FC Eindhoven vs Emmen: Prediction & Odds (18 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie18 September 202615°0,6 mm24 km/h

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FC EindhovenPossession control

EmmenBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Emmen (58%)

1 · FC Eindhoven 20%X 22%58% Emmen · 2

20%

22%

58%

Analysis: FC Eindhoven – Emmen

Oscar Nilsson · 10 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Eindhoven's possession control faces a stern test against Emmen's balanced and physical approach. Despite the hosts' attempts to dictate the game with the ball, they face a steep uphill battle. The numbers paint a clear picture: Eindhoven has only collected 4 points compared to Emmen's 12, with expected goals per match heavily favoring the visitors at 1.9 to 1.0.

A small head-to-head sample of four matches reveals an even split, with Eindhoven claiming two victories, but this weighs less than the recent form and underlying stats. Emmen's defensive solidity is evident with an expected goals against of 1.3 compared to Eindhoven's leaky 1.8. These figures suggest that the visitors are not only more likely to score but also better equipped to handle Eindhoven's attacking threats.

The expected goals further bolster Emmen's position, with Eindhoven projected at 1.21 and Emmen at 1.95. This aligns with the model's lean towards Emmen at 58%. The most likely scorelines are tightly contested: both a 1-1 and a 1-2 outcome sit at 10%, suggesting the match might stay competitive but with Emmen more likely to edge it. A 0-2 win for Emmen also lurks at 8%, reinforcing their potential dominance.

With rain potentially damping offensive flow, the over 2.5 goals market at 61% still leans towards a lively encounter, but the smarter play might just be backing Emmen outright.

FC Eindhoven

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #21xGA #15xT #21xP/match #17Points #16

Key players

Siegert BaartmansFxG 0.23 · xT -0.04
Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Kevin van VeenRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.05

Emmen

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #6xP/match #6Points #3

Key players

Jack Cooper-LoveFxG 0.56 · xT 0.05
Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
Michael John BreijRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: FC Eindhoven – Emmen

Predicted score matrix

Emmen →

FC Eindhoven →

0–04.5%

0–18.0%

0–28.1%

0–35.3%

0–4+4.0%

1–04.8%

1–110.3%

1–29.8%

1–36.3%

1–4+4.8%

2–03.1%

2–16.1%

2–25.9%

2–33.8%

2–4+2.9%

3–01.3%

3–12.4%

3–22.4%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.5%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,21–1,95

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Emmen to win58%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Emmen to win58%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Jack Cooper-Love to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Jack Cooper-Love to score26%
Clint Essers to be booked19%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

FC Eindhoven 2Draw 0Emmen 2

Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Eindhoven

Emmen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Eindhoven (6–11)

Emmen (15–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Eindhoven

Emmen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Eindhoven

Emmen

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Eindhoven	Emmen
Points	4	12
xPoints	5.2	7.7
xG per match	1	1.9
xGA per match	1.8	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.08

Playing style	FC Eindhoven	Emmen
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.41	0.62
xT per match	0.71	1.6
xTA per match	1.2	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	26	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.3
Entries into the box per match	10	21
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.69	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.76
Passes per match	289	369
Passes against per match	358	338
Switches of play per match	16.7	24.7
Long balls per match	38	31

Set pieces	FC Eindhoven	Emmen
xG from free kicks	0.04	0
Corners per match	3.6	5.6
Corners against per match	6	2.6
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.62

Other	FC Eindhoven	Emmen
Throw-in control	0.78	0.76

The goalkeepers	Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven)	Sam Karssies (Emmen)
Saves	17	13
Save %	61%	52%
xG prevented	25%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

FC Eindhoven

Fixtures, form & tips

Emmen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Eindhoven vs Emmen according to our model?

The model gives Emmen a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Eindhoven 20%, draw 22%, Emmen 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.