Eerste Divisie16°0,6 mm18 km/h

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    VVV-VenloVVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    TOP OssTOP OssLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · VVV-Venlo (51%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.90 (+39 %)

    VVV-Venlo – TOP Oss · Eerste Divisie

    1 · VVV-Venlo 51%X 25%24% TOP Oss · 2

    Analysis: VVV-Venlo – TOP Oss

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TOP Oss have frequently had the upper hand in their encounters with VVV-Venlo, winning three of their last six meetings since 2023, while Venlo has only managed to secure one victory. However, this historical edge should be viewed cautiously, given the small sample size. The current form paints a different picture, with VVV-Venlo sitting on 9 points compared to TOP Oss's 3. Despite their lack of dominance in head-to-heads, the hosts are positioned as clear favorites in this matchup, with a model probability of 51%.

    VVV-Venlo's strength lies in their counter-attacking prowess and reliance on crosses. This style is likely to clash with TOP Oss's approach, characterized by a low defensive block and direct play. The hosts have an expected goals average of 1.73, overshadowing the visitors' 1.02. Despite this, the most likely scorelines—1-1 and 1-0—suggest a tight affair, highlighting VVV-Venlo's struggle to convert superior xG into a clear advantage on the scoreboard.

    The expected goals against (xGA) metric shows that both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, with Venlo conceding an average of 2.1 xGA per match against Oss's 1.8. This points to potential defensive frailties that could be exploited, yet it seems that both defenses are just solid enough to keep the scoreline under control. An over 2.5 goals chance of 52% aligns closely with a 53% likelihood for both teams to score, hinting at a balanced game.

    The sharpest angle here lies in the value offered by the under 2.5 goals market. With odds of 2.72 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there is a notable 31% edge according to the model. Given the overall balance and defensive tendencies of both teams, an under 2.5 goals outcome appears not only plausible but potentially profitable.

    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
    Form LWWWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #20xT #14xP/match #14Points #7
    Key players
    • Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
    • Edhy Yvan ZulianiRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.29
    • Lars de BlokLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.22
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #17xP/match #11Points #18
    Key players
    • Franslyn NsingiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
    • Mauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho HinokeLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
    • Maurilio de LannoyFxG 0.18 · xT 0.15

    Match prediction: VVV-Venlo – TOP Oss

    Predicted score matrix

    TOP Oss →
    VVV-Venlo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–16.2%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–010.7%
    1–111.6%
    1–25.7%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.5%
    3–15.6%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.5%
    4+–13.6%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,73–1,02
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,548%
    @2.75EV+32%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.43

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • VVV-Venlo to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.32

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • VVV-Venlo to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Dean Zandbergen to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Dean Zandbergen to score31%
    • Leonel Miquel Francisco Miguel to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.524% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+39%reference odds
    • Under 1.524% probability@5.90BetssonEV+39%reference odds
    • Under 1.524% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+39%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VVV-VenloX2 · TOP Oss
    Betsafe1.853.603.70
    Betsson1.853.603.70
    Nordicbet1.853.603.70

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 11:39

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    53 %48 %

    1.82 → 1.85

    X-6 %
    27 %22 %

    3.85 → 3.60

    20 %
    28 %23 %

    3.70 → 3.70

    Over 2,5+1 %
    68 %63 %

    1.41 → 1.43

    Betsafe · 12 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    VVV-Venlo 1Draw 2TOP Oss 3
    Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • TOP Oss dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    VVV-Venlo
    TOP Oss
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    VVV-Venlo (13–9)
    TOP Oss (4–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    VVV-Venlo
    Éanna Clancy: 208 passningar, xT 0.38ClancyYouri Schoonderwaldt: 186 passningar, xT 0.22SchoonderwaldtLars de Blok: 155 passningar, xT 1.03BlokGabin Blancquart: 135 passningar, xT 0.03BlancquartTristan Schenkhuizen: 112 passningar, xT 0.04SchenkhuizenLuis Gorlich: 112 passningar, xT 0.38GorlichRaf Vullers: 99 passningar, xT 0.1VullersEdhy Yvan Zuliani: 82 passningar, xT 1.1ZulianiMohammed Odriss: 61 passningar, xT 0.34OdrissAlex Adrianus Antonius Schalk: 57 passningar, xT 0.21SchalkNassim Ait Mouhou: 37 passningar, xT 0.39Mouhou
    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 183 passningar, xT 0.76VianelloMike Havekotte: 128 passningar, xT 0.26HavekotteIlounga Isea Pata: 125 passningar, xT 0.72PataJulian Kuijpers: 114 passningar, xT 0.28KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 104 passningar, xT 0.12MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 98 passningar, xT 0.06EsajasMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 69 passningar, xT 0.34HinokeRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 57 passningar, xT 0.08VenneMaurilio de Lannoy: 52 passningar, xT 0.69LannoyMert Erkan: 38 passningar, xT 0.55ErkanFranslyn Nsingi: 34 passningar, xT 0.08Nsingi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    VVV-Venlo
    Éanna Clancy: 208 passningar, xT 0.38ClancyYouri Schoonderwaldt: 186 passningar, xT 0.22SchoonderwaldtLars de Blok: 155 passningar, xT 1.03BlokGabin Blancquart: 135 passningar, xT 0.03BlancquartTristan Schenkhuizen: 112 passningar, xT 0.04SchenkhuizenLuis Gorlich: 112 passningar, xT 0.38GorlichRaf Vullers: 99 passningar, xT 0.1VullersEdhy Yvan Zuliani: 82 passningar, xT 1.1ZulianiMohammed Odriss: 61 passningar, xT 0.34OdrissAlex Adrianus Antonius Schalk: 57 passningar, xT 0.21SchalkNassim Ait Mouhou: 37 passningar, xT 0.39Mouhou
    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 183 passningar, xT 0.76VianelloMike Havekotte: 128 passningar, xT 0.26HavekotteIlounga Isea Pata: 125 passningar, xT 0.72PataJulian Kuijpers: 114 passningar, xT 0.28KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 104 passningar, xT 0.12MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 98 passningar, xT 0.06EsajasMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 69 passningar, xT 0.34HinokeRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 57 passningar, xT 0.08VenneMaurilio de Lannoy: 52 passningar, xT 0.69LannoyMert Erkan: 38 passningar, xT 0.55ErkanFranslyn Nsingi: 34 passningar, xT 0.08Nsingi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVVV-VenloTOP Oss
    Points93
    xPoints66.8
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match2.11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.10.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.340.2
    Playing styleVVV-VenloTOP Oss
    Build-up efficiency0.30.31
    Field tilt0.360.33
    xT per match1.10.97
    xTA per match1.81.7
    Won balls, offensive half2324
    Pressing intensity0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency0.290.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.24
    Entries into the box per match1313
    Entries into the box against1519
    Pass completion %0.720.65
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.59
    Passes per match274231
    Passes against per match382440
    Switches of play per match20.223.4
    Long balls per match3142
    Set piecesVVV-VenloTOP Oss
    xG from free kicks0.060.05
    Corners per match4.25.2
    Corners against per match6.17.3
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.770.67
    OtherVVV-VenloTOP Oss
    Throw-in control0.690.69
    The goalkeepersYouri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo)Mike Havekotte (TOP Oss)
    Saves1816
    Save %67%67%
    xG prevented28%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    VVV-Venlo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    TOP Oss
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins VVV-Venlo vs TOP Oss according to our model?

    The model gives VVV-Venlo a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VVV-Venlo 51%, draw 25%, TOP Oss 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.