Eerste Divisie16°0,2 mm15 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    MVV MaastrichtMVV MaastrichtPossession control
    vs
    Jong Almere CityJong Almere CityLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · MVV Maastricht (41%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 6.40 (+49 %)
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    MVV Maastricht – Jong Almere City · Eerste Divisie

    1 · MVV Maastricht 41%X 23%35% Jong Almere City · 2

    Analysis: MVV Maastricht – Jong Almere City

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    MVV Maastricht's recent form is a cornerstone in their approach against Jong Almere City. Unbeaten in their last five league outings, the hosts have showcased a defensive solidity that could frustrate their visitors, who favor a low defensive block and direct play. Maastricht's possession control might prove pivotal in dictating the pace, particularly given Jong Almere's higher expected goals conceded per match (1.6).

    The probabilities favor Maastricht slightly, with a 41% chance of victory compared to Jong Almere's 35%. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, underscore a tight contest, suggesting goals may not come easily. However, with both teams expected to score at a 56% probability and the over 2.5 goals priced at 52%, the models anticipate at least some offensive action.

    Despite the expectation of goals, the real intrigue lies in the value on offer for a low-scoring affair. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all provide a juicy 5.9 odds for under 1.5 goals, contrasting starkly with the model's 23% likelihood — a 38% edge in value. For those who see a goalless stalemate or a solitary goal deciding the outcome, these odds present a tempting avenue.

    The expected goals metric further complicates the narrative. While Maastricht's defensive prowess is evident with an xGA of just 0.98, Almere's offensive edge is notable with their 1.6 xG. This suggests a duel where defense meets attack, with Maastricht's stability countering Almere's forward thrusts.

    Ultimately, the razor-thin margins in this matchup point towards a cautiously optimistic 1-0 home win for Maastricht. Yet, the standout betting angle remains the under 1.5 goals, particularly at those advantageous odds, for those willing to embrace a low-scoring spectacle.

    MVV MaastrichtMVV Maastricht
    Form WWWWD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #2xT #16xP/match #5Points #2
    Key players
    • Olivier DumontRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.11
    • Toni VinogradacFxG 0.26 · xT 0.04
    • Sil van der WegenRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
    Jong Almere CityJong Almere City
    Form WWWL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #8xP/match #10Points #6
    Key players
    • Emanuel PokuFxG 0.17 · xT 0.20
    • Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.70 · xT 0.16
    • Byron BurgeringRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.20

    Match prediction: MVV Maastricht – Jong Almere City

    Predicted score matrix

    Jong Almere City →
    MVV Maastricht →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–17.9%
    0–25.5%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–08.8%
    1–112.4%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.7%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.2%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,45–1,32
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.85EV+36%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.39

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance MVV Maastricht or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.97

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance MVV Maastricht or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Noa El Hamdaoui to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Noa El Hamdaoui to score23%
    • Mees Hoedemakers to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.523% probability@6.40BetsafeEV+49%reference odds
    • Under 1.523% probability@6.40BetssonEV+49%reference odds
    • Under 1.523% probability@6.40NordicbetEV+49%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · MVV MaastrichtX2 · Jong Almere City
    Betsafe
    EV+ 16%
    2.80    		3.602.22
    Betsson
    EV+ 16%
    2.80    		3.602.22
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 16%
    2.80    		3.602.22

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 11:39

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a MVV Maastricht win since 9 September — the odds have shortened from 3.05 to 2.80 (−8%).

