Ajax vs Excelsior: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie19 September 2026Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam14°8,7 mm19 km/h

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AjaxPossession & high press

ExcelsiorLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Ajax (75%)

1 · Ajax 75%X 16%9% Excelsior · 2

75%

16%

Analysis: Ajax – Excelsior

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: With possession stats and pressing tactics ready to define the shape of the game, Ajax look set to dominate the proceedings against an Excelsior side prepared to defend deep and strike direct. The hosts' high-pressure style contrasts sharply with the visitors' more reserved approach, setting the stage for a clash of footballing philosophies.

Despite Excelsior's recent head-to-head advantage – a win and a draw in their two meetings since 2022 – the sample size is too small to overshadow Ajax's overall form. The model sees a 75% chance of victory for the Amsterdam side, suggesting that their past struggles against the visitors may not hold much weight. Meanwhile, Excelsior's scoring streak of 10 consecutive league matches indicates they won't be easily kept at bay.

Digging into the numbers, Ajax's expected goals of 2.62 dwarf Excelsior's 1.01, pointing towards a likely win for the home team. However, with Ajax winning just 58% of their home fixtures historically and Excelsior's ability to find the net consistently, a goal from both sides seems likely. The model's most probable scorelines highlight a 2-1 or 2-0 result, underlining the home side's attacking prowess.

Given the 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score sitting at 59%, betting on Ajax to win with a scoreline of 2-1 or 3-1 could be valuable. As the numbers suggest a goal-filled evening, this represents the sharpest angle for bettors seeking a bit of value.

Ajax

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #5xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Lucas RosaRBxG 0.17 · xT 0.31
Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.09
Aaron BouwmanCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13

Excelsior

Form WLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #10xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Irakli YegoianFxG 0.16 · xT 0.41
David GardenFxG 0.60 · xT -0.03
Simon JanssenLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Ajax – Excelsior

Predicted score matrix

Excelsior →

Ajax →

0–02.9%

0–12.5%

0–21.4%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–06.7%

1–17.2%

1–23.5%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.4%

2–09.1%

2–19.2%

2–24.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–08.0%

3–18.0%

3–24.1%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.4%

4+–09.8%

4+–19.9%

4+–25.0%

4+–31.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.2-09%
3.3-18%
4.3-08%
5.1-17%

Expected goals

2,62–1,01

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

@2.88

Over 2,570%

@1.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ajax to win75%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ajax to win75%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score43%
Lennard Hartjes to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Ajax75% probability@1.35BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Ajax75% probability@1.35BetssonEV+1%reference odds
1 · Ajax75% probability@1.35NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ajax	X	2 · Excelsior
Bet365	EV+ 0% 1.33	5.25	7.50
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 1.35	4.71	8.53
Betsson	EV+ 1% 1.35	4.71	8.53
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 1.35	4.71	8.53

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ajax 0Draw 1Excelsior 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

Excelsior Rotterdam have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
AFC Ajax win 58% of their home matches all-time (72 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ajax

Excelsior

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ajax (9–5)

Excelsior (12–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ajax

Excelsior

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ajax

Excelsior

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ajax	Excelsior
Points	7	10
xPoints	6.8	9
xG per match	2.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.13

Playing style	Ajax	Excelsior
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.7	0.41
xT per match	1.5	1.1
xTA per match	0.77	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	24	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.23
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	9	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.67
Passes per match	464	301
Passes against per match	324	465
Switches of play per match	24.6	32.9
Long balls per match	34	45

Set pieces	Ajax	Excelsior
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	5.4	5
Corners against per match	2.5	5
xG per corner	0.04	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.68

Other	Ajax	Excelsior
Throw-in control	0.73	0.72

The goalkeepers	Marc-André ter Stegen (Ajax)	Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior)
Saves	15	11
Save %	75%	69%
xG prevented	60%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Excelsior

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ajax vs Excelsior according to our model?

The model gives Ajax a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ajax 75%, draw 16%, Excelsior 9%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.