Eerste Divisie19°3,0 mm29 km/h

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    Heracles AlmeloHeracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses
    5–0
    De GraafschapDe GraafschapPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Heracles Almelo (51%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 7.80 (+49 %)

    Heracles Almelo – De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Heracles Almelo 51%X 24%25% De Graafschap · 2

    Analysis: Heracles Almelo – De Graafschap

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Fifty-one percent is the standout figure for Heracles Almelo, highlighting their probability of victory against De Graafschap. As the hosts ride a wave of four consecutive wins, they seem poised to continue their dominance against the visitors who are struggling with three straight losses. Both expected goals and xPoints metrics tilt in favor of Heracles, indicating a strong home performance. The visitors' reliance on possession contrasts with Heracles' counter-attacking style, but it's the latter that has yielded results this season.

    However, the betting market tells a different story. Despite De Graafschap's poor form, odds of 6.3 for their victory provide significant value with a calculated 59% edge on multiple platforms like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This suggests that while Heracles are favored, there's untapped potential in backing the away side if you're chasing high-risk value.

    The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, set against a backdrop of expected rain, which should dampen scoring chances slightly. Yet, the model suggests a slight edge towards over 2.5 goals at 58%, pairing well with a 61% chance of both teams finding the net. As the kickoff nears, adventurous bettors might find the real intrigue in the long odds offered on De Graafschap's upset win.

    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    Form WWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #5xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
    • Jean-Paul N'djoliLWxG 0.67 · xT 0.12
    • Tristan van GilstCAMxG 0.90 · xT 0.23
    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    Form LDLLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #11xP/match #14Points #20
    Key players
    • Denzel EijkenFxG 0.12 · xT 0.01
    • Joran HardemanCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
    • Julian KaniaFxG 0.46 · xT -0.02
    Final score
    5 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Heracles Almelo 51% · Draw 24% · De Graafschap 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - De GraafschapBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,29fair 9,85+4 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Heracles AlmeloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 2,81fair 6,93-59 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Heracles Almelo – De Graafschap

    Predicted score matrix

    De Graafschap →
    Heracles Almelo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–16.3%
    0–24.6%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–07.6%
    1–111.3%
    1–27.6%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–19.1%
    2–26.3%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–15.0%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–22.1%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,65–1,38
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @3.55EV+47%
    Over 2,558%
    @1.27

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Heracles Almelo to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.79

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Heracles Almelo to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Thomas Bruns to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Thomas Bruns to score22%
    • Stijn Bultman to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.519% probability@7.80BetsafeEV+49%reference odds
    • Under 1.519% probability@7.80BetssonEV+49%reference odds
    • Under 1.519% probability@7.80NordicbetEV+49%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Heracles AlmeloX2 · De Graafschap
    Betsafe1.45
    EV+ 10%
    4.55
    EV+ 48%
    5.90
    Betsson1.45
    EV+ 10%
    4.55
    EV+ 48%
    5.90
    Nordicbet1.45
    EV+ 10%
    4.55
    EV+ 48%
    5.90

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    66 %61 %

    1.42 → 1.45

    X0 %
    23 %18 %

    4.55 → 4.55

    2-6 %
    18 %13 %

    6.30 → 5.90

    Over 2,5-4 %
    74 %69 %

    1.32 → 1.27

    Betsson · 19 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Heracles Almelo come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • De Graafschap have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Heracles Almelo
    De Graafschap
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Heracles Almelo (16–7)
    De Graafschap (5–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 161 passningar, xT 0.35MiraniDavid Vicente Robles: 148 passningar, xT 0.74RoblesDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 145 passningar, xT 0.2KustSem Scheperman: 118 passningar, xT 0.07SchepermanMario Borac: 111 passningar, xT 0.14BoracFabian de Keijzer: 102 passningar, xT 0.51KeijzerMax Hauswirth: 92 passningar, xT 0.27HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 89 passningar, xT 0.62GilstManny Rodriguez Baldera: 68 passningar, xT 0.4BalderaChafik Abbas: 59 passningar, xT 0.58AbbasJean-Paul N'djoli: 53 passningar, xT 0.76N'djoli
    De Graafschap
    Gijs Bolk: 211 passningar, xT 0.53BolkDonny Warmerdam: 171 passningar, xT 0.2WarmerdamJoran Hardeman: 162 passningar, xT 0.35HardemanRowan Besselink: 152 passningar, xT 0.17BesselinkTies Wieggers: 144 passningar, xT 0.15WieggersKaya Symons: 142 passningar, xT 0.59SymonsJason Meerstadt: 113 passningar, xT 0.68MeerstadtNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 87 passningar, xT 0.29Ahmeti-GraincaToivo Mero: 73 passningar, xT 0.39MeroClint Leemans: 70 passningar, xT 0.47LeemansThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 60 passningar, xT 0.07Kok
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 161 passningar, xT 0.35MiraniDavid Vicente Robles: 148 passningar, xT 0.74RoblesDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 145 passningar, xT 0.2KustSem Scheperman: 118 passningar, xT 0.07SchepermanMario Borac: 111 passningar, xT 0.14BoracFabian de Keijzer: 102 passningar, xT 0.51KeijzerMax Hauswirth: 92 passningar, xT 0.27HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 89 passningar, xT 0.62GilstManny Rodriguez Baldera: 68 passningar, xT 0.4BalderaChafik Abbas: 59 passningar, xT 0.58AbbasJean-Paul N'djoli: 53 passningar, xT 0.76N'djoli
    De Graafschap
    Gijs Bolk: 211 passningar, xT 0.53BolkDonny Warmerdam: 171 passningar, xT 0.2WarmerdamJoran Hardeman: 162 passningar, xT 0.35HardemanRowan Besselink: 152 passningar, xT 0.17BesselinkTies Wieggers: 144 passningar, xT 0.15WieggersKaya Symons: 142 passningar, xT 0.59SymonsJason Meerstadt: 113 passningar, xT 0.68MeerstadtNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 87 passningar, xT 0.29Ahmeti-GraincaToivo Mero: 73 passningar, xT 0.39MeroClint Leemans: 70 passningar, xT 0.47LeemansThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 60 passningar, xT 0.07Kok

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHeracles AlmeloDe Graafschap
    Points121
    xPoints8.34.5
    xG per match2.71.3
    xGA per match11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.420.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.09
    Playing styleHeracles AlmeloDe Graafschap
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.680.59
    xT per match1.61.2
    xTA per match11.2
    Won balls, offensive half3326
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.380.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.34
    Entries into the box per match1416
    Entries into the box against1014
    Pass completion %0.710.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.71
    Passes per match319396
    Passes against per match244278
    Switches of play per match21.543.2
    Long balls per match3849
    Set piecesHeracles AlmeloDe Graafschap
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match8.25.5
    Corners against per match4.74.7
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.73
    First touch, defensive corners %0.470.74
    OtherHeracles AlmeloDe Graafschap
    Throw-in control0.840.79
    The goalkeepersFabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap)
    Saves913
    Save %56%52%
    xG prevented34%34%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Heracles Almelo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    De Graafschap
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Heracles Almelo vs De Graafschap according to our model?

    The model gives Heracles Almelo a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heracles Almelo 51%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.