Eerste Divisie18°5,2 mm19 km/h

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    De GraafschapDe GraafschapPossession & high press
    1–4
    Jong Almere CityJong Almere CityLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · De Graafschap (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Jong Almere City @ 2.72 (+2 %)

    De Graafschap – Jong Almere City · Eerste Divisie

    1 · De Graafschap 45%X 17%37% Jong Almere City · 2

    Analysis: De Graafschap – Jong Almere City

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    De Graafschap's 62% home win record in their 39 all-time matches underscores their reputation as a formidable host. Despite sitting on just one point this season, their expected goals advantage and possession-based style hint at potential against Jong Almere City. Meanwhile, the visitors have collected six points but lag in xPoints, while matching the hosts on xG per match and conceding at a slightly higher expected rate (xGA), suggesting their current form may be flattering.

    The model sees De Graafschap as slight favorites with a 45% chance of victory, while Jong Almere City is not far behind at 37%. The probabilities align with the most likely scorelines pointing towards a high-scoring affair, notably a 2-1 win for the hosts or a 1-1 draw. Given the 72% chance for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams scoring, the numbers suggest goals, though rain could dampen the spectacle somewhat.

    For value seekers, the away win at 2.72 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers a 2% edge according to the model. While not a guaranteed outcome, this slight margin could entice those looking for an edge in a closely contested matchup.

    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    Form WLDLL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #8xP/match #19Points #18
    Key players
    • Denzel EijkenFxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
    • Joran HardemanCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.13
    • Julian KaniaFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
    Jong Almere CityJong Almere City
    Form WW
    League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #14xP/match #14Points #4
    Key players
    • Emanuel PokuFxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
    • Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.72 · xT 0.06
    • Byron BurgeringRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.23
    Final score
    1 – 4
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: De Graafschap 45% · Draw 17% · Jong Almere City 37%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - De GraafschapBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,02fair 4,22-5 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Almere City FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,77fair 7,87-39 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: De Graafschap – Jong Almere City

    Predicted score matrix

    Jong Almere City →
    De Graafschap →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.6%
    0–13.5%
    0–23.0%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–04.8%
    1–18.3%
    1–26.4%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.4%
    2–18.7%
    2–26.9%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–16.3%
    3–25.0%
    3–32.7%
    3–4+1.5%
    4+
    4+–03.5%
    4+–15.6%
    4+–24.5%
    4+–32.4%
    4+–4+1.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-19%
    2. 2.1-18%
    3. 3.2-27%
    4. 4.1-26%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    2,16–1,60
    Both teams to score
    71%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,8
    Under 2,528%
    @3.55
    Over 2,572%
    @1.27

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • De Graafschap to win45%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.21

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • De Graafschap to win45%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Arjen van der Heide to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score71%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Arjen van der Heide to score23%
    • Jereno van Gom to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Jong Almere City37% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Jong Almere City37% probability@2.72BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Jong Almere City37% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · De GraafschapX2 · Jong Almere City
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    2.22    		3.85
    EV+ 2%
    2.72
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    2.22    		3.85
    EV+ 2%
    2.72
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    2.22    		3.85
    EV+ 2%
    2.72

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.35 to 1.27 (−6%).

