Vitesse vs Jong PSV: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie19 September 202614°7,2 mm24 km/h

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VitessePossession & high press

Jong PSVPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Vitesse (49%)

1 · Vitesse 49%X 23%28% Jong PSV · 2

49%

23%

28%

Analysis: Vitesse – Jong PSV

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The sharpest number here is the 70% probability for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a higher-scoring affair is likely. Both teams, Vitesse and Jong PSV, favor a possession-oriented, high-press style, and with expected goals of 1.95 for the hosts and 1.67 for the visitors, the matchup leans toward an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The head-to-head record is evenly split at 2-2 across four encounters, a small sample that takes a backseat to current form and xG metrics.

Vitesse's tactical setup should find gaps against a PSV U21 side that narrowly edges them in points and xPoints this season. However, the home side's superior xG per match indicates they possess the tools to exploit any defensive lags from the visitors, despite marginally higher xGA figures. Considering these insights, a 2-1 win for Vitesse is a plausible outcome, aligning with the model's most likely scoreline.

For bettors, the best angle lies in the goal market. Given the strong model support for over 2.5 goals at 70%, this is underscored by the aligned playing styles of both squads. Unibet's odds of 1.80 on this market present potential value for those looking to capitalize on expected offensive fireworks.

Vitesse

Form DWLWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #3xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Naoufal BannisFxG 0.84 · xT -0.11
Nathangelo Alexandro MarkeloRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.37
Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.30

Jong PSV

Form LWDDW

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #13xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Austyn Monet JonesFxG 0.71 · xT -0.01
Jordy BawuahCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Madi MonamayCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Vitesse – Jong PSV

Predicted score matrix

Jong PSV →

Vitesse →

0–02.9%

0–14.2%

0–23.7%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.3%

1–05.0%

1–19.0%

1–27.3%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.1%

2–18.5%

2–27.1%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.4%

3–03.3%

3–15.5%

3–24.6%

3–32.6%

3–4+1.6%

4+–02.5%

4+–14.2%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.9%

4+–4+1.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-19%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,95–1,67

Both teams to score

70%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

–

Over 2,570%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vitesse to win49%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vitesse to win49%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Naoufal Bannis to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score70%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Naoufal Bannis to score32%
Fabian Merién to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Vitesse 2Draw 0Jong PSV 2

Goals: 10–10 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vitesse

Jong PSV

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vitesse (10–7)

Jong PSV (11–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vitesse

Jong PSV

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vitesse

Jong PSV

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vitesse	Jong PSV
Points	10	11
xPoints	9	10.2
xG per match	2	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.22

Playing style	Vitesse	Jong PSV
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.6	0.6
xT per match	1.6	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.34
Entries into the box per match	17	13
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	348	396
Passes against per match	316	280
Switches of play per match	30.2	26.5
Long balls per match	38	40

Set pieces	Vitesse	Jong PSV
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	5	5.7
Corners against per match	5	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.28	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.63

Other	Vitesse	Jong PSV
Throw-in control	0.75	0.77

The goalkeepers	Connor van den Berg (Vitesse)	Khadim Ngom (Jong PSV)
Saves	11	16
Save %	85%	73%
xG prevented	87%	76%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vitesse

Fixtures, form & tips

Jong PSV

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vitesse vs Jong PSV according to our model?

The model gives Vitesse a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vitesse 49%, draw 23%, Jong PSV 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.