ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie19 September 2026Bingoal Stadion, Den Haag15°7,5 mm23 km/h

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ADO Den HaagCounter-attacks & crosses

CambuurPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · ADO Den Haag (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Cambuur @ 4.50 (+13 %)

1 · ADO Den Haag 49%X 26%25% Cambuur · 2

49%

26%

25%

Analysis: ADO Den Haag – Cambuur

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: The clash between ADO Den Haag and Cambuur presents an intriguing tactical battle, shaped by the hosts' counter-attacking tendencies against the visitors' preference for possession control. In their limited head-to-head encounters, statistics favor the home side, but the sample size is not robust enough to overshadow current form and expected goals data.

Analyzing recent performances, Cambuur edges out ADO in expected points, boasting 4.0 to their opponent's 3.8. This suggests a subtle advantage for the visitors in terms of consistent results. Further dissecting xG metrics, Cambuur again shows superiority with 1.1 expected goals per match compared to Den Haag's meager 0.68. However, defensively, ADO demonstrates a firmer grip, conceding fewer expected goals on average.

Despite Cambuur's edge in attacking metrics, the probability model gives Den Haag a 49% chance of victory, highlighting the home advantage and the visitors' higher expected goals against. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% underlines a probable tight contest, with a decent chance of both teams finding the net, reflected in the 61% likelihood of both teams scoring.

For bettors, the sharpest angle is found in the over 2.5 goals market, set at 59%. This, combined with the expectation of both teams to get on the scoreboard, suggests an open game where scoring chances are created by both tactical setups. Den Haag's favorable home model lean, combined with Cambuur's defensive vulnerabilities, presents a value opportunity worth considering.

ADO Den Haag

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #9xT #15xP/match #18Points #15

Key players

Juho KiloCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Yannick Fereira EduardoFxG 0.23 · xT -0.02
Pascal MulderCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09

Cambuur

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #9xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Nicolas BinderFxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
Rafik El ArguiouiLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.17
Jamal AmofaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: ADO Den Haag – Cambuur

Predicted score matrix

Cambuur →

ADO Den Haag →

0–05.0%

0–16.0%

0–24.2%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–07.8%

1–111.2%

1–27.2%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.0%

2–19.3%

2–26.2%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.0%

3–15.3%

3–23.6%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,72–1,33

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.63EV+7%

Over 2,559%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

ADO Den Haag to win49%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

ADO Den Haag to win49%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Yannick Fereira Eduardo to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Yannick Fereira Eduardo to score30%
Billy van Duijl to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Cambuur25% probability@4.50Bet365EV+13%reference odds
2 · Cambuur25% probability@4.38BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Cambuur25% probability@4.38BetssonEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · ADO Den Haag	X	2 · Cambuur
Bet365	1.67	EV+ 5% 4.00	EV+ 13% 4.50
Betsafe	1.67	EV+ 9% 4.13	EV+ 10% 4.38
Betsson	1.67	EV+ 9% 4.13	EV+ 10% 4.38
Nordicbet	1.67	EV+ 9% 4.13	EV+ 10% 4.38

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:38

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

ADO Den Haag

Cambuur

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

ADO Den Haag (6–14)

Cambuur (6–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

ADO Den Haag

Cambuur

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

ADO Den Haag

Cambuur

The teams in numbers

Performance	ADO Den Haag	Cambuur
Points	1	1
xPoints	3.8	4
xG per match	0.68	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.29

Playing style	ADO Den Haag	Cambuur
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.38	0.42
xT per match	0.75	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	19
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	15	16
Pass completion %	0.78	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.75
Passes per match	366	348
Passes against per match	384	350
Switches of play per match	29.3	24.4
Long balls per match	42	27

Set pieces	ADO Den Haag	Cambuur
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	4	3.8
Corners against per match	5.4	6
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.81	0.6

Other	ADO Den Haag	Cambuur
Throw-in control	0.82	0.82

The goalkeepers	Kilian Nikiema (ADO Den Haag)	Thijs Jansen (Cambuur)
Saves	26	18
Save %	65%	51%
xG prevented	50%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

ADO Den Haag

Fixtures, form & tips

Cambuur

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur according to our model?

The model gives ADO Den Haag a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: ADO Den Haag 49%, draw 26%, Cambuur 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.