Eerste Divisie16°2,1 mm16 km/h

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    NAC BredaNAC BredaPossession & high press
    vs
    Jong UtrechtJong UtrechtPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · NAC Breda (75%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.82 (+9 %)

    NAC Breda – Jong Utrecht · Eerste Divisie

    1 · NAC Breda 75%X 15%10% Jong Utrecht · 2

    Analysis: NAC Breda – Jong Utrecht

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    NAC Breda enters their clash against Jong Utrecht with a commanding 75% probability of victory, as per the model's lean. The hosts boast a significant advantage in expected goals, clocking in at 2.36 compared to the visitors' 0.87. This gap underscores Breda's superior attacking capabilities and suggests a likely outcome in their favor.

    Despite both teams favoring a possession style, Breda's combination of high press and control seems more effective, reflected in their 7 points against Utrecht's single point. Notably, Breda's defensive stats are superior, conceding 1.6 xGA per match compared to Utrecht's 2.0. However, Utrecht's xPoints are surprisingly close, indicating a potential for resilience in their play. The most probable scoreline according to the data is 2-0, but a 2-1 is also plausible, with a 63% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score.

    For those eyeing value, the under 3.5 goals market offers a noteworthy edge. Available at 1.82 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model rates this outcome at 60%, providing a 9% advantage. This aligns with a controlled performance by the home side, suggesting a tactical victory without a goal glut.

    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    Form WLWDL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #11xT #7xP/match #15Points #10
    Key players
    • Paul GladonFxG 0.75 · xT 0.08
    • Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.11
    • Cherrion ValeriusRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #18xP/match #21Points #20
    Key players
    • Noa DundasFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
    • Bjorn MenzoRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.19
    • Wessel KooyCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.00

    Match prediction: NAC Breda – Jong Utrecht

    Predicted score matrix

    Jong Utrecht →
    NAC Breda →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.2%
    0–13.2%
    0–21.5%
    0–30.4%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–18.4%
    1–23.5%
    1–31.0%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–011.0%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–08.7%
    3–17.5%
    3–23.3%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–08.9%
    4+–17.7%
    4+–23.4%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.3-09%
    5. 5.1-18%
    Expected goals
    2,36–0,87
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,537%
    –
    Over 2,563%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • NAC Breda to win75%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    61%

    Fair odds

    1.64

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • NAC Breda to win75%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Paul Gladon to score44%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Paul Gladon to score44%
    • Wessel Kooy to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 3.560% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • Under 3.560% probability@1.82BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    • Under 3.560% probability@1.82NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · NAC BredaX2 · Jong Utrecht
    Betsafe1.284.558.30
    Betsson1.284.558.30
    Nordicbet1.284.558.30

    Odds updated 10 Sept, 18:36

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    73 %68 %

    1.26 → 1.28

    X0 %
    22 %17 %

    4.55 → 4.55

    2-6 %
    13 %8 %

    8.80 → 8.30

    Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    NAC Breda
    Jong Utrecht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    NAC Breda (9–11)
    Jong Utrecht (5–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 322 passningar, xT 0.6BerghMohamed Nassoh: 283 passningar, xT 1.21NassohLeo Greiml: 276 passningar, xT 0.67GreimlFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 256 passningar, xT 1.24JensenRio Hillen: 167 passningar, xT -0.06HillenMichael Robin Verrips: 136 passningar, xT 0.37VerripsCherrion Valerius: 130 passningar, xT 0.19ValeriusJannes Van Hecke: 116 passningar, xT 0.38HeckeMax Balard: 115 passningar, xT 0.28BalardBoyd Lucassen: 53 passningar, xT 0.06LucassenCharles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym: 49 passningar, xT 0.05Brym
    Jong Utrecht
    Jamie Schuldes: 210 passningar, xT 0.42SchuldesViggo Plantinga: 170 passningar, xT 0.44PlantingaPer Kloosterboer: 165 passningar, xT 0.24KloosterboerDriss Laaouina: 159 passningar, xT 0.58LaaouinaWessel Kooy: 124 passningar, xT 0.23KooyBjorn Menzo: 122 passningar, xT 0.92MenzoMees Eppink: 101 passningar, xT 0.2EppinkYousri Sbai: 99 passningar, xT 0.33SbaiMassien Ghaddari: 92 passningar, xT 0.31GhaddariFerdinand Pohl: 52 passningar, xT 0.09PohlKevin Gadellaa: 44 passningar, xT 0.1Gadellaa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 322 passningar, xT 0.6BerghMohamed Nassoh: 283 passningar, xT 1.21NassohLeo Greiml: 276 passningar, xT 0.67GreimlFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 256 passningar, xT 1.24JensenRio Hillen: 167 passningar, xT -0.06HillenMichael Robin Verrips: 136 passningar, xT 0.37VerripsCherrion Valerius: 130 passningar, xT 0.19ValeriusJannes Van Hecke: 116 passningar, xT 0.38HeckeMax Balard: 115 passningar, xT 0.28BalardBoyd Lucassen: 53 passningar, xT 0.06LucassenCharles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym: 49 passningar, xT 0.05Brym
    Jong Utrecht
    Jamie Schuldes: 210 passningar, xT 0.42SchuldesViggo Plantinga: 170 passningar, xT 0.44PlantingaPer Kloosterboer: 165 passningar, xT 0.24KloosterboerDriss Laaouina: 159 passningar, xT 0.58LaaouinaWessel Kooy: 124 passningar, xT 0.23KooyBjorn Menzo: 122 passningar, xT 0.92MenzoMees Eppink: 101 passningar, xT 0.2EppinkYousri Sbai: 99 passningar, xT 0.33SbaiMassien Ghaddari: 92 passningar, xT 0.31GhaddariFerdinand Pohl: 52 passningar, xT 0.09PohlKevin Gadellaa: 44 passningar, xT 0.1Gadellaa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNAC BredaJong Utrecht
    Points71
    xPoints5.85.6
    xG per match1.71
    xGA per match1.62
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.240.41
    Playing styleNAC BredaJong Utrecht
    Build-up efficiency0.30.28
    Field tilt0.670.36
    xT per match1.40.95
    xTA per match1.41.4
    Won balls, offensive half3125
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.320.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.26
    Entries into the box per match1611
    Entries into the box against1218
    Pass completion %0.780.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.66
    Passes per match425298
    Passes against per match281370
    Switches of play per match30.424.4
    Long balls per match4232
    Set piecesNAC BredaJong Utrecht
    xG from free kicks0.130.02
    Corners per match6.54.9
    Corners against per match34.9
    xG per corner0.050.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.64
    OtherNAC BredaJong Utrecht
    Throw-in control0.820.76
    The goalkeepersMichael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda)Mees Eppink (Jong Utrecht)
    Saves1614
    Save %62%58%
    xG prevented46%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht according to our model?

    The model gives NAC Breda a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NAC Breda 75%, draw 15%, Jong Utrecht 10%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.