    1+3 %
    44 %39 %

    2.15 → 2.22

    X+7 %
    27 %22 %

    3.60 → 3.85

    2-5 %
    36 %31 %

    2.85 → 2.72

    Over 2,5-6 %
    74 %69 %

    1.35 → 1.27

    Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • De Graafschap win 62% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    De Graafschap
    Jong Almere City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    De Graafschap (4–8)
    Jong Almere City (6–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    De Graafschap
    Gijs Bolk: 164 passningar, xT 0.41BolkJoran Hardeman: 158 passningar, xT 0.35HardemanKaya Symons: 142 passningar, xT 0.59SymonsDonny Warmerdam: 128 passningar, xT 0.14WarmerdamTies Wieggers: 113 passningar, xT 0.07WieggersRowan Besselink: 109 passningar, xT 0.15BesselinkJason Meerstadt: 94 passningar, xT 0.67MeerstadtClint Leemans: 70 passningar, xT 0.47LeemansNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 52 passningar, xT 0.18Ahmeti-GraincaFedde de Jong: 48 passningar, xT 0.38JongToivo Mero: 37 passningar, xT 0.14Mero
    Jong Almere City
    Teun Bijleveld: 63 passningar, xT 0.1BijleveldWessel Speel: 56 passningar, xT 0.07SpeelJoey Jacobs: 51 passningar, xT 0.1JacobsEmmanuel van de Blaak: 41 passningar, xT 0.05BlaakEnzo Cornelisse: 35 passningar, xT 0.46CornelisseJames Lawrence: 32 passningar, xT 0LawrenceDamian van Bruggen: 28 passningar, xT -0.02BruggenJereno van Gom: 23 passningar, xT 0.03GomHamza El Dahri: 22 passningar, xT 0.07DahriMees Hoedemakers: 22 passningar, xT 0.09HoedemakersEmanuel Poku: 20 passningar, xT 0.25Poku
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    De Graafschap
    Gijs Bolk: 164 passningar, xT 0.41BolkJoran Hardeman: 158 passningar, xT 0.35HardemanKaya Symons: 142 passningar, xT 0.59SymonsDonny Warmerdam: 128 passningar, xT 0.14WarmerdamTies Wieggers: 113 passningar, xT 0.07WieggersRowan Besselink: 109 passningar, xT 0.15BesselinkJason Meerstadt: 94 passningar, xT 0.67MeerstadtClint Leemans: 70 passningar, xT 0.47LeemansNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 52 passningar, xT 0.18Ahmeti-GraincaFedde de Jong: 48 passningar, xT 0.38JongToivo Mero: 37 passningar, xT 0.14Mero
    Jong Almere City
    Teun Bijleveld: 63 passningar, xT 0.1BijleveldWessel Speel: 56 passningar, xT 0.07SpeelJoey Jacobs: 51 passningar, xT 0.1JacobsEmmanuel van de Blaak: 41 passningar, xT 0.05BlaakEnzo Cornelisse: 35 passningar, xT 0.46CornelisseJames Lawrence: 32 passningar, xT 0LawrenceDamian van Bruggen: 28 passningar, xT -0.02BruggenJereno van Gom: 23 passningar, xT 0.03GomHamza El Dahri: 22 passningar, xT 0.07DahriMees Hoedemakers: 22 passningar, xT 0.09HoedemakersEmanuel Poku: 20 passningar, xT 0.25Poku

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDe GraafschapJong Almere City
    Points16
    xPoints2.82.2
    xG per match1.21.2
    xGA per match1.81.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.090.1
    Playing styleDe GraafschapJong Almere City
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.570.27
    xT per match1.41
    xTA per match0.991.4
    Won balls, offensive half2618
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.370.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.2
    Entries into the box per match1713
    Entries into the box against1516
    Pass completion %0.780.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.66
    Passes per match405241
    Passes against per match273431
    Switches of play per match48.525.4
    Long balls per match5239
    Set piecesDe GraafschapJong Almere City
    xG from free kicks0.070.03
    Corners per match4.33
    Corners against per match4.67.1
    xG per corner0.030.07
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.690.67
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.5
    OtherDe GraafschapJong Almere City
    Throw-in control0.80.76
    The goalkeepersTies Wieggers (De Graafschap)Wessel Speel (Jong Almere City)
    Saves910
    Save %53%91%
    xG prevented36%88%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    De Graafschap
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jong Almere City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins De Graafschap vs Jong Almere City according to our model?

    The model gives De Graafschap a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: De Graafschap 45%, draw 17%, Jong Almere City 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 71% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.