Eerste Divisie23°18 km/h

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    Jong PSVJong PSVPossession & high press
    vs
    Den BoschDen BoschPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Jong PSV (47%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.55 (+21 %)

    Jong PSV – Den Bosch · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Jong PSV 47%X 21%32% Den Bosch · 2

    Analysis: Jong PSV – Den Bosch

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Jong PSV seem to hold a slight mathematical edge in their showdown with Den Bosch, boasting a 47% chance of victory. Despite this, there's an intriguing tension: Den Bosch have found the net in 16 consecutive league matches. The hosts are expected to dominate possession and apply a high press, which mirrors the style of their opponents. It’s a setup that suggests an intense midfield battle, potentially opening up spaces at the back.

    The model's forecast leans towards a tight contest with the most probable scorelines being 1-1 and 2-1. This is further supported by the expected goals tally, where PSV U21 are predicted to score 1.94 compared to Den Bosch's 1.46. Yet, the visitors show resilience in front of goal, evidenced by their higher xG per match at 2.2, compared to PSV U21’s 1.8, indicating that Den Bosch might exploit any defensive lapses.

    From the historical head-to-head, limited to just four games, the visitors have the upper hand with two wins. However, this small sample size diminishes its weight against the current season's form and xG data. Jong PSV have demonstrated a more robust defense with an xGA of 1.1, which could prove crucial in stifling Den Bosch's attacking threats.

    Notably, despite the potential for goals, there remains a hidden gem in the under 2.5 goals market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet are all offering odds of 3.45, providing a notable 17% edge according to the model's assessment. While the numbers suggest a goal-rich game, the value lies in betting on fewer goals, challenging the narrative that both teams will inevitably score freely.

    Ultimately, while Jong PSV appear marginally better placed to edge this encounter with a probable 2-1 scoreline, the real opportunity for bettors may rest in defying expectations and backing a low-scoring affair.

    Jong PSVJong PSV
    Form WLWDD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #13xP/match #4Points #8
    Key players
    • Austyn Monet JonesFxG 0.89 · xT -0.01
    • Jordy BawuahCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
    • Madi MonamayCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form LDLWL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #13xT #5xP/match #5Points #15
    Key players
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.61 · xT -0.01
    • Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.44 · xT 0.28
    • Ilias BoumassaoudiLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: Jong PSV – Den Bosch

    Predicted score matrix

    Den Bosch →
    Jong PSV →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.6%
    0–14.6%
    0–23.5%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–06.2%
    1–19.7%
    1–26.9%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–06.3%
    2–19.2%
    2–26.7%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–15.9%
    3–24.3%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–03.1%
    4+–14.5%
    4+–23.3%
    4+–31.6%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.2-06%
    Expected goals
    1,94–1,46
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    @3.55EV+21%
    Over 2,566%
    @1.27

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Jong PSV to win47%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    42%

    Fair odds

    2.37

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Jong PSV to win47%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Fabio Kluit to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Thijs van Leeuwen to score27%
    • Kevin Antonio Felida to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.534% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
    • Under 2.534% probability@3.55BetssonEV+21%reference odds
    • Under 2.534% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jong PSVX2 · Den Bosch
    Betsafe1.983.85
    EV+ 2%
    3.20
    Betsson1.983.85
    EV+ 2%
    3.20
    Nordicbet1.983.85
    EV+ 2%
    3.20

