Eerste Divisie14°1,0 mm15 km/h

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    EmmenEmmenBalanced & physical
    vs
    De GraafschapDe GraafschapBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Emmen (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · De Graafschap @ 4.25 (+21 %)

    Emmen – De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Emmen 47%X 25%29% De Graafschap · 2

    Analysis: Emmen – De Graafschap

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Emmen's 47% win probability stands out as the key figure here, reflecting their stronger recent form and statistical edges. The hosts have garnered 12 points compared to De Graafschap's meager 1, alongside superior xG and xGA metrics. Emmen's xG of 1.9 per match significantly surpasses the visitors' 1.2, highlighting their attacking potential. The visitors are on a four-match losing streak, which further tilts the scales in favor of the hosts.

    Despite a small head-to-head sample, Emmen's record of three wins in four matches since 2023 suggests a psychological and tactical upper hand. However, the expected goals for both teams and model's most likely scorelines point to a close match, with a 65% chance for both teams to score and for the total to exceed 2.5 goals. The expected rain could temper some attacking momentum, but this is already considered in the model's numbers.

    The sharpest angle lies with the under 2.5 goals market, where Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 3.35. The model rates this outcome at 35%, presenting a 19% value edge. While the game leans towards Emmen, the potential for fewer goals than anticipated offers a compelling betting angle.

    EmmenEmmen
    Form WWWLW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #6xP/match #6Points #3
    Key players
    • Jack Cooper-LoveFxG 0.56 · xT 0.05
    • Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
    • Michael John BreijRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.19
    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    Form DLLLL
    League ranking xG #17xGA #18xT #15xP/match #20Points #21
    Key players
    • Denzel EijkenFxG 0.12 · xT 0.01
    • Joran HardemanCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
    • Julian KaniaFxG 0.38 · xT -0.02

    Match prediction: Emmen – De Graafschap

    Predicted score matrix

    De Graafschap →
    Emmen →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.9%
    0–15.0%
    0–23.8%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–06.4%
    1–110.1%
    1–27.2%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–06.3%
    2–19.1%
    2–26.7%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–15.7%
    3–24.1%
    3–32.0%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–02.8%
    4+–14.0%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,86–1,46
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @3.05EV+8%
    Over 2,565%
    @1.35

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Emmen to win47%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.48

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Emmen to win47%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Jack Cooper-Love to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Julian Kania to score25%
    • Alessandro Feridun Hojabrpour to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · De Graafschap29% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
    • 2 · De Graafschap29% probability@4.25BetssonEV+21%reference odds
    • 2 · De Graafschap29% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · EmmenX2 · De Graafschap
    Betsafe1.703.85
    EV+ 21%
    4.25
    Betsson1.703.85
    EV+ 21%
    4.25
    Nordicbet1.703.85
    EV+ 21%
    4.25

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Emmen win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 2.08 to 1.70 (−18%).

    1-18 %
    59 %39 %

    2.08 → 1.70

    X0 %
    34 %14 %

    3.85 → 3.85

    2+44 %
    37 %17 %

    2.95 → 4.25

    Over 2,5+5 %
    81 %61 %

    1.29 → 1.35

    Nordicbet · 26 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Emmen 3Draw 0De Graafschap 1
    Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • De Graafschap have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Emmen
    De Graafschap
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Emmen (15–12)
    De Graafschap (5–17)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Emmen
    Yanis Dede-Lhomme: 274 passningar, xT 1.58Dede-LhommeJoshua Mukeh: 227 passningar, xT 0.12MukehLuca Everink: 218 passningar, xT 0.66EverinkCasper Staring: 189 passningar, xT 0.86StaringBryan Albert Van Hove: 162 passningar, xT 0.52HoveMichael John Breij: 157 passningar, xT 0.82BreijSam Karssies: 130 passningar, xT 0.32KarssiesFreddy Quispel: 95 passningar, xT 0.2QuispelSybrand Veldhuis: 68 passningar, xT 0.44VeldhuisJack Cooper-Love: 67 passningar, xT 0.07Cooper-LoveNelson Efosa Amadin: 64 passningar, xT 0.43Amadin
    De Graafschap
    Donny Warmerdam: 225 passningar, xT 0.19WarmerdamGijs Bolk: 211 passningar, xT 0.53BolkRowan Besselink: 196 passningar, xT 0.17BesselinkTies Wieggers: 185 passningar, xT 0.22WieggersKaya Symons: 177 passningar, xT 0.62SymonsJoran Hardeman: 162 passningar, xT 0.35HardemanJason Meerstadt: 158 passningar, xT 0.71MeerstadtThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 126 passningar, xT 0.08KokNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 104 passningar, xT 0.27Ahmeti-GraincaToivo Mero: 96 passningar, xT 0.45MeroClint Leemans: 70 passningar, xT 0.47Leemans
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Emmen
    Yanis Dede-Lhomme: 274 passningar, xT 1.58Dede-LhommeJoshua Mukeh: 227 passningar, xT 0.12MukehLuca Everink: 218 passningar, xT 0.66EverinkCasper Staring: 189 passningar, xT 0.86StaringBryan Albert Van Hove: 162 passningar, xT 0.52HoveMichael John Breij: 157 passningar, xT 0.82BreijSam Karssies: 130 passningar, xT 0.32KarssiesFreddy Quispel: 95 passningar, xT 0.2QuispelSybrand Veldhuis: 68 passningar, xT 0.44VeldhuisJack Cooper-Love: 67 passningar, xT 0.07Cooper-LoveNelson Efosa Amadin: 64 passningar, xT 0.43Amadin
    De Graafschap
    Donny Warmerdam: 225 passningar, xT 0.19WarmerdamGijs Bolk: 211 passningar, xT 0.53BolkRowan Besselink: 196 passningar, xT 0.17BesselinkTies Wieggers: 185 passningar, xT 0.22WieggersKaya Symons: 177 passningar, xT 0.62SymonsJoran Hardeman: 162 passningar, xT 0.35HardemanJason Meerstadt: 158 passningar, xT 0.71MeerstadtThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 126 passningar, xT 0.08KokNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 104 passningar, xT 0.27Ahmeti-GraincaToivo Mero: 96 passningar, xT 0.45MeroClint Leemans: 70 passningar, xT 0.47Leemans

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceEmmenDe Graafschap
    Points121
    xPoints7.74.7
    xG per match1.91.2
    xGA per match1.32
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.1
    Playing styleEmmenDe Graafschap
    Build-up efficiency0.340.32
    Field tilt0.620.55
    xT per match1.61
    xTA per match0.931.3
    Won balls, offensive half2825
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.310.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.33
    Entries into the box per match2113
    Entries into the box against1014
    Pass completion %0.770.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.7
    Passes per match369397
    Passes against per match338282
    Switches of play per match24.739.5
    Long balls per match3148
    Set piecesEmmenDe Graafschap
    xG from free kicks00.04
    Corners per match5.64.6
    Corners against per match2.64.8
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.7
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.79
    OtherEmmenDe Graafschap
    Throw-in control0.760.77
    The goalkeepersSam Karssies (Emmen)Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap)
    Saves1315
    Save %52%47%
    xG prevented34%27%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Emmen vs De Graafschap according to our model?

    The model gives Emmen a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Emmen 47%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.