01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AZ Alkmaar to win68%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
EredivisieAFAS Stadion, Alkmaar19°18,3 mm37 km/h
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AZ AlkmaarPossession & high press5–2
Go Ahead EaglesPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · AZ Alkmaar (68%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.94 (+15 %)
AZ Alkmaar – Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie
1 · AZ Alkmaar 68%X 19%13% Go Ahead Eagles · 2
68%
19%
13%
Analysis: AZ Alkmaar – Go Ahead Eagles
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The numbers paint a clear picture: AZ Alkmaar enters the match as favorites with a 68% chance of victory, buoyed by their current three-game winning streak. Their attacking prowess is backed by an expected goals tally of 2.26, which dwarfs the 1.00 projected for Go Ahead Eagles. Despite the high probability of over 2.5 goals at 63%, the match might tilt towards a more controlled affair due to the forecasted rain, potentially dampening the attacking output.
A 2-0 or 2-1 victory for Alkmaar appears most probable, each with a 10% chance. Interestingly, the head-to-head data since 2022 might suggest otherwise, as Alkmaar has only managed one win in their last four encounters with the Eagles. However, the small sample size of these matches diminishes their weight against the backdrop of Alkmaar's current form and superior expected goals metrics.
Both teams favor a possession-based approach with a high press, making for an intriguing tactical battle. While Go Ahead Eagles have shown resilience this season, amassing seven points, they face a daunting task against a side with markedly better xPoints and xG stats. Alkmaar's defensive solidity, evidenced by an xGA of just 0.69 per match, contrasts sharply with the Eagles' more porous backline.
For those seeking value, look at the under 2.5 goals. Despite the model suggesting a high goal total, the damp weather and the 37% probability of a lower-scoring game offer a compelling opportunity at odds of 2.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Anchoring your bets on a tighter, controlled match could be the shrewdest move in this encounter.
AZ AlkmaarForm DDWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #6xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Mexx MeerdinkFxG 0.94 · xT 0.02
- Ro-Zangelo DaalLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.19
- Weslley Pinto BatistaRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.11
Go Ahead EaglesForm LLWDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #9xP/match #9Points #2
Key players
- Søren Østergaard TengstedtRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.01
- Mathis SurayLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
- Victor Kaj EdvardsenCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.17
Final score
5 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% · Draw 19% · Go Ahead Eagles 13%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Go Ahead EaglesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 17,07fair 22,81-25 %
MissMatchresultat - AZ AlkmaarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,03fair 4,39-31 %
HitMatch prediction: AZ Alkmaar – Go Ahead Eagles
Predicted score matrix
Go Ahead Eagles →
AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–13.6%
0–21.9%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–08.5%
1–19.0%
1–24.3%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–09.8%
2–19.8%
2–24.9%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–07.4%
3–17.4%
3–23.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–07.1%
4+–17.0%
4+–23.5%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,26–1,00
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@3.00EV+11%
Over 2,563%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AZ Alkmaar to win68%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Troy Daniel Parrott to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Troy Daniel Parrott to score39%
- Mats Deijl to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.559% probability@1.94PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@3.00BetssonEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · AZ Alkmaar | X | 2 · Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.36 | 4.75 | EV+ 10% 8.18 |
| Betsson | 1.36 | 4.75 | EV+ 10% 8.18 |
| Nordicbet | 1.36 | 4.75 | EV+ 10% 8.18 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | EV+ 8% 5.70 | 7.20 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:36
Odds movement
1-1 %
72 %67 %
1.38 → 1.37
X+8 %
20 %15 %
5.27 → 5.70
2+7 %
16 %11 %
6.71 → 7.20
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAZ Alkmaar 1Draw 3Go Ahead Eagles 0
Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- AZ Alkmaar come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
AZ Alkmaar
Go Ahead Eagles
AZ Alkmaar (8–1)
Go Ahead Eagles (9–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
AZ Alkmaar
Go Ahead Eagles
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
AZ Alkmaar
Go Ahead Eagles
The teams in numbers
| Performance | AZ Alkmaar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 7 |
| xPoints | 7.6 | 3.8 |
| xG per match | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 0.69 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.72 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.1 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | AZ Alkmaar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.84 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.54 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 22 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 448 | 412 |
| Passes against per match | 280 | 354 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.7 | 35 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 40 |
| Set pieces | AZ Alkmaar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 10.8 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.82 |
| Other | AZ Alkmaar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| The goalkeepers | Jari De Busser (AZ Alkmaar) | Christian Kjetil Haug (Go Ahead Eagles) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 6 |
| Save % | 80% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles according to our model?
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AZ Alkmaar 68%, draw 19%, Go Ahead Eagles 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.