    1-8 %
    34 %29 %

    3.05 → 2.80

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.60 → 3.60

    2+8 %
    46 %41 %

    2.05 → 2.22

    Over 2,5-3 %
    69 %64 %

    1.44 → 1.39

    Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • MVV Maastricht are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    MVV Maastricht
    Jong Almere City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    MVV Maastricht (9–5)
    Jong Almere City (10–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    MVV Maastricht
    Finn Jesper Dicke: 236 passningar, xT 0.68DickeSil van der Wegen: 230 passningar, xT 0.55WegenMilan Hofland: 181 passningar, xT 0.42HoflandDelano Asante: 152 passningar, xT 0.66AsanteOlivier Dumont: 128 passningar, xT 0.21DumontLennerd Daneels: 125 passningar, xT 0.99DaneelsSven Bouland: 125 passningar, xT 0.1BoulandHugo Wentges: 125 passningar, xT 0.36WentgesElias Sierra-Cappelletti: 124 passningar, xT -0.05Sierra-CappellettiStan Van Dessel: 114 passningar, xT 0.27DesselRobert Klaasen: 78 passningar, xT 0.17Klaasen
    Jong Almere City
    Teun Bijleveld: 107 passningar, xT 0.24BijleveldWessel Speel: 104 passningar, xT 0.19SpeelJoey Jacobs: 101 passningar, xT 0.19JacobsJames Lawrence: 101 passningar, xT 0.14LawrenceEnzo Cornelisse: 77 passningar, xT 1.01CornelisseEmmanuel van de Blaak: 73 passningar, xT 0.07BlaakMees Hoedemakers: 68 passningar, xT 0.17HoedemakersHamza El Dahri: 54 passningar, xT 0.24DahriDamian van Bruggen: 53 passningar, xT 0BruggenMarley Dors: 50 passningar, xT 0.6DorsFerdy Druijf: 40 passningar, xT 0.16Druijf
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    MVV Maastricht
    Finn Jesper Dicke: 236 passningar, xT 0.68DickeSil van der Wegen: 230 passningar, xT 0.55WegenMilan Hofland: 181 passningar, xT 0.42HoflandDelano Asante: 152 passningar, xT 0.66AsanteOlivier Dumont: 128 passningar, xT 0.21DumontLennerd Daneels: 125 passningar, xT 0.99DaneelsSven Bouland: 125 passningar, xT 0.1BoulandHugo Wentges: 125 passningar, xT 0.36WentgesElias Sierra-Cappelletti: 124 passningar, xT -0.05Sierra-CappellettiStan Van Dessel: 114 passningar, xT 0.27DesselRobert Klaasen: 78 passningar, xT 0.17Klaasen
    Jong Almere City
    Teun Bijleveld: 107 passningar, xT 0.24BijleveldWessel Speel: 104 passningar, xT 0.19SpeelJoey Jacobs: 101 passningar, xT 0.19JacobsJames Lawrence: 101 passningar, xT 0.14LawrenceEnzo Cornelisse: 77 passningar, xT 1.01CornelisseEmmanuel van de Blaak: 73 passningar, xT 0.07BlaakMees Hoedemakers: 68 passningar, xT 0.17HoedemakersHamza El Dahri: 54 passningar, xT 0.24DahriDamian van Bruggen: 53 passningar, xT 0BruggenMarley Dors: 50 passningar, xT 0.6DorsFerdy Druijf: 40 passningar, xT 0.16Druijf

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMVV MaastrichtJong Almere City
    Points139
    xPoints8.15.7
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match0.981.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.060.16
    Playing styleMVV MaastrichtJong Almere City
    Build-up efficiency0.30.29
    Field tilt0.550.36
    xT per match11.4
    xTA per match0.871.1
    Won balls, offensive half2524
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.340.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.2
    Entries into the box per match913
    Entries into the box against1414
    Pass completion %0.740.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.63
    Passes per match345249
    Passes against per match350395
    Switches of play per match28.821.2
    Long balls per match4138
    Set piecesMVV MaastrichtJong Almere City
    xG from free kicks0.030.06
    Corners per match3.45.2
    Corners against per match4.86.7
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.060.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.380.44
    OtherMVV MaastrichtJong Almere City
    Throw-in control0.690.72
    The goalkeepersHugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht)Wessel Speel (Jong Almere City)
    Saves918
    Save %69%86%
    xG prevented58%76%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    MVV Maastricht
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jong Almere City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins MVV Maastricht vs Jong Almere City according to our model?

    The model gives MVV Maastricht a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: MVV Maastricht 41%, draw 23%, Jong Almere City 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    1–2
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    1 25%X 26%2 49%
    The model called the outcome
    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
    3–4
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    1 40%X 28%2 32%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.