell a slightly different story. The hosts average 1.5 xG per match, falling short of Lyngby’s 2.0 xG, suggesting that the visitors are creating more offensive opportunities. Yet, Viborg's superior defensive metrics (1.1 xGA to Lyngby’s 1.2 xGA) might just tip the scales on a rainy evening forecasted to have over 15 mm of rain, conditions that could suppress scoring.

Head-to-head encounters since 2022 offer a limited sample of four matches, though Viborg holds a small advantage with one win and three draws. However, this historical data weighs less than the current form and expected goals. The model heavily leans towards a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline, underscoring the match's potential to be tightly contested. The over 2.5 goals market is at 59%, signaling a slight anticipation of a higher-scoring affair, albeit dampened by weather conditions.

For those seeking value, there is a significant edge on the market for Lyngby to snatch a win. Odds of 3.95 on Betsson, Nordicbet, and 3.9 on Betsafe offer an 18% and 17% edge respectively. While the model gives Lyngby a 30% chance of victory, this represents a rare spot where calculated risk aligns with potential reward.

Viborg

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #7xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Oliver BundgaardLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
Charly NouckLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.17
Lukas Emil KirkegaardCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15

Lyngby

Form DLDLD

League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #4xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Simon Willem ColynFxG 0.25 · xT 0.17
Ísak Snær ÞorvaldssonFxG 0.87 · xT 0.01
Casper Kaarsbo WintherCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Viborg – Lyngby

Predicted score matrix

Lyngby →

Viborg →

0–05.0%

0–16.6%

0–25.2%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.0%

1–111.3%

1–28.1%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.8%

2–18.6%

2–26.4%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.6%

3–03.1%

3–14.5%

3–23.4%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,58–1,49

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.48EV+2%

Over 2,559%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Viborg or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Viborg or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Dorian Junior Hanza Meha to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Dorian Junior Hanza Meha to score27%
Davíð Helgi Aronsson to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lyngby30% probability@4.15BetssonEV+24%reference odds
2 · Lyngby30% probability@4.15NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
2 · Lyngby30% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Viborg	X	2 · Lyngby
Betsafe	1.80	3.80	EV+ 23% 4.10
Betsson	1.82	EV+ 0% 3.85	EV+ 24% 4.15
Nordicbet	1.82	EV+ 0% 3.85	EV+ 24% 4.15
Pinnacle	1.81	EV+ 6% 4.08	EV+ 20% 4.02

Odds updated 4 Sept, 05:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Viborg win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.92 to 1.81 (−5%).

1-5 %

54 %49 %

1.92 → 1.81

X+3 %

26 %21 %

3.96 → 4.08

2+14 %

28 %23 %

3.53 → 4.02

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Viborg 1Draw 3Lyngby 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 0,8)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Viborg come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Viborg

Lyngby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Viborg (10–4)

Lyngby (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Viborg

Lyngby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Viborg

Lyngby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Viborg	Lyngby
Points	13	3
xPoints	10.5	10.4
xG per match	1.5	2
xGA per match	1.1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.49
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.31

Playing style	Viborg	Lyngby
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.38	0.7
xT per match	1	1.4
xTA per match	0.92	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	23	39
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.3
Entries into the box per match	12	19
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.71
Passes per match	353	361
Passes against per match	414	338
Switches of play per match	27.7	10.6
Long balls per match	30	25

Set pieces	Viborg	Lyngby
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.15
Corners per match	4.6	5.6
Corners against per match	6.8	3.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.22	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.65

Other	Viborg	Lyngby
Throw-in control	0.64	0.64

The goalkeepers	Kasper Hartly Kiilerich (Viborg)	Diego Kochen (Lyngby)
Saves	21	17
Save %	84%	61%
xG prevented	74%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Viborg vs Lyngby according to our model?

The model gives Viborg a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viborg 44%, draw 26%, Lyngby 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.