Dordrecht vs Jong AZ: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie5 September 202619°23 km/h

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DordrechtPossession control

3–6

Jong AZPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Dordrecht (45%)

1 · Dordrecht 45%X 25%31% Jong AZ · 2

45%

25%

31%

Analysis: Dordrecht – Jong AZ

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The numbers suggest an intriguing tilt between Dordrecht and Jong AZ, where the hosts have a slight statistical edge, yet their form is less compelling than the model might imply. Despite Dordrecht's 45% win probability and a model lean in their favor, the expected goals for both sides are close: 1.89 for Dordrecht against 1.53 for the visitors. This balance hints at a tense affair, with both teams capable of finding the net.

The head-to-head record, though inconclusive with just four encounters, shows parity with each team claiming a win and drawing twice. However, when delving into form, Jong AZ's stronger xPoints of 7.1 compared to Dordrecht’s 4.0 emphasizes their potential to outperform, aligning with their role as slight underdogs worth considering. Their xG and defensive stats give them a real chance to unsettle the hosts, despite the possession-control style that both teams favor.

The goal prediction leans heavily toward a scoreline exceeding 2.5 goals, at a hefty 66% chance, supported by a 67% likelihood of both teams scoring. While Dordrecht seems more poised to control the game, Jong AZ's efficiency could exploit Dordrecht's leaky defense, averaging 2.2 xGA per match. This defensive vulnerability makes a 1-1 or 2-1 result plausible, with the former being the most likely at 10%.

In the betting market, the potential value lies with Dordrecht's outright win at odds above the implied probability of 45%. However, given the visitors' edge in xG-related metrics and the high chance of goals, the over 2.5 goals market should tempt bettors seeking value.

Favoring Dordrecht for a narrow 2-1 win acknowledges their statistical backing but underscores the volatility and the likely goal-rich nature of this matchup.

Dordrecht

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #21xT #8xP/match #19Points #15

Key players

Sem ValkCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Martin VetkalFxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Nick VenemaRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.36

Jong AZ

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #4xT #16xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Ayoub OufkirFxG 0.52 · xT 0.24
Julian OeripCAMxG 0.22 · xT 0.11
Jesper ZwartRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

Final score

3 – 6

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Dordrecht 45% · Draw 25% · Jong AZ 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - DordrechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,78fair 5,35-11 %

Miss

Match prediction: Dordrecht – Jong AZ

Predicted score matrix

Jong AZ →

Dordrecht →

0–03.6%

0–14.8%

0–23.8%

0–32.0%

0–4+1.1%

1–05.9%

1–19.8%

1–27.2%

1–33.7%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.9%

2–18.9%

2–26.8%

2–33.5%

2–4+1.9%

3–03.7%

3–15.6%

3–24.3%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.2%

4+–02.7%

4+–14.1%

4+–23.1%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,89–1,53

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.72

Over 2,566%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Dordrecht or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Dordrecht or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Seung-Gyun Bae to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Seung-Gyun Bae to score25%
Julian Sijbrands to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Dordrecht	X	2 · Jong AZ
Betsafe	2.22	3.60	2.80
Betsson	2.22	3.60	2.80
Nordicbet	2.22	3.60	2.80

Odds updated 4 Sept, 02:37

Odds movement

10 %

44 %39 %

2.22 → 2.22

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.60

20 %

36 %31 %

2.80 → 2.80

Over 2,5+2 %

68 %63 %

1.41 → 1.44

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Dordrecht 1Draw 2Jong AZ 1

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dordrecht

Jong AZ

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dordrecht (5–10)

Jong AZ (9–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dordrecht

Jong AZ

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dordrecht

Jong AZ

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dordrecht	Jong AZ
Points	4	6
xPoints	4	7.1
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	2.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.11

Playing style	Dordrecht	Jong AZ
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.54	0.55
xT per match	1.3	1
xTA per match	1	0.9
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	18
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.73
Passes per match	369	413
Passes against per match	298	346
Switches of play per match	28.2	26.8
Long balls per match	51	52

Set pieces	Dordrecht	Jong AZ
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.02
Corners per match	5.8	4.7
Corners against per match	4.5	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.62

Other	Dordrecht	Jong AZ
Throw-in control	0.69	0.83

The goalkeepers	Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)	Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)
Saves	17	8
Save %	63%	67%
xG prevented	41%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dordrecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Jong AZ

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dordrecht vs Jong AZ according to our model?

The model gives Dordrecht a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dordrecht 45%, draw 25%, Jong AZ 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.