01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Excelsior or draw (1X)74%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
EredivisieVan Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam19°6,4 mm30 km/h
Läs på svenska
ExcelsiorPossession control2–1
Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Excelsior (43%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.79 (+13 %)
Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
1 · Excelsior 43%X 30%27% Sparta Rotterdam · 2
43%
30%
27%
Analysis: Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Excelsior's possession-based approach might just be the tipping point as they host Sparta Rotterdam. Historically, games between these two have been tight, with each side winning once in their last two encounters. However, this is a small sample size and should be weighed against Excelsior's superior expected goals (xG) metrics and possession control style. With an xG of 1.6 compared to Sparta's 1.3, the hosts appear poised to capitalize on their offensive setup, pressing high and controlling the tempo.
Sparta, known for their counter-attacking flair, will aim to exploit any gaps left by Excelsior's high line. Despite their slightly superior form in terms of points (4 versus 3), Sparta's defensive vulnerabilities are evident. Their expected goals against (xGA) sits at a concerning 2.2 per match, significantly higher than Excelsior's 1.5. This defensive fragility could be their undoing against a team geared towards maintaining possession and creating quality chances.
The model leans towards a home win, with Excelsior given a 43% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12%, but the hosts are more likely to edge it 1-0 or 2-1. With goals expected from both sides, the chances of both teams scoring is 54%, and there's a slight tilt towards over 2.5 goals at 51%.
For those eyeing an unlikely result, the under 0.5 goals market presents a tantalizing value proposition across multiple bookmakers—Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet—at odds of 17.0. While the model only rates it a 7% chance, the 17% edge makes this a notable consideration for risk-takers.
ExcelsiorForm WDWWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #12xP/match #7Points #12
Key players
- Irakli YegoianRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.35
- David GardenFxG 0.36 · xT -0.08
- Lennard HartjesCDMxG 0.03 · xT -0.07
Sparta RotterdamForm LLLWD
League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #7xP/match #16Points #7
Key players
- Julian BaasCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
- Casper Mikael TerhoFxG 0.33 · xT 0.09
- Ayoni SantosLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Excelsior 43% · Draw 30% · Sparta Rotterdam 27%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ExcelsiorBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,44fair 7,69-29 %
MissMatchresultat - SpartaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,14fair 15,46-47 %
MissMatch prediction: Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam
Predicted score matrix
Sparta Rotterdam →
Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–17.0%
0–24.1%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–010.1%
1–112.1%
1–26.6%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.4%
2–25.3%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.5%
3–15.0%
3–22.8%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,60–1,13
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.24EV+9%
Over 2,551%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Excelsior or draw (1X)74%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Derensili Sanches Fernandes to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Tobias Lauritsen to score24%
- Julian Baas to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.79PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
- Under 2.549% probability@2.24BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- Under 2.549% probability@2.24BetssonEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Excelsior | X | 2 · Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.16 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 3.17 |
| Betsson | 2.16 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 3.17 |
| Nordicbet | 2.16 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 3.17 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | EV+ 7% 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | EV+ 13% 3.79 | 3.20 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Excelsior win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.44 to 2.16 (−11%).
1-11 %
47 %37 %
2.44 → 2.16
X+2 %
30 %20 %
3.70 → 3.79
2+20 %
38 %28 %
2.67 → 3.20
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesExcelsior 1Draw 0Sparta Rotterdam 1
Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior (5–2)
Sparta Rotterdam (6–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 4 |
| xPoints | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| Playing style | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 356 | 317 |
| Passes against per match | 446 | 386 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.3 | 32.4 |
| Long balls per match | 46 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| Other | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| The goalkeepers | Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior) | Filip Bednarek (Sparta Rotterdam) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 7 |
| Save % | 78% | 58% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam according to our model?
The model gives Excelsior a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Excelsior 43%, draw 30%, Sparta Rotterdam 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.