01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Volendam or draw (X2)61%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Eerste Divisie16°2,7 mm32 km/h
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Jong AZPossession controlvs
VolendamPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Volendam (41%)
Jong AZ – Volendam · Eerste Divisie
1 · Jong AZ 35%X 24%41% Volendam · 2
35%
24%
41%
Analysis: Jong AZ – Volendam
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The model gives Volendam a narrow edge with a 41% win probability against Jong AZ's 35%, hinting at a tight contest. Despite Jong AZ having a slightly better points tally and marginally higher expected points, Volendam's offensive xG of 2.1 per match stands out, indicating their potent attacking threat. However, both teams share a possession control style, possibly leading to a closely fought midfield battle.
Recent head-to-head encounters, though a small sample of just two games, have all gone Volendam's way. Yet, the expected goals data for the hosts is robust at 1.61, suggesting they can break through Volendam's defense, which concedes 1.3 xGA per match. This sets the stage for a potentially balanced scoreline, with the 1-1 result featuring prominently at an 11% likelihood.
The over 2.5 goals market leans towards a high-scoring game at 61% likelihood, and both teams are expected to find the net. Volendam, as the visitors, could capitalize on their head-to-head edge and attacking efficiency.
Jong AZForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #12xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Ayoub OufkirFxG 0.52 · xT 0.24
- Julian OeripCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Jesper ZwartRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
VolendamForm LWLWL
League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #11xP/match #9Points #13
Key players
- Reuven NiemeijerFxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
- Henk VeermanLWxG 0.84 · xT 0.11
- Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Jong AZ – Volendam
Predicted score matrix
Volendam →
Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.7%
0–16.3%
0–25.1%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–06.7%
1–111.0%
1–28.2%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.6%
2–18.6%
2–26.6%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–03.0%
3–14.6%
3–23.5%
3–31.8%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.6%
4+–22.0%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,61–1,53
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
–
Over 2,561%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Volendam or draw (X2)61%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Henk Veerman to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Bendegúz Kovács to score27%
- Julian Sijbrands to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesJong AZ 0Draw 0Volendam 2
Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jong AZ
Volendam
Jong AZ (15–12)
Volendam (14–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jong AZ
Volendam
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jong AZ
Volendam
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jong AZ | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 6 |
| xPoints | 9.2 | 7.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Jong AZ | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 398 | 359 |
| Passes against per match | 351 | 332 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.8 | 29.8 |
| Long balls per match | 48 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Jong AZ | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| Other | Jong AZ | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ) | Roy Johannes Maria Steur (Volendam) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 18 |
| Save % | 59% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- TOP Oss – Dordrecht18 September 2026
- Jong Almere City – Heracles Almelo18 September 2026
- Jong Ajax – Roda18 September 2026
- Waalwijk – MVV Maastricht18 September 2026
- Den Bosch – Helmond Sport18 September 2026
- Jong Utrecht – VVV-Venlo18 September 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Emmen18 September 2026
- Vitesse – Jong PSV19 September 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jong AZ vs Volendam according to our model?
The model gives Volendam a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong AZ 35%, draw 24%, Volendam 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.