Eerste Divisie19°1,6 mm15 km/h

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    Jong PSVJong PSVPossession & high press
    vs
    Jong AZJong AZPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Jong PSV (45%)

    Jong PSV – Jong AZ · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Jong PSV 45%X 24%31% Jong AZ · 2

    Analysis: Jong PSV – Jong AZ

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The numbers tilt in favor of Jong PSV, carrying a 45% model probability for victory against Jong AZ's 31%. With the hosts slightly ahead in points and expected points, the data reinforces their edge, albeit a modest one. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, each at 9%, signal a close contest where Jong PSV could marginally prevail. Despite the small head-to-head sample of four games, PSV's clean record—three wins and a draw—adds psychological weight that suggests they maintain the upper hand.

    Expected goals of 1.93 for the hosts to 1.59 for the visitors hint at an open game, boosted by both sides' tendency towards possession-heavy strategies. The high probabilities for over 2.5 goals (68%) and both teams to score (68%) reflect this dynamic. However, the visitors' marginal defensive edge, with slightly better xGA figures, might play a role in containing the hosts' high press and possession style.

    Jong AZ's approach to possession control could see them absorb pressure effectively, turning the match into a tactical battle. Yet, the hosts' aggressive high press could exploit any defensive lapses, tipping the scales in their favor. The expectation for a close encounter doesn't negate the likelihood of goal-scoring opportunities on both ends.

    While the model leans towards a victory for the hosts, the draw remains a tantalizing possibility at 24%. Yet, the slight preference for a 2-1 scoreline underscores the belief in PSV's attacking potency to edge past their defensive frailties. As for the total goals market, the inclination towards over 2.5 goals aligns with the anticipated flow of the game.

    Overall, the data paints Jong PSV as the likely, if not overwhelming, favorite in this contest.

    Jong PSVJong PSV
    Form LWDDW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #13xP/match #3Points #4
    Key players
    • Austyn Monet JonesFxG 0.71 · xT -0.01
    • Jordy BawuahCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
    • Madi MonamayCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    Jong AZJong AZ
    Form WLLWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #12xP/match #8Points #8
    Key players
    • Ayoub OufkirFxG 0.52 · xT 0.24
    • Julian OeripCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
    • Jesper ZwartRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Jong PSV – Jong AZ

    Predicted score matrix

    Jong AZ →
    Jong PSV →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.2%
    0–14.5%
    0–23.8%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–05.4%
    1–19.4%
    1–27.2%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+2.2%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–18.8%
    2–27.0%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–03.5%
    3–15.6%
    3–24.5%
    3–32.4%
    3–4+1.4%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–14.2%
    4+–23.3%
    4+–31.8%
    4+–4+1.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-19%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,93–1,59
    Both teams to score
    68%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    –
    Over 2,568%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Jong PSV to win45%
    • Over 1.5 goals87%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.51

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Jong PSV to win45%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Jim Koller to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score68%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Jim Koller to score27%
    • Julian Sijbrands to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Jong PSV 3Draw 1Jong AZ 0
    Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jong PSV
    Jong AZ
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jong PSV (11–9)
    Jong AZ (15–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jong PSV
    Fabian Merién: 259 passningar, xT 0.13MeriénMadi Monamay: 208 passningar, xT 0.2MonamayKhadim Ngom: 167 passningar, xT 0.13NgomGino Verhulst: 159 passningar, xT 0.35VerhulstEssien Bassey: 142 passningar, xT 0.51BasseyMichael Bresser: 135 passningar, xT 0.3BresserShuryjano Cornecion: 100 passningar, xT 0.59CornecionFabio Kluit: 98 passningar, xT 0.32KluitJordy Bawuah: 74 passningar, xT 0.06BawuahJoël van den Berg: 74 passningar, xT 0BergSouleymane Lamine Sidibe: 72 passningar, xT 0.03Sidibe
    Jong AZ
    Mathijs Menu: 211 passningar, xT 0.33MenuJesper Zwart: 204 passningar, xT 0.42ZwartJulian Oerip: 204 passningar, xT 0.86OeripAndrea Natali: 151 passningar, xT 0.33NataliRio Robbemond: 140 passningar, xT 0.26RobbemondFrej Elkjær Andersen: 99 passningar, xT 0.12AndersenRion Ichihara: 93 passningar, xT 0.15IchiharaKiyani Zeggen: 92 passningar, xT 0.06ZeggenTycho de Wit: 70 passningar, xT 0.3WitIsmail Ka: 67 passningar, xT 0.08KaJulian Sijbrands: 66 passningar, xT 0.06Sijbrands
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jong PSV
    Fabian Merién: 259 passningar, xT 0.13MeriénMadi Monamay: 208 passningar, xT 0.2MonamayKhadim Ngom: 167 passningar, xT 0.13NgomGino Verhulst: 159 passningar, xT 0.35VerhulstEssien Bassey: 142 passningar, xT 0.51BasseyMichael Bresser: 135 passningar, xT 0.3BresserShuryjano Cornecion: 100 passningar, xT 0.59CornecionFabio Kluit: 98 passningar, xT 0.32KluitJordy Bawuah: 74 passningar, xT 0.06BawuahJoël van den Berg: 74 passningar, xT 0BergSouleymane Lamine Sidibe: 72 passningar, xT 0.03Sidibe
    Jong AZ
    Mathijs Menu: 211 passningar, xT 0.33MenuJesper Zwart: 204 passningar, xT 0.42ZwartJulian Oerip: 204 passningar, xT 0.86OeripAndrea Natali: 151 passningar, xT 0.33NataliRio Robbemond: 140 passningar, xT 0.26RobbemondFrej Elkjær Andersen: 99 passningar, xT 0.12AndersenRion Ichihara: 93 passningar, xT 0.15IchiharaKiyani Zeggen: 92 passningar, xT 0.06ZeggenTycho de Wit: 70 passningar, xT 0.3WitIsmail Ka: 67 passningar, xT 0.08KaJulian Sijbrands: 66 passningar, xT 0.06Sijbrands

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJong PSVJong AZ
    Points119
    xPoints10.29.2
    xG per match1.71.6
    xGA per match1.21.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.16
    Playing styleJong PSVJong AZ
    Build-up efficiency0.290.32
    Field tilt0.60.55
    xT per match1.11.1
    xTA per match1.10.88
    Won balls, offensive half2626
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.380.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.24
    Entries into the box per match1319
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.770.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.72
    Passes per match396398
    Passes against per match280351
    Switches of play per match26.525.8
    Long balls per match4048
    Set piecesJong PSVJong AZ
    xG from free kicks0.020.03
    Corners per match5.74.9
    Corners against per match4.54
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.61
    OtherJong PSVJong AZ
    Throw-in control0.770.83
    The goalkeepersKhadim Ngom (Jong PSV)Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)
    Saves1610
    Save %73%59%
    xG prevented76%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jong PSV
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jong AZ
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jong PSV vs Jong AZ according to our model?

    The model gives Jong PSV a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong PSV 45%, draw 24%, Jong AZ 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.