Eerste Divisie14°3,3 mm25 km/h

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    TOP OssTOP OssLow block & direct
    vs
    DordrechtDordrechtPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · TOP Oss (43%)

    TOP Oss – Dordrecht · Eerste Divisie

    1 · TOP Oss 43%X 24%33% Dordrecht · 2

    Analysis: TOP Oss – Dordrecht

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Expect a clash of styles as TOP Oss and Dordrecht face off, with the hosts leaning on a direct approach while the visitors aim to control possession. The numbers suggest a tightly contested match, with TOP Oss given a slight edge by the model at 43% probability to win. Despite this, the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, appearing 12% of the time in simulations, hinting at a balanced affair where neither side can establish dominance.

    The hosts have a marginally better expected goals metric at 1.51 compared to Dordrecht's 1.44. TOP Oss seem better equipped defensively, given Dordrecht's leaky defense with 2.3 expected goals against per match. Still, Dordrecht’s recent three-match losing streak might add extra motivation to rectify their form, making them unpredictable challengers.

    Head-to-head encounters since 2023 have been roughly even (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss for TOP Oss), though the sample size of four matches tempers its significance. Both teams are neck and neck in actual points (3 vs. 4), yet TOP Oss boast superior underlying metrics, leading in expected points (6.8 vs. 4.7) and expected goals per match (1.2 vs. 1.1). These statistics underline their potential to edge out Dordrecht, especially if they capitalize on the visitors' defensive vulnerabilities.

    For bettors, the market offers intriguing opportunities. With a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, the match could see a few net ripples, although a narrow scoreline feels likelier. TOP Oss to win might hold value, especially given their defensive edge and Dordrecht's poor run. Yet, caution is advised as the margin is slim, and the potential for a draw is significant.

    TOP OssTOP Oss
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #17xP/match #11Points #18
    Key players
    • Franslyn NsingiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
    • Mauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho HinokeLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
    • Maurilio de LannoyFxG 0.18 · xT 0.15
    DordrechtDordrecht
    Form WDLLL
    League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #10xP/match #19Points #17
    Key players
    • Ayoub OuarghiCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
    • Sem ValkCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
    • Dario ŠitsFxG 0.27 · xT 0.00

    Match prediction: TOP Oss – Dordrecht

    Predicted score matrix

    Dordrecht →
    TOP Oss →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.6%
    0–17.2%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–07.6%
    1–111.7%
    1–28.2%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–18.6%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–14.3%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,51–1,44
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,543%
    –
    Over 2,557%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance TOP Oss or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance TOP Oss or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Franslyn Nsingi to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Franslyn Nsingi to score26%
    • Jaden Pinas to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    TOP Oss 1Draw 2Dordrecht 1
    Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Dordrecht have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    TOP Oss
    Dordrecht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    TOP Oss (4–9)
    Dordrecht (8–16)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 183 passningar, xT 0.76VianelloMike Havekotte: 128 passningar, xT 0.26HavekotteIlounga Isea Pata: 125 passningar, xT 0.72PataJulian Kuijpers: 114 passningar, xT 0.28KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 104 passningar, xT 0.12MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 98 passningar, xT 0.06EsajasMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 69 passningar, xT 0.34HinokeRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 57 passningar, xT 0.08VenneMaurilio de Lannoy: 52 passningar, xT 0.69LannoyMert Erkan: 38 passningar, xT 0.55ErkanFranslyn Nsingi: 34 passningar, xT 0.08Nsingi
    Dordrecht
    Jaden Pinas: 213 passningar, xT 0.22PinasCalvin Owen Harm Raatsie: 210 passningar, xT 0.24RaatsieSenne Vugts: 163 passningar, xT 0.53VugtsAyoub Ouarghi: 152 passningar, xT 0.44OuarghiAdil Lechkar: 135 passningar, xT 0.12LechkarBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 131 passningar, xT 0.79MpanzuJurre Van Aken: 127 passningar, xT 0.67AkenYannis M'Bemba: 115 passningar, xT 0.2M'BembaNick Venema: 107 passningar, xT 1.3VenemaSem Valk: 92 passningar, xT 0.05ValkBjörn Bryan Hardley: 70 passningar, xT 0.14Hardley
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 183 passningar, xT 0.76VianelloMike Havekotte: 128 passningar, xT 0.26HavekotteIlounga Isea Pata: 125 passningar, xT 0.72PataJulian Kuijpers: 114 passningar, xT 0.28KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 104 passningar, xT 0.12MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 98 passningar, xT 0.06EsajasMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 69 passningar, xT 0.34HinokeRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 57 passningar, xT 0.08VenneMaurilio de Lannoy: 52 passningar, xT 0.69LannoyMert Erkan: 38 passningar, xT 0.55ErkanFranslyn Nsingi: 34 passningar, xT 0.08Nsingi
    Dordrecht
    Jaden Pinas: 213 passningar, xT 0.22PinasCalvin Owen Harm Raatsie: 210 passningar, xT 0.24RaatsieSenne Vugts: 163 passningar, xT 0.53VugtsAyoub Ouarghi: 152 passningar, xT 0.44OuarghiAdil Lechkar: 135 passningar, xT 0.12LechkarBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 131 passningar, xT 0.79MpanzuJurre Van Aken: 127 passningar, xT 0.67AkenYannis M'Bemba: 115 passningar, xT 0.2M'BembaNick Venema: 107 passningar, xT 1.3VenemaSem Valk: 92 passningar, xT 0.05ValkBjörn Bryan Hardley: 70 passningar, xT 0.14Hardley

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTOP OssDordrecht
    Points34
    xPoints6.84.7
    xG per match1.21.1
    xGA per match1.82.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.38
    Playing styleTOP OssDordrecht
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.330.52
    xT per match0.971.2
    xTA per match1.71.1
    Won balls, offensive half2426
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.260.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.26
    Entries into the box per match1313
    Entries into the box against1916
    Pass completion %0.650.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.590.7
    Passes per match231370
    Passes against per match440304
    Switches of play per match23.428.7
    Long balls per match4248
    Set piecesTOP OssDordrecht
    xG from free kicks0.050.08
    Corners per match5.25
    Corners against per match7.34.8
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.46
    OtherTOP OssDordrecht
    Throw-in control0.690.74
    The goalkeepersMike Havekotte (TOP Oss)Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)
    Saves1625
    Save %67%61%
    xG prevented44%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    TOP Oss
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dordrecht
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins TOP Oss vs Dordrecht according to our model?

    The model gives TOP Oss a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: TOP Oss 43%, draw 24%, Dordrecht 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.