Volendam vs Den Bosch: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie13 September 202618°12,4 mm18 km/h

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VolendamPossession control

Den BoschPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Volendam (61%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.88 (+2 %)

1 · Volendam 61%X 20%19% Den Bosch · 2

61%

20%

19%

Analysis: Volendam – Den Bosch

Oscar Nilsson · 8 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Volendam and Den Bosch have clashed just twice since 2023, with each side claiming one win — a tiny sample that's less telling than current form. The hosts hold a slight edge in points with 6 to Den Bosch's 4, but the visitors are narrowly ahead on expected points, suggesting a closer battle than the standings imply.

Volendam dominate at home with an impressive 81% win rate over 21 games. They're built around possession control, and their expected goals of 2.27 for this match hint at their attacking prowess. Meanwhile, Den Bosch, who play a high pressing game, have consistently found the net in 17 consecutive matches, underlining their ability to pressure defenses and score.

The model leans strongly towards Volendam with a 61% win probability, painting them as favorites. Expected goals also favor the hosts, but Den Bosch's ability to score can't be ignored. The chances of both teams finding the back of the net stand at 63%, aligning with Den Bosch's scoring streak. Despite the expected rain, which might dampen goal-scoring opportunities, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals remains high at 67%.

Bookmakers may have overlooked the tenacity of Den Bosch, who have a knack for unsettling their opponents. The most compelling angle lies with the "both teams to score" market, reflecting Den Bosch's relentless attack and Volendam's home dominance. The match likely concludes with a 2-1 victory for Volendam, but don't be surprised if Den Bosch makes it a closer contest than anticipated.

Volendam

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #11xP/match #9Points #13

Key players

Reuven NiemeijerFxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
Henk VeermanLWxG 0.84 · xT 0.11
Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06

Den Bosch

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #4xP/match #7Points #15

Key players

Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.59 · xT -0.01
Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.44 · xT 0.28
Jack Winston De VriesRWxG 0.54 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Volendam – Den Bosch

Predicted score matrix

Den Bosch →

Volendam →

0–03.4%

0–13.5%

0–22.2%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–06.8%

1–18.7%

1–25.1%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.0%

2–19.6%

2–25.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–06.1%

3–17.3%

3–24.4%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.7%

4+–05.9%

4+–17.0%

4+–24.2%

4+–31.7%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-08%
4.3-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,27–1,20

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

@3.05

Over 2,567%

@1.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Volendam to win61%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Volendam to win61%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Henk Veerman to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Henk Veerman to score30%
Stan Maas to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.554% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Under 3.554% probability@1.88BetssonEV+2%reference odds
Under 3.554% probability@1.88NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Volendam	X	2 · Den Bosch
Betsafe	1.62	4.05	4.25
Betsson	1.62	4.05	4.25
Nordicbet	1.62	4.05	4.25

Odds updated 11 Sept, 09:39

Odds movement

1+1 %

59 %54 %

1.60 → 1.62

X-2 %

25 %20 %

4.15 → 4.05

2-3 %

24 %19 %

4.40 → 4.25

Over 2,5-2 %

72 %67 %

1.35 → 1.32

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Volendam 1Draw 0Den Bosch 1

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

Den Bosch have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.
FC Volendam win 81% of their home matches all-time (21 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Volendam

Den Bosch

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Volendam (14–10)

Den Bosch (10–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Volendam

Den Bosch

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Volendam

Den Bosch

The teams in numbers

Performance	Volendam	Den Bosch
Points	6	4
xPoints	7.5	7.7
xG per match	2.1	2
xGA per match	1.3	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.23

Playing style	Volendam	Den Bosch
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.47	0.53
xT per match	1.1	1.6
xTA per match	1	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	25	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.34
Entries into the box per match	13	16
Entries into the box against	13	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.65
Passes per match	359	280
Passes against per match	332	280
Switches of play per match	29.8	18.5
Long balls per match	41	36

Set pieces	Volendam	Den Bosch
xG from free kicks	0.27	0.06
Corners per match	4.3	8.9
Corners against per match	6.3	4.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.5

Other	Volendam	Den Bosch
Throw-in control	0.77	0.74

The goalkeepers	Roy Johannes Maria Steur (Volendam)	Pepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)
Saves	18	25
Save %	67%	68%
xG prevented	41%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Volendam

Fixtures, form & tips

Den Bosch

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Volendam vs Den Bosch according to our model?

The model gives Volendam a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volendam 61%, draw 20%, Den Bosch 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.