Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax: Prediction & Odds (14 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie14 September 202618°0,4 mm16 km/h

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Jong UtrechtPossession control

Jong AjaxPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Jong Utrecht (38%)Soft draw

1 · Jong Utrecht 38%X 25%37% Jong Ajax · 2

38%

25%

37%

Analysis: Jong Utrecht – Jong Ajax

Sofia Andersson · 10 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The tension is palpable as Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax are almost evenly matched on the probabilities, with the hosts having a slight model lean at 38% win likelihood against the visitors' 37%. This balance is reflected in their head-to-head since 2023, where Utrecht holds a narrow lead with 2 wins to Ajax's 1 in four matches—a small sample that bears less weight than their current form. Despite Jong Ajax's superior points tally (7 to 1), the xPoints tell a closer story: 5.6 for the hosts and 6.0 for the visitors.

Both teams adopt a possession-control strategy, but Ajax edges in expected goals with 1.74 compared to Utrecht's 1.53. Yet, underperformance in converting these opportunities has been a theme for both sides. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 63% and both teams likely to score at 65%. The expected draw at 1-1 (10%) or narrow wins either way (1-2 and 2-1 at 9% and 8% respectively) suggest a tight contest.

The real value here lies in backing Jong Utrecht at 2.75 with Bet365. The odds slightly favor the home side when considering the model's preference and potential for a narrow upset. With both defenses leaky, expect goals but keep an eye on the underdog — they might just edge it.

Jong Utrecht

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #18xP/match #21Points #20

Key players

Noa DundasFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
Bjorn MenzoRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.19
Wessel KooyCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.00

Jong Ajax

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #19xP/match #18Points #11

Key players

Pharell NashLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.33
Emre ÜnüvarRWxG 0.49 · xT 0.09
Alejandro Monserrate PueyoRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Jong Utrecht – Jong Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Jong Ajax →

Jong Utrecht →

0–04.1%

0–16.3%

0–25.8%

0–33.3%

0–4+2.2%

1–05.5%

1–110.4%

1–28.8%

1–35.1%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.4%

2–17.7%

2–26.7%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.5%

3–02.3%

3–13.9%

3–23.4%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.8%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,53–1,74

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

–

Over 2,563%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Jong Utrecht or draw (1X)57%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Jong Utrecht or draw (1X)57%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Jessey Sneijder to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Emre Ünüvar to score20%
Mark Thomas Willem Verkuijl to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Jong Utrecht 2Draw 1Jong Ajax 1

Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jong Utrecht

Jong Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jong Utrecht (5–15)

Jong Ajax (12–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jong Utrecht

Jong Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jong Utrecht

Jong Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jong Utrecht	Jong Ajax
Points	1	7
xPoints	5.6	6
xG per match	1	1.3
xGA per match	2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.19

Playing style	Jong Utrecht	Jong Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.29
Field tilt	0.36	0.44
xT per match	0.95	0.86
xTA per match	1.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	25	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.29
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	18	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.73
Passes per match	298	357
Passes against per match	370	310
Switches of play per match	24.4	31.3
Long balls per match	32	39

Set pieces	Jong Utrecht	Jong Ajax
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	4.9	4.3
Corners against per match	4.9	7.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.59

Other	Jong Utrecht	Jong Ajax
Throw-in control	0.76	0.71

The goalkeepers	Mees Eppink (Jong Utrecht)	Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax)
Saves	14	26
Save %	58%	67%
xG prevented	49%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jong Utrecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Jong Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Jong Utrecht a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Utrecht 38%, draw 25%, Jong Ajax 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.