Emmen vs Volendam: Prediction & Odds (4 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie4 September 202618°2,6 mm28 km/h

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EmmenBalanced & physical

VolendamPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Emmen (44%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.82 (+21 %)

1 · Emmen 44%X 28%29% Volendam · 2

44%

28%

29%

Analysis: Emmen – Volendam

Sofia Andersson · 3 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The numbers hint at a tight affair between Emmen and Volendam, with Emmen holding a slight edge in the model's eyes. The home side is given a 44% chance to secure victory, a reflection of their slightly better league position. However, Volendam's superior xG per match at 2.4 compared to Emmen's 1.9 suggests the visitors could create more high-quality chances. This clash of styles — Emmen's physicality against Volendam's possession play — may define the game.

Despite Emmen's three-point lead in actual points, the xPoints tell a different story, slightly favoring Volendam with 6.6 to Emmen's 5.9. This discrepancy highlights the hosts' tendency to overperform relative to their underlying metrics. The head-to-head record since 2023 is balanced at one win each, but with only two matches played, it's not a reliable predictor of the outcome.

Weather conditions could play a part, with 3.4 mm of rain expected, potentially dampening attacking play and already considered in the model's cautious 57% chance for over 2.5 goals. Both teams seem likely to find the net, with a 59% probability of both scoring. Given these dynamics, a 1-1 draw is the most probable scoreline at 11%, followed closely by a narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts.

The sharpest angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer this at odds of 2.82, presenting a 21% edge according to the model's valuation. While the match promises potential for goals, the sizable edge on the under makes it a compelling option for those looking for value.

Emmen

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #3xP/match #9Points #5

Key players

Jack Cooper-LoveFxG 0.65 · xT 0.04
Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
Michael John BreijRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.20

Volendam

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #12xP/match #5Points #11

Key players

Nick DoodemanRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.42
Henk VeermanLWxG 0.91 · xT 0.15
Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Emmen – Volendam

Predicted score matrix

Volendam →

Emmen →

0–05.4%

0–16.0%

0–24.0%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.7%

1–08.5%

1–111.3%

1–26.9%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.6%

2–19.5%

2–25.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.4%

3–15.5%

3–23.4%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.8%

4+–13.5%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,73–1,25

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.82EV+21%

Over 2,557%

@1.41

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Emmen or draw (1X)73%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Emmen or draw (1X)73%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Freddy Quispel to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Freddy Quispel to score24%
Nick Verschuren to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.543% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
Under 2.543% probability@2.82BetssonEV+21%reference odds
Under 2.543% probability@2.82NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Emmen	X	2 · Volendam
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 2.32	3.60	2.65
Betsson	EV+ 2% 2.32	3.60	2.65
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 2.32	3.60	2.65

Odds updated 4 Sept, 00:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Emmen win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 3.05 to 2.32 (−24%).

1-24 %

45 %25 %

3.05 → 2.32

X0 %

36 %16 %

3.60 → 3.60

2+29 %

49 %29 %

2.05 → 2.65

Over 2,5-9 %

74 %54 %

1.55 → 1.41

Betsson · 17 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Emmen 1Draw 0Volendam 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Emmen

Volendam

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Emmen (10–9)

Volendam (11–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Emmen

Volendam

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Emmen

Volendam

The teams in numbers

Performance	Emmen	Volendam
Points	9	6
xPoints	5.9	6.6
xG per match	1.9	2.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.02	0.05

Playing style	Emmen	Volendam
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.59	0.53
xT per match	1.6	1.2
xTA per match	0.93	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	29	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.27
Entries into the box per match	20	14
Entries into the box against	10	10
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.69
Passes per match	380	366
Passes against per match	340	333
Switches of play per match	26.1	31
Long balls per match	32	42

Set pieces	Emmen	Volendam
xG from free kicks	0	0.34
Corners per match	5.5	4.8
Corners against per match	2.8	6.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.72

Other	Emmen	Volendam
Throw-in control	0.78	0.76

The goalkeepers	Sam Karssies (Emmen)	Roy Johannes Maria Steur (Volendam)
Saves	9	13
Save %	50%	77%
xG prevented	34%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Emmen vs Volendam according to our model?

The model gives Emmen a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Emmen 44%, draw 28%, Volendam 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.