01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AZ Alkmaar to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
EredivisieFortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard16°0,9 mm11 km/h
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Fortuna SittardLow block & directvs
AZ AlkmaarPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · AZ Alkmaar (51%)Best value by the model: 1 · Fortuna Sittard @ 4.83 (+13 %)
Fortuna Sittard – AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie
1 · Fortuna Sittard 23%X 26%51% AZ Alkmaar · 2
23%
26%
51%
Analysis: Fortuna Sittard – AZ Alkmaar
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
AZ Alkmaar's unbeaten streak stretches to 8 league matches, a testament to their consistency and the kind of form that makes them favourites as they face Fortuna Sittard. With model probabilities giving AZ Alkmaar a 51% chance of victory compared to Fortuna Sittard's 23%, the numbers clearly point towards an away win. The expected goals (xG) further underline this, with AZ Alkmaar at 1.79 compared to Fortuna's 1.30, suggesting the visitors should have the upper hand in both creating and converting chances.
Fortuna Sittard, with their low defence and direct style, might find it challenging against AZ's possession and high press game. The small four-game head-to-head sample since 2022 shows an even split with two wins apiece, but this weighs less than current form. It's clear that AZ Alkmaar's recent performances are more representative of their current capabilities, especially given their superior xPoints (4.7) and xG per match (2.5) compared to Fortuna Sittard's (3.1 and 1.2, respectively).
Weather conditions don't factor into this matchup, allowing us to focus squarely on the statistical elements. The model hints at a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals, complemented by a 61% chance of both teams finding the net. This leans towards a relatively open contest, though the likelihood of AZ's structured play might just edge it in their favour. A 1-2 scoreline seems plausible, capturing both teams' expected contribution while keeping AZ Alkmaar's winning streak intact.
For punters with an eye for value, the odds on Fortuna Sittard at 4.82 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a tempting proposition with a 12% edge, according to the model's 23% win probability. While this isn't a guarantee of a home upset, it presents a calculated risk for those willing to back the underdog in hopes of a high return.
Fortuna SittardForm LWLDW
League ranking xG #15xGA #13xT #17xP/match #8Points #4
Key players
- Lequincio ZeefuikRWxG 0.40 · xT -0.02
- Ole ter Haar RomenyFxG 0.23 · xT -0.04
- Mohamed Amine IhattarenRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.15
AZ AlkmaarForm DDDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #11xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Mexx MeerdinkFxG 0.66 · xT 0.00
- Weslley Pinto BatistaRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.15
- Ro-Zangelo DaalLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: Fortuna Sittard – AZ Alkmaar
Predicted score matrix
AZ Alkmaar →
Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–17.8%
0–27.3%
0–34.4%
0–4+2.9%
1
1–05.6%
1–110.9%
1–29.5%
1–35.7%
1–4+3.8%
2
2–03.8%
2–16.9%
2–26.2%
2–33.7%
2–4+2.5%
3
3–01.7%
3–13.0%
3–22.7%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,30–1,79
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.59EV+4%
Over 2,560%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AZ Alkmaar to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Dave Kwakman to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Ole ter Haar Romeny to score25%
- Syb van Ottele to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Fortuna Sittard23% probability@4.83BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 1 · Fortuna Sittard23% probability@4.83BetssonEV+13%reference odds
- 1 · Fortuna Sittard23% probability@4.83NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fortuna Sittard | X | 2 · AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 13% 4.83 | EV+ 5% 4.11 | 1.62 |
| Betsson | EV+ 13% 4.83 | EV+ 5% 4.11 | 1.62 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 13% 4.83 | EV+ 5% 4.11 | 1.62 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an AZ Alkmaar win since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 1.74 to 1.62 (−7%).
1+18 %
25 %15 %
4.08 → 4.83
X+3 %
28 %18 %
4.00 → 4.11
2-7 %
62 %52 %
1.74 → 1.62
Over 2,5-3 %
68 %58 %
1.50 → 1.45
Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFortuna Sittard 2Draw 0AZ Alkmaar 2
Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard (5–3)
AZ Alkmaar (6–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3.1 | 4.7 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.53 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.23 | 0.68 |
| xT per match | 0.41 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 2.1 | 0.75 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 193 | 376 |
| Passes against per match | 576 | 329 |
| Switches of play per match | 12.6 | 17.9 |
| Long balls per match | 21 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 8.7 |
| Corners against per match | 8.1 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.18 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.4 |
| Other | Fortuna Sittard | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard) | Jari De Busser (AZ Alkmaar) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 2 |
| Save % | 77% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar according to our model?
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Sittard 23%, draw 26%, AZ Alkmaar 51%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.