Ajax vs Willem II: Prediction & Odds (15 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie15 September 2026Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam18°3,6 mm18 km/h

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AjaxPossession & high press

Willem IILow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Ajax (82%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 11.00 (+16 %)

1 · Ajax 82%X 12%7% Willem II · 2

82%

Analysis: Ajax – Willem II

Oscar Nilsson · 10 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Ajax are poised to dominate as Willem II travel to Amsterdam, with the home side's possession-based high press set to challenge the visitors' low defensive block. Ajax hold the clear upper hand in this match-up. The most telling numbers: Ajax boast a commanding 82% chance of victory, and the expected goals favour them heavily at 2.87 to Willem II's 0.94. The model leans heavily towards a home win, with 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1 all equally likely scorelines.

The rain forecast, with 4.8 mm expected, could dampen the attacking tempo, yet the model still projects over 2.5 goals at 73%. Ajax's historical home win rate of 58% in all-time matches further bolsters their standing. In terms of current form, Ajax have picked up seven points compared to Willem II's solitary point, emphasizing the gulf in quality.

Willem II's defensive frailties are evident, with an xGA of 2.3 per match, while Ajax's offense is formidable, averaging 2.2 xG per game. Though the head-to-head record since 2022 is limited to just two matches, Ajax have won both encounters, reinforcing their dominance. The visitors’ only glimmer of hope lies in the value betting odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, which price them at 15.9 against a model probability of 7%—a 5% edge.

With Ajax's attacking prowess and Willem II's vulnerable defense, a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline seems the likely outcome. Rain may keep the goal tally lower, but Ajax should still find a way through. For those hunting value, the odds on a long-shot Willem II upset could be tempting, but the smart money remains on Ajax taking all three points.

Ajax

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #5xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Lucas RosaRBxG 0.17 · xT 0.31
Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.09
Aaron BouwmanCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13

Willem II

Form DLLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #12xP/match #14Points #16

Key players

Devin HaenFxG 0.20 · xT 0.05
Calvin TwigtCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
Hidde Willem ter AvestRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Ajax – Willem II

Predicted score matrix

Willem II →

Ajax →

0–02.4%

0–11.9%

0–21.0%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–06.2%

1–16.2%

1–22.8%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–09.2%

2–18.6%

2–24.0%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.8%

3–18.2%

3–23.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.3%

4+–012.7%

4+–111.9%

4+–25.5%

4+–31.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-09%
2.3-09%
3.2-19%
4.3-18%
5.4-06%

Expected goals

2,87–0,94

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,8

18%

216%

320%

419%

5+33%

Under 2,527%

@4.20EV+13%

Over 2,573%

@1.23

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ajax to win82%
Over 1.5 goals89%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ajax to win82%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score48%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score48%
Gijs Besselink to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.511% probability@11.00Bet365EV+16%reference odds
Under 2.527% probability@4.20Bet365EV+13%reference odds
Under 3.547% probability@2.38Bet365EV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ajax	X	2 · Willem II
Bet365	1.17	7.00	11.00
Betfair Exchange	1.15	EV+ 3% 8.80	EV+ 5% 16.00
Betsafe	1.17	6.54	EV+ 5% 15.90
Betsson	1.17	6.54	EV+ 5% 15.90
Nordicbet	1.17	6.54	EV+ 5% 15.90

Odds updated 11 Sept, 10:40

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.30 to 1.23 (−5%).

10 %

82 %77 %

1.17 → 1.17

X+1 %

16 %11 %

6.48 → 6.54

2-8 %

9 %4 %

17.29 → 15.90

Over 2,5-5 %

76 %71 %

1.30 → 1.23

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ajax 2Draw 0Willem II 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Ajax win 58% of their home matches all-time (72 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ajax

Willem II

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ajax (9–5)

Willem II (4–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ajax

Willem II

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ajax

Willem II

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ajax	Willem II
Points	7	1
xPoints	6.8	4.3
xG per match	2.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.34

Playing style	Ajax	Willem II
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.7	0.29
xT per match	1.5	1
xTA per match	0.77	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.22
Entries into the box per match	15	9
Entries into the box against	9	20
Pass completion %	0.82	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.67
Passes per match	464	276
Passes against per match	324	446
Switches of play per match	24.6	22.9
Long balls per match	34	37

Set pieces	Ajax	Willem II
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.07
Corners per match	5.4	4.8
Corners against per match	2.5	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.43

Other	Ajax	Willem II
Throw-in control	0.73	0.83

The goalkeepers	Marc-André ter Stegen (Ajax)	Karst de Leeuw (Willem II)
Saves	15	9
Save %	75%	60%
xG prevented	60%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Willem II

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ajax vs Willem II according to our model?

The model gives Ajax a 82% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ajax 82%, draw 12%, Willem II 7%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.