Roda vs Vitesse: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie12 September 202618°0,1 mm12 km/h

Läs på svenska

RodaPossession control

VitessePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Roda (42%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.65 (+4 %)

1 · Roda 42%X 26%32% Vitesse · 2

42%

26%

32%

Analysis: Roda – Vitesse

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT contains a factual error regarding the most likely scoreline.

FULL CORRECTED TEXT:

A mere four matches into their head-to-head history, Roda and Vitesse face off with a balance that's surprisingly intricate for such a brief rivalry. Both teams approach the game with tactical nuances that could define the evening. While Roda's possession-oriented strategy might aim to dictate the tempo, Vitesse's high press could disrupt the hosts’ rhythm, setting the stage for a fascinating tactical duel.

The numbers suggest a closely contested match. Roda’s chances stand at 42% compared to Vitesse’s 32%, with a 26% probability of a draw. The expected goals slightly favor Roda at 1.70 to Vitesse’s 1.52, hinting at a narrow edge for the hosts. However, Vitesse’s superior xG per match of 2.0 to Roda’s 1.7 shows they have been more efficient in creating scoring opportunities. This efficiency could be pivotal in a match with such fine margins.

Despite Roda having a slight edge in expected goals against (1.2 versus 1.4), Vitesse’s ability to press high and convert chances might neutralize this defensive advantage. The most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-2—are tightly knit, with a 1-1 draw surfacing as the single most probable outcome. With a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match leans towards being goal-rich, supported by a healthy 64% likelihood of both teams scoring.

For those seeking value, the over 3.5 goals market offers a tempting opportunity. With odds of 2.52 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model identifies a slight edge, rating it at 40%. This small margin could be the sharp angle for punters looking to capitalize on the evening’s tactical tussle.

Roda

Form LWWDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #9xP/match #4Points #9

Key players

Joshua NisbetLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
Lucas BeertenCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
Mitchel PaulissenRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.08

Vitesse

Form DWLWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #3xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Naoufal BannisFxG 0.84 · xT -0.11
Nathangelo Alexandro MarkeloRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.37
Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.30

Match prediction: Roda – Vitesse

Predicted score matrix

Vitesse →

Roda →

0–04.3%

0–15.8%

0–24.6%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.5%

1–110.6%

1–27.9%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.8%

2–26.7%

2–33.4%

2–4+1.8%

3–03.3%

3–15.0%

3–23.8%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–02.0%

4+–13.1%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,70–1,52

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.22

Over 2,562%

@1.62EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Roda or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Roda or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Naoufal Bannis to score26%
Mathijs Marschalk to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.522% probability@4.65BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.522% probability@4.65BetssonEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.522% probability@4.65NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Roda	X	2 · Vitesse
Betsafe	2.15	3.60	2.95
Betsson	2.15	3.60	2.95
Nordicbet	2.15	3.60	2.95

Odds updated 11 Sept, 13:38

Odds movement

10 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.15

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.60 → 3.60

2+2 %

34 %29 %

2.90 → 2.95

Over 2,5+1 %

61 %56 %

1.60 → 1.62

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Roda 1Draw 1Vitesse 2

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Roda

Vitesse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Roda (6–5)

Vitesse (10–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Roda

Vitesse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Roda

Vitesse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Roda	Vitesse
Points	8	10
xPoints	8.4	9
xG per match	1.7	2
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.15

Playing style	Roda	Vitesse
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.4	0.6
xT per match	1.2	1.6
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.35
Entries into the box per match	13	17
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	356	348
Passes against per match	358	316
Switches of play per match	16.6	30.2
Long balls per match	29	38

Set pieces	Roda	Vitesse
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.05
Corners per match	4.6	5
Corners against per match	3.2	5
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.64

Other	Roda	Vitesse
Throw-in control	0.73	0.75

The goalkeepers	Justin Treichel (Roda)	Connor van den Berg (Vitesse)
Saves	17	11
Save %	81%	85%
xG prevented	65%	87%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Roda

Fixtures, form & tips

Vitesse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Roda vs Vitesse according to our model?

The model gives Roda a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roda 42%, draw 26%, Vitesse 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.