    Odds updated 7 Sept, 10:35

    Odds movement

    10 %
    49 %44 %

    1.98 → 1.98

    X0 %
    27 %22 %

    3.85 → 3.85

    2+2 %
    32 %27 %

    3.15 → 3.20

    Over 2,5-4 %
    75 %70 %

    1.32 → 1.27

    Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Jong PSV 1Draw 1Den Bosch 2
    Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Den Bosch have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jong PSV
    Den Bosch
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jong PSV (8–8)
    Den Bosch (9–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jong PSV
    Fabian Merién: 256 passningar, xT 0.2MeriénMadi Monamay: 208 passningar, xT 0.2MonamayEssien Bassey: 189 passningar, xT 0.65BasseyGino Verhulst: 173 passningar, xT 0.47VerhulstKhadim Ngom: 129 passningar, xT 0.06NgomJordy Bawuah: 126 passningar, xT 0.12BawuahJoël van den Berg: 106 passningar, xT 0.03BergFabio Kluit: 102 passningar, xT 0.16KluitMichael Bresser: 99 passningar, xT 0.38BresserShuryjano Cornecion: 85 passningar, xT 0.42CornecionSouleymane Lamine Sidibe: 77 passningar, xT -0.01Sidibe
    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 146 passningar, xT 0.99FortesHessel Eikelboom: 141 passningar, xT 0.32EikelboomMees Laros: 125 passningar, xT 0.77LarosJasper van Heertum: 112 passningar, xT 0.17HeertumStan Maas: 111 passningar, xT 0.19MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 96 passningar, xT 0.26MerbelDevon Findell De Corte: 85 passningar, xT 0.77CorteKevin Felida: 84 passningar, xT 0.34FelidaKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 82 passningar, xT 0.95BokoloIlias Boumassaoudi: 45 passningar, xT 0.62BoumassaoudiSebastian Karlsson Grach: 42 passningar, xT -0.11Grach
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jong PSV
    Fabian Merién: 256 passningar, xT 0.2MeriénMadi Monamay: 208 passningar, xT 0.2MonamayEssien Bassey: 189 passningar, xT 0.65BasseyGino Verhulst: 173 passningar, xT 0.47VerhulstKhadim Ngom: 129 passningar, xT 0.06NgomJordy Bawuah: 126 passningar, xT 0.12BawuahJoël van den Berg: 106 passningar, xT 0.03BergFabio Kluit: 102 passningar, xT 0.16KluitMichael Bresser: 99 passningar, xT 0.38BresserShuryjano Cornecion: 85 passningar, xT 0.42CornecionSouleymane Lamine Sidibe: 77 passningar, xT -0.01Sidibe
    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 146 passningar, xT 0.99FortesHessel Eikelboom: 141 passningar, xT 0.32EikelboomMees Laros: 125 passningar, xT 0.77LarosJasper van Heertum: 112 passningar, xT 0.17HeertumStan Maas: 111 passningar, xT 0.19MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 96 passningar, xT 0.26MerbelDevon Findell De Corte: 85 passningar, xT 0.77CorteKevin Felida: 84 passningar, xT 0.34FelidaKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 82 passningar, xT 0.95BokoloIlias Boumassaoudi: 45 passningar, xT 0.62BoumassaoudiSebastian Karlsson Grach: 42 passningar, xT -0.11Grach

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJong PSVDen Bosch
    Points84
    xPoints8.66.6
    xG per match1.82.2
    xGA per match1.11.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.46
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.24
    Playing styleJong PSVDen Bosch
    Build-up efficiency0.290.32
    Field tilt0.620.52
    xT per match1.11.6
    xTA per match0.961.4
    Won balls, offensive half2826
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.380.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.360.33
    Entries into the box per match1216
    Entries into the box against1216
    Pass completion %0.770.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.65
    Passes per match414290
    Passes against per match287273
    Switches of play per match27.119.4
    Long balls per match4136
    Set piecesJong PSVDen Bosch
    xG from free kicks0.010.08
    Corners per match5.88.7
    Corners against per match3.44.2
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.050.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.59
    OtherJong PSVDen Bosch
    Throw-in control0.760.76
    The goalkeepersKhadim Ngom (Jong PSV)Pepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)
    Saves1120
    Save %69%69%
    xG prevented76%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jong PSV vs Den Bosch according to our model?

    The model gives Jong PSV a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong PSV 47%, draw 21%, Den Bosch 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.