Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk: Prediction & Odds (11 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie11 September 202616°1,5 mm17 km/h

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Jong AjaxPossession control

WaalwijkPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Waalwijk (51%)

1 · Jong Ajax 29%X 20%51% Waalwijk · 2

29%

20%

51%

Analysis: Jong Ajax – Waalwijk

Oscar Nilsson · 10 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Jong Ajax and Waalwijk approach this match with contrasting styles and form. The hosts' possession-heavy approach will clash with the visitors' high press, setting the stage for a dynamic encounter. Waalwijk, unbeaten in six league matches and having scored in 27 straight, bring a formidable attacking threat. Meanwhile, Jong Ajax appear vulnerable with their defensive frailties, conceding an average of 1.9 expected goals against.

The numbers tilt in favor of the visitors. Waalwijk's expected goals (2.12) exceed that of Jong Ajax (1.48), suggesting they will carve out more significant chances. Even though the head-to-head record since 2023 includes just two matches, Waalwijk's two wins underscore their recent dominance. Yet, this small sample should be weighed less than the current form and expected goals, which paint a clear picture of Waalwijk's edge.

The 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance for both teams to score indicate an open game despite the forecasted rain, which the model already accounts for. Most likely scorelines of 1-2 and 1-1 further reinforce a high-scoring affair where both sides are likely to find the net. This aligns with the playing styles, as Ajax's possession game will face relentless pressure from Waalwijk.

The sharpest angle lies in the betting market's mispricing of Waalwijk. With odds of 1.98 from bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and a model probability of 51%, there's a clear value bet on the visitors. Given the numbers and current form, backing Waalwijk to win seems the most astute play.

Jong Ajax

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #19xP/match #18Points #11

Key players

Pharell NashLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.33
Emre ÜnüvarRWxG 0.49 · xT 0.09
Alejandro Monserrate PueyoRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.11

Waalwijk

Form DDDDW

League ranking xG #13xGA #4xT #2xP/match #13Points #12

Key players

Finn StokkersFxG 0.67 · xT -0.02
Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.43
Faissal Al MazyaniRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Jong Ajax – Waalwijk

Predicted score matrix

Waalwijk →

Jong Ajax →

0–03.0%

0–15.5%

0–26.2%

0–34.4%

0–4+3.8%

1–03.8%

1–18.8%

1–29.1%

1–36.4%

1–4+5.6%

2–03.0%

2–16.3%

2–26.7%

2–34.8%

2–4+4.1%

3–01.5%

3–13.1%

3–23.3%

3–32.3%

3–4+2.0%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.7%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+1.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-29%
2.1-19%
3.2-27%
4.1-36%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,48–2,12

Both teams to score

68%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+29%

Under 2,530%

@2.95

Over 2,570%

@1.37

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Waalwijk to win51%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Waalwijk to win51%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Jesse van de Haar to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score68%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Jesse van de Haar to score27%
Mark Thomas Willem Verkuijl to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Waalwijk51% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
2 · Waalwijk51% probability@2.02BetssonEV+4%reference odds
2 · Waalwijk51% probability@2.02NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Jong Ajax	X	2 · Waalwijk
Betsafe	3.25	3.60	EV+ 4% 2.02
Betsson	3.25	3.60	EV+ 4% 2.02
Nordicbet	3.25	3.60	EV+ 4% 2.02

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 1.46 to 1.37 (−6%).

1-3 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.25

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.60 → 3.60

2+2 %

50 %45 %

1.98 → 2.02

Over 2,5-6 %

69 %64 %

1.46 → 1.37

Betsson · 17 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Jong Ajax 0Draw 0Waalwijk 2

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

RKC Waalwijk are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
RKC Waalwijk have scored in 27 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jong Ajax

Waalwijk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jong Ajax (12–14)

Waalwijk (10–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jong Ajax

Waalwijk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jong Ajax

Waalwijk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jong Ajax	Waalwijk
Points	7	7
xPoints	6	6.3
xG per match	1.3	1.3
xGA per match	1.9	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.34

Playing style	Jong Ajax	Waalwijk
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.44	0.64
xT per match	0.86	1.7
xTA per match	1.3	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.29
Entries into the box per match	10	19
Entries into the box against	15	9
Pass completion %	0.78	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	357	382
Passes against per match	310	316
Switches of play per match	31.3	27.8
Long balls per match	39	38

Set pieces	Jong Ajax	Waalwijk
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	4.3	3
Corners against per match	7.6	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.61

Other	Jong Ajax	Waalwijk
Throw-in control	0.71	0.7

The goalkeepers	Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax)	Niek Schiks (Waalwijk)
Saves	26	14
Save %	67%	64%
xG prevented	36%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk according to our model?

The model gives Waalwijk a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Ajax 29%, draw 20%, Waalwijk 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.