Eerste Divisie20°1,2 mm34 km/h

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    WaalwijkWaalwijkCounter-attacks & crosses
    4–2
    NAC BredaNAC BredaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Waalwijk (41%)

    Waalwijk – NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Waalwijk 41%X 25%33% NAC Breda · 2

    Analysis: Waalwijk – NAC Breda

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Unbeaten in their last five league matches, Waalwijk comes into this clash with a solid record. Yet, with only four points to their name this season, they find themselves trailing NAC Breda, who have picked up seven. The xPoints tell a similar story—Breda edges it with 5.2 against Waalwijk’s 4.2. While Breda enjoys holding possession and applying a high press, Waalwijk thrives on counter-attacks and crosses. This contrast in playing styles could define the outcome.

    Despite their unbeaten run, Waalwijk's form doesn't paint the full picture. They have scored in 26 consecutive league matches, a testament to their attacking prowess. However, their xG per match at 1.1 trails behind Breda’s 2.0. Breda’s higher expected goals highlight their offensive efficiency, but Waalwijk has the defensive edge, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.2) compared to Breda’s 1.4.

    The model gives a subtle nod to the hosts, assigning them a 41% chance of winning, compared to Breda’s 33%. With expected goals leaning towards an open game, the over 2.5 goals market at 59% is tempting. The most likely scorelines include a 1-1 draw at 11% and a narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts at 9%. The expected rain might suppress goal-scoring opportunities, but it's already considered in the xG numbers.

    Sharp bettors will notice value in the market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer Waalwijk at odds of 2.75, translating to a 41% win probability—an enticing 14% edge according to the model. While not a guarantee, this represents value if you believe the hosts can capitalize on their recent form and Breda’s defensive vulnerabilities.

    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    Form WDDDD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #10xP/match #18Points #12
    Key players
    • Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.27
    • Faissal Al MazyaniRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
    • Liam van GelderenCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    Form DWLWD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #2xP/match #11Points #9
    Key players
    • Moussa SoumanoFxG 0.75 · xT 0.04
    • Paul GladonFxG 0.90 · xT 0.10
    • Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
    Final score
    4 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Waalwijk 41% · Draw 25% · NAC Breda 33%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - RKC WaalwijkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,41fair 7,28-12 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - NAC BredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,09fair 9,15-44 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Waalwijk – NAC Breda

    Predicted score matrix

    NAC Breda →
    Waalwijk →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–16.5%
    0–24.9%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–07.4%
    1–111.3%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.2%
    2–18.8%
    2–26.3%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–14.7%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,61–1,43
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,541%
    @2.52EV+4%
    Over 2,559%
    @1.49

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Waalwijk or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Waalwijk or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Jesper Uneken to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Jesper Uneken to score28%
    • Maximilien Balard to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Waalwijk41% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
    • 1 · Waalwijk41% probability@2.85BetssonEV+18%reference odds
    • 1 · Waalwijk41% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · WaalwijkX2 · NAC Breda
    Betsafe
    EV+ 18%
    2.85    		3.602.22
    Betsson
    EV+ 18%
    2.85    		3.602.22
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 18%
    2.85    		3.602.22

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    35 %30 %

    2.90 → 2.85

    X+4 %
    29 %24 %

    3.45 → 3.60

    20 %
    43 %38 %

    2.22 → 2.22

    Over 2,5-2 %
    66 %61 %

    1.52 → 1.49

    Betsson · 19 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • RKC Waalwijk are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    • RKC Waalwijk have scored in 26 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Waalwijk
    NAC Breda
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Waalwijk (6–6)
    NAC Breda (7–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Waalwijk
    Liam van Gelderen: 214 passningar, xT 0.3GelderenJuan Carlos Familia-Castillo: 193 passningar, xT 0.98Familia-CastilloJordy de Wijs: 190 passningar, xT 0.2WijsFaissal Al Mazyani: 161 passningar, xT 0.32MazyaniJochem Nap: 129 passningar, xT 0.32NapNiek Schiks: 123 passningar, xT 0.22SchiksLoek Postma: 78 passningar, xT 0.13PostmaThijs van Leeuwen: 72 passningar, xT 0.2LeeuwenRyan Fage: 67 passningar, xT 0.26FageNazjir Held: 46 passningar, xT 0.7HeldYoram van der Veen: 44 passningar, xT 0.33Veen
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 260 passningar, xT 0.52BerghLeo Greiml: 253 passningar, xT 0.63GreimlMohamed Nassoh: 243 passningar, xT 1.17NassohFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 209 passningar, xT 1.2JensenRio Hillen: 149 passningar, xT -0.04HillenCherrion Valerius: 130 passningar, xT 0.19ValeriusMichael Robin Verrips: 111 passningar, xT 0.31VerripsMax Balard: 105 passningar, xT 0.2BalardJannes Van Hecke: 88 passningar, xT 0.23HeckeCharles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym: 49 passningar, xT 0.05BrymBoyd Lucassen: 43 passningar, xT 0.05Lucassen
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Waalwijk
    Liam van Gelderen: 214 passningar, xT 0.3GelderenJuan Carlos Familia-Castillo: 193 passningar, xT 0.98Familia-CastilloJordy de Wijs: 190 passningar, xT 0.2WijsFaissal Al Mazyani: 161 passningar, xT 0.32MazyaniJochem Nap: 129 passningar, xT 0.32NapNiek Schiks: 123 passningar, xT 0.22SchiksLoek Postma: 78 passningar, xT 0.13PostmaThijs van Leeuwen: 72 passningar, xT 0.2LeeuwenRyan Fage: 67 passningar, xT 0.26FageNazjir Held: 46 passningar, xT 0.7HeldYoram van der Veen: 44 passningar, xT 0.33Veen
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 260 passningar, xT 0.52BerghLeo Greiml: 253 passningar, xT 0.63GreimlMohamed Nassoh: 243 passningar, xT 1.17NassohFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 209 passningar, xT 1.2JensenRio Hillen: 149 passningar, xT -0.04HillenCherrion Valerius: 130 passningar, xT 0.19ValeriusMichael Robin Verrips: 111 passningar, xT 0.31VerripsMax Balard: 105 passningar, xT 0.2BalardJannes Van Hecke: 88 passningar, xT 0.23HeckeCharles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym: 49 passningar, xT 0.05BrymBoyd Lucassen: 43 passningar, xT 0.05Lucassen

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWaalwijkNAC Breda
    Points47
    xPoints4.25.2
    xG per match1.12
    xGA per match1.21.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.390.3
    Playing styleWaalwijkNAC Breda
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.620.77
    xT per match1.21.7
    xTA per match0.990.88
    Won balls, offensive half3033
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.35
    Entries into the box per match1918
    Entries into the box against99
    Pass completion %0.760.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.73
    Passes per match374448
    Passes against per match312248
    Switches of play per match2832.9
    Long balls per match3845
    Set piecesWaalwijkNAC Breda
    xG from free kicks0.080.15
    Corners per match37.2
    Corners against per match4.73
    xG per corner0.020.06
    xGA per corner against0.020.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.58
    OtherWaalwijkNAC Breda
    Throw-in control0.710.84
    The goalkeepersNiek Schiks (Waalwijk)Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda)
    Saves1015
    Save %63%68%
    xG prevented44%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Waalwijk
    Fixtures, form & tips
    NAC Breda
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Waalwijk vs NAC Breda according to our model?

    The model gives Waalwijk a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waalwijk 41%, draw 25%, NAC Breda 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.