Eerste Divisie16°13 km/h

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    Heracles AlmeloHeracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Jong AZJong AZPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Heracles Almelo (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Jong AZ @ 6.30 (+48 %)

    Heracles Almelo – Jong AZ · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Heracles Almelo 54%X 22%24% Jong AZ · 2

    Analysis: Heracles Almelo – Jong AZ

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Heracles Almelo's recent form is impossible to ignore: five straight wins mark them as the team to beat in this Eerste Divisie clash. This streak aligns with their statistical dominance, boasting an xG per match of 2.7 which significantly outpaces the young visitors from AZ, who manage just 1.6. The hosts also maintain a tighter defense, with xGA figures of 0.92 compared to Jong AZ's 1.1. Heracles' counter-attacking proficiency coupled with their aerial threat should prove a tough proposition for the possession-focused Jong AZ.

    Despite Heracles' apparent superiority, the model offers a glimmer of hope for the visitors with a calculated 24% chance of victory. This edge translates into value on the betting market, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 6.3 for an away win — a significant 48% edge on the model's valuation. Such potential return should catch the eye of value-seekers looking for a riskier punt.

    Scoreline predictions are tight, with the model slightly favoring a 1-1 draw or a narrow 2-1 home victory. The expected goals tally of Heracles at 1.85 and Jong AZ at 1.54 suggests that both sides are likely to find the net. The probability of both teams scoring and the over 2.5 goals market each stand at 66%, indicating a lively encounter with several goals expected.

    While Heracles look poised to extend their winning streak, the potential for an upset cannot be dismissed — particularly given the attractive odds on offer. The single most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw, though a narrow 2-1 win for the hosts also aligns with their form and statistical superiority. Yet, for those willing to trust the numbers and take a calculated risk, backing Jong AZ at 6.3 could offer a rewarding venture.

    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #5xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Jean-Paul N'djoliLWxG 0.83 · xT 0.13
    • Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
    • Tristan van GilstCAMxG 0.87 · xT 0.24
    Jong AZJong AZ
    Form WLLWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #12xP/match #8Points #8
    Key players
    • Ayoub OufkirFxG 0.52 · xT 0.24
    • Julian OeripCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
    • Jesper ZwartRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Heracles Almelo – Jong AZ

    Predicted score matrix

    Jong AZ →
    Heracles Almelo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.7%
    0–14.9%
    0–24.0%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–06.0%
    1–19.9%
    1–27.4%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.8%
    2–18.9%
    2–26.8%
    2–33.5%
    2–4+1.9%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–15.5%
    3–24.2%
    3–32.2%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.8%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,85–1,54
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    @3.55EV+22%
    Over 2,566%
    @1.24

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Heracles Almelo to win54%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.58

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Heracles Almelo to win54%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Luka Kulenović to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Luka Kulenović to score30%
    • Julian Sijbrands to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Jong AZ24% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+48%reference odds
    • 2 · Jong AZ24% probability@6.30BetssonEV+48%reference odds
    • 2 · Jong AZ24% probability@6.30NordicbetEV+48%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Heracles AlmeloX2 · Jong AZ
    Betsafe1.38
    EV+ 7%
    4.80
    EV+ 48%
    6.30
    Betsson1.38
    EV+ 7%
    4.80
    EV+ 48%
    6.30
    Nordicbet1.38
    EV+ 7%
    4.80
    EV+ 48%
    6.30

    Odds updated 10 Sept, 08:36

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    68 %63 %

    1.43 → 1.38

    X0 %
    22 %17 %

    4.80 → 4.80

    2+17 %
    18 %13 %

    5.40 → 6.30

    Over 2,50 %
    76 %71 %

    1.24 → 1.24

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Heracles Almelo come into this round on 5 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Heracles Almelo
    Jong AZ
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Heracles Almelo (21–7)
    Jong AZ (15–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 206 passningar, xT 0.48MiraniDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 175 passningar, xT 0.22KustDavid Vicente Robles: 168 passningar, xT 0.91RoblesSem Scheperman: 140 passningar, xT 0.11SchepermanFabian de Keijzer: 140 passningar, xT 0.57KeijzerMario Borac: 111 passningar, xT 0.14BoracMax Hauswirth: 107 passningar, xT 0.23HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 106 passningar, xT 0.72GilstManny Rodriguez Baldera: 100 passningar, xT 0.55BalderaChafik Abbas: 77 passningar, xT 1AbbasMaurice Wrusch: 72 passningar, xT 0.12Wrusch
    Jong AZ
    Mathijs Menu: 211 passningar, xT 0.33MenuJesper Zwart: 204 passningar, xT 0.42ZwartJulian Oerip: 204 passningar, xT 0.86OeripAndrea Natali: 151 passningar, xT 0.33NataliRio Robbemond: 140 passningar, xT 0.26RobbemondFrej Elkjær Andersen: 99 passningar, xT 0.12AndersenRion Ichihara: 93 passningar, xT 0.15IchiharaKiyani Zeggen: 92 passningar, xT 0.06ZeggenTycho de Wit: 70 passningar, xT 0.3WitIsmail Ka: 67 passningar, xT 0.08KaJulian Sijbrands: 66 passningar, xT 0.06Sijbrands
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 206 passningar, xT 0.48MiraniDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 175 passningar, xT 0.22KustDavid Vicente Robles: 168 passningar, xT 0.91RoblesSem Scheperman: 140 passningar, xT 0.11SchepermanFabian de Keijzer: 140 passningar, xT 0.57KeijzerMario Borac: 111 passningar, xT 0.14BoracMax Hauswirth: 107 passningar, xT 0.23HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 106 passningar, xT 0.72GilstManny Rodriguez Baldera: 100 passningar, xT 0.55BalderaChafik Abbas: 77 passningar, xT 1AbbasMaurice Wrusch: 72 passningar, xT 0.12Wrusch
    Jong AZ
    Mathijs Menu: 211 passningar, xT 0.33MenuJesper Zwart: 204 passningar, xT 0.42ZwartJulian Oerip: 204 passningar, xT 0.86OeripAndrea Natali: 151 passningar, xT 0.33NataliRio Robbemond: 140 passningar, xT 0.26RobbemondFrej Elkjær Andersen: 99 passningar, xT 0.12AndersenRion Ichihara: 93 passningar, xT 0.15IchiharaKiyani Zeggen: 92 passningar, xT 0.06ZeggenTycho de Wit: 70 passningar, xT 0.3WitIsmail Ka: 67 passningar, xT 0.08KaJulian Sijbrands: 66 passningar, xT 0.06Sijbrands

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHeracles AlmeloJong AZ
    Points159
    xPoints10.99.2
    xG per match2.71.6
    xGA per match0.921.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.16
    Playing styleHeracles AlmeloJong AZ
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.680.55
    xT per match1.61.1
    xTA per match0.870.88
    Won balls, offensive half3226
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.370.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.24
    Entries into the box per match1419
    Entries into the box against911
    Pass completion %0.720.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.72
    Passes per match314398
    Passes against per match275351
    Switches of play per match19.425.8
    Long balls per match3648
    Set piecesHeracles AlmeloJong AZ
    xG from free kicks00.03
    Corners per match7.54.9
    Corners against per match44
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.61
    OtherHeracles AlmeloJong AZ
    Throw-in control0.80.83
    The goalkeepersFabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)
    Saves1210
    Save %63%59%
    xG prevented39%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Heracles Almelo vs Jong AZ according to our model?

    The model gives Heracles Almelo a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heracles Almelo 54%, draw 22%, Jong AZ 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.