Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie12 September 2026Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard18°13 km/h

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Fortuna SittardLow block & direct

AjaxPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Ajax (67%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.87 (+7 %)

1 · Fortuna Sittard 14%X 19%67% Ajax · 2

14%

19%

67%

Analysis: Fortuna Sittard – Ajax

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

An intriguing disparity sets the stage as Fortuna Sittard hosts Ajax. Despite the hosts' superior points tally this season, the underlying dynamics suggest a different story. Ajax, historically dominant in this fixture, come in with 67% probability of taking all three points. Their possession-based, high-press approach stands in stark contrast to Sittard's low defensive line and direct style, setting up a clash of philosophies on the pitch.

The model's numbers tell us much about the shape of this encounter. Expected goals lean heavily in favor of the visitors, at 2.28 compared to Sittard's 1.07. Ajax's ability to create high-quality chances contrasts sharply with Sittard's struggles both in attack and defense. Although Sittard leads on actual points this season, its tally of 10 well exceeds its xPoints of 6.4, suggesting the hosts have overperformed and may be due for a correction, while Ajax's actual points (7) sit close to its xPoints (6.8), indicating a fairer reflection of its underlying quality.

Historically, this matchup has been fruitful for Ajax, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters since 2022, albeit from a small sample. With an average of 3.6 goals per meeting, the expectation of goals remains strong. The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 65%, although the model intriguingly favors the under 3.5 market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet each offer odds of 1.81 on under 3.5 goals, delivering a 3% edge according to the model's assessment.

Taking all these factors into account, Ajax's likely resurgence seems poised to continue. A 2-1 or 2-0 victory for the visitors aligns with both model probabilities and historical trends. For bettors, the value lies in considering the under 3.5 goals market at 1.81, where the model identifies a slight edge.

Fortuna Sittard

Form DWLWW

League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #18xP/match #9Points #7

Key players

Lequincio ZeefuikFxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
Ole ter Haar RomenyFxG 0.15 · xT -0.02
Mohamed Amine IhattarenRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16

Ajax

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #5xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Lucas RosaRBxG 0.17 · xT 0.31
Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.09
Aaron BouwmanCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Fortuna Sittard – Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Ajax →

Fortuna Sittard →

0–03.8%

0–17.8%

0–29.1%

0–36.9%

0–4+6.7%

1–03.5%

1–18.8%

1–29.8%

1–37.4%

1–4+7.2%

2–02.0%

2–14.6%

2–25.2%

2–34.0%

2–4+3.8%

3–00.7%

3–11.6%

3–21.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.4%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.0-29%
3.1-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,07–2,28

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@3.00EV+5%

Over 2,565%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ajax to win67%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ajax to win67%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score40%
Syb van Ottele to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.557% probability@1.87PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.535% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.535% probability@3.00BetssonEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fortuna Sittard	X	2 · Ajax
Bet365	5.00	4.50	EV+ 3% 1.53
Betfair Exchange	5.60	4.70	1.47
Betsafe	6.77	4.52	1.43
Betsson	6.77	4.52	1.43
Nordicbet	6.77	4.52	1.43
Pinnacle	6.21	4.99	1.43

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29

Odds movement

1-5 %

18 %13 %

6.51 → 6.21

X-4 %

21 %16 %

5.19 → 4.99

2+2 %

69 %64 %

1.40 → 1.43

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Fortuna Sittard 0Draw 2Ajax 6

Goals: 6–23 (⌀ 3,6)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Ajax dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fortuna Sittard

Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fortuna Sittard (11–9)

Ajax (9–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fortuna Sittard

Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fortuna Sittard

Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fortuna Sittard	Ajax
Points	10	7
xPoints	6.4	6.8
xG per match	0.82	2.2
xGA per match	2.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.17

Playing style	Fortuna Sittard	Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.15	0.7
xT per match	0.46	1.5
xTA per match	1.8	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	16	24
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.2
Entries into the box per match	7	15
Entries into the box against	23	9
Pass completion %	0.68	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.75
Passes per match	208	464
Passes against per match	525	324
Switches of play per match	13.4	24.6
Long balls per match	27	34

Set pieces	Fortuna Sittard	Ajax
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	1.8	5.4
Corners against per match	7.9	2.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.7

Other	Fortuna Sittard	Ajax
Throw-in control	0.6	0.73

The goalkeepers	Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard)	Marc-André ter Stegen (Ajax)
Saves	22	15
Save %	73%	75%
xG prevented	58%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fortuna Sittard

Fixtures, form & tips

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Ajax a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Sittard 14%, draw 19%, Ajax 67%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.