Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie5 September 2026Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam18°0,1 mm24 km/h

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AjaxPossession & high press

1–3

PSV EindhovenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · PSV Eindhoven (39%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 2.04 (+5 %)

1 · Ajax 36%X 26%39% PSV Eindhoven · 2

36%

26%

39%

Analysis: Ajax – PSV Eindhoven

Anna Karlsson · 4 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Ajax and PSV Eindhoven since 2022 shows a balanced outcome with 2 wins for Ajax, 3 draws, and 3 wins for PSV. While this might suggest a closely contested affair, other factors point towards PSV having the upper hand. Notably, Ajax's recent unbeaten run in their last six league matches contrasts with PSV's more dominant three straight victories. But it is PSV's consistency in scoring that's truly remarkable, having found the net in 34 consecutive league games. This scoring streak is a testament to their attacking prowess and will be a critical factor in this encounter.

The model's probabilities slightly favor PSV, with a 39% chance of victory compared to Ajax's 36%. The expected goals (xG) also lean towards PSV, at 1.90 compared to Ajax's 1.71. This suggests that while both teams are likely to create opportunities, PSV may edge it in converting those chances. Ajax's stronghold lies in their high press and possession-based play, yet PSV's similar style and superior xG statistics indicate they might be better equipped to exploit any defensive lapses from Ajax.

With an average of 3.8 goals per meeting, this fixture typically promises goals, and the model's 70% probability for over 2.5 goals aligns with that history. Both teams are expected to score, also at 70%, underscoring the attacking capabilities on display. While Ajax's defensive record isn't poor, with an xGA of 0.91 per match, PSV's formidable attack that boasts an xG of 2.8 per match could puncture their defenses.

Given the alignment of model probabilities, expected goals, and both teams' styles of play, a 1-2 scoreline in favor of PSV seems plausible.

Ajax

Form WDWDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.02
Lucas RosaRBxG 0.17 · xT 0.32
Aaron BouwmanCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12

PSV Eindhoven

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #5xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Sergino DestRWBxG 0.29 · xT 0.31
Mauro Jaqueson Júnior Ferreira dos SantosLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Ruben van BommelLWxG 0.57 · xT 0.15

Final score

1 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Ajax 36% · Draw 26% · PSV Eindhoven 39%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - PSV EindhovenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,21fair 5,31-21 %

Hit

Matchresultat - AjaxBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,59fair 6,59-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Ajax – PSV Eindhoven

Predicted score matrix

PSV Eindhoven →

Ajax →

0–03.0%

0–14.9%

0–24.9%

0–33.1%

0–4+2.3%

1–04.4%

1–19.1%

1–28.4%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.9%

2–04.0%

2–17.5%

2–27.1%

2–34.5%

2–4+3.3%

3–02.3%

3–14.3%

3–24.1%

3–32.6%

3–4+1.9%

4+–01.4%

4+–12.7%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+1.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-19%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.1-35%

Expected goals

1,71–1,90

Both teams to score

70%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+29%

Under 2,530%

@3.47EV+5%

Over 2,570%

@1.27

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2)65%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Esmir Bajraktarević to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score70%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score29%
Jerdy Schouten to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.551% probability@2.04BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.551% probability@2.04BetssonEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.551% probability@2.04NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ajax	X	2 · PSV Eindhoven
Betsafe	2.60	EV+ 3% 4.01	2.30
Betsson	2.60	EV+ 3% 4.01	2.30
Nordicbet	2.60	EV+ 3% 4.01	2.30
Pinnacle	2.61	EV+ 4% 4.04	2.46

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1+3 %

39 %34 %

2.53 → 2.61

X+4 %

26 %21 %

3.87 → 4.04

2+1 %

42 %37 %

2.43 → 2.46

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Ajax 2Draw 3PSV Eindhoven 3

Goals: 13–17 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
AFC Ajax are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
PSV Eindhoven come into this round on 3 straight wins.
PSV Eindhoven have scored in 34 consecutive league matches.
AFC Ajax win 59% of their home matches all-time (71 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ajax

PSV Eindhoven

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ajax (8–2)

PSV Eindhoven (15–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ajax

PSV Eindhoven

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ajax

PSV Eindhoven

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ajax	PSV Eindhoven
Points	7	10
xPoints	5.9	8.7
xG per match	2.3	2.8
xGA per match	0.91	0.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.06

Playing style	Ajax	PSV Eindhoven
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.74	0.83
xT per match	1.5	1.5
xTA per match	0.55	0.42
Won balls, offensive half	22	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.3
Entries into the box per match	16	24
Entries into the box against	9	5
Pass completion %	0.83	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.79
Passes per match	483	570
Passes against per match	307	257
Switches of play per match	27.2	35.4
Long balls per match	33	36

Set pieces	Ajax	PSV Eindhoven
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.04
Corners per match	7	9.5
Corners against per match	3	1.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	1

Other	Ajax	PSV Eindhoven
Throw-in control	0.69	0.78

The goalkeepers	Marc-André ter Stegen (Ajax)	Matej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven)
Saves	13	7
Save %	87%	58%
xG prevented	78%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

PSV Eindhoven

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven according to our model?

The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ajax 36%, draw 26%, PSV Eindhoven 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.