EredivisieEuroborg, Groningen19°2,9 mm23 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    GroningenGroningenPossession control
    2–3
    Fortuna SittardFortuna SittardLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Groningen (57%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.84 (+21 %)

    Groningen – Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

    1 · Groningen 57%X 25%18% Fortuna Sittard · 2

    Analysis: Groningen – Fortuna Sittard

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Groningen boasts a 57% chance of victory against Fortuna Sittard, with their possession-driven style contrasting sharply with the visitors' low defense and direct approach. The head-to-head record is evenly split over four matches (2W-0D-2L for Groningen), showing no clear edge. However, this is a small sample and weighs less heavily than current form and expected goals.

    Expected goals indicate a clear advantage for the hosts, with Groningen at 1.91 compared to Fortuna Sittard's 1.06. This aligns with the model's suggestion of a Groningen win, supported by their superior xG and xPoints figures. Yet, the presence of rain could suppress scoring, already accounted for in the model's numbers. The over 2.5 goals probability is 57%, but with both teams expected to score 56% of the time, a cagey 1-1 or 2-1 outcome is plausible.

    There is notable value in the under 2.5 goals market at 2.71 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Each presents a 17% edge according to the model's 43% rating. For a disciplined bettor, this under could present a calculated opportunity, despite the statistical lean towards a higher-scoring match.

    GroningenGroningen
    Form WLWWL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #14xT #10xP/match #8Points #5
    Key players
    • David van der WerffFxG 0.25 · xT 0.34
    • Brynjolfur WillumssonFxG 0.39 · xT -0.06
    • Jorg SchreudersRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
    Form WLDWL
    League ranking xG #17xGA #18xT #18xP/match #13Points #8
    Key players
    • Ole ter Haar RomenyFxG 0.15 · xT -0.02
    • Lequincio ZeefuikFxG 0.30 · xT -0.02
    • Mohamed Amine IhattarenRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.14
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Groningen 57% · Draw 25% · Fortuna Sittard 18%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Fortuna SittardBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 15,36fair 18,48-17 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - FC GroningenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,62fair 5,67-36 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Groningen – Fortuna Sittard

    Predicted score matrix

    Fortuna Sittard →
    Groningen →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.5%
    0–15.1%
    0–22.9%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–09.5%
    1–110.7%
    1–25.5%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.4%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.2%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–06.0%
    3–16.3%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–04.4%
    4+–14.7%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,91–1,06
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.53EV+9%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.47

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Groningen to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.11

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Groningen to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Thom van Bergen to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Thom van Bergen to score34%
    • Philip Brittijn to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw25% probability@4.84PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
    • 2 · Fortuna Sittard18% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • 2 · Fortuna Sittard18% probability@6.30BetssonEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GroningenX2 · Fortuna Sittard
    Betsafe1.48
    EV+ 7%
    4.29
    EV+ 15%
    6.30
    Betsson1.48
    EV+ 7%
    4.29
    EV+ 15%
    6.30
    Nordicbet1.48
    EV+ 7%
    4.29
    EV+ 15%
    6.30
    Pinnacle1.49
    EV+ 21%
    4.84
    EV+ 12%
    6.12

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:38

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    65 %60 %

    1.47 → 1.49

    X+1 %
    23 %18 %

    4.81 → 4.84

    2+5 %
    20 %15 %

    5.82 → 6.12

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Groningen 2Draw 0Fortuna Sittard 2
    Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Groningen
    Fortuna Sittard
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Groningen (7–7)
    Fortuna Sittard (5–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Groningen
    Thijmen Blokzijl: 143 passningar, xT 0.13BlokzijlTygo Land: 114 passningar, xT 0.2LandEtienne Vaessen: 97 passningar, xT 0.37VaessenJorg Schreuders: 92 passningar, xT 0.13SchreudersTika de Jonge: 91 passningar, xT 0.31JongeDavid van der Werff: 77 passningar, xT 0.88WerffPelle Clement: 72 passningar, xT 0.28ClementThom van Bergen: 60 passningar, xT 0.34BergenElvis Arnold van der Laan: 56 passningar, xT 0.04LaanWouter Prins: 52 passningar, xT 0.12PrinsMárk Csinger: 42 passningar, xT 0.05Csinger
    Fortuna Sittard
    Justin Hubner: 77 passningar, xT 0.05HubnerMattijs Branderhorst: 51 passningar, xT 0.12BranderhorstÉdouard Oscar Michut: 50 passningar, xT 0.02MichutSiebe Roland Wylin: 49 passningar, xT 0.07WylinSyb Van Ottele: 46 passningar, xT 0.08OtteleIvo Daniel Ferreira Mendonça Pinto: 46 passningar, xT 0.21PintoJasper Dahlhaus: 42 passningar, xT 0.15DahlhausPhilip Brittijn: 39 passningar, xT -0.04BrittijnMohamed Amine Ihattaren: 38 passningar, xT 0.16IhattarenYassin Oukili: 29 passningar, xT 0.12OukiliNick de Groot: 20 passningar, xT -0.03Groot
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Groningen
    Thijmen Blokzijl: 143 passningar, xT 0.13BlokzijlTygo Land: 114 passningar, xT 0.2LandEtienne Vaessen: 97 passningar, xT 0.37VaessenJorg Schreuders: 92 passningar, xT 0.13SchreudersTika de Jonge: 91 passningar, xT 0.31JongeDavid van der Werff: 77 passningar, xT 0.88WerffPelle Clement: 72 passningar, xT 0.28ClementThom van Bergen: 60 passningar, xT 0.34BergenElvis Arnold van der Laan: 56 passningar, xT 0.04LaanWouter Prins: 52 passningar, xT 0.12PrinsMárk Csinger: 42 passningar, xT 0.05Csinger
    Fortuna Sittard
    Justin Hubner: 77 passningar, xT 0.05HubnerMattijs Branderhorst: 51 passningar, xT 0.12BranderhorstÉdouard Oscar Michut: 50 passningar, xT 0.02MichutSiebe Roland Wylin: 49 passningar, xT 0.07WylinSyb Van Ottele: 46 passningar, xT 0.08OtteleIvo Daniel Ferreira Mendonça Pinto: 46 passningar, xT 0.21PintoJasper Dahlhaus: 42 passningar, xT 0.15DahlhausPhilip Brittijn: 39 passningar, xT -0.04BrittijnMohamed Amine Ihattaren: 38 passningar, xT 0.16IhattarenYassin Oukili: 29 passningar, xT 0.12OukiliNick de Groot: 20 passningar, xT -0.03Groot

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGroningenFortuna Sittard
    Points64
    xPoints4.13.2
    xG per match1.50.88
    xGA per match2.12.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.410.42
    Playing styleGroningenFortuna Sittard
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.390.16
    xT per match10.31
    xTA per match1.52.2
    Won balls, offensive half1818
    Pressing intensity0.260.28
    Pressing efficiency0.220.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.23
    Entries into the box per match118
    Entries into the box against2328
    Pass completion %0.740.65
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.65
    Passes per match322190
    Passes against per match390581
    Switches of play per match18.511.1
    Long balls per match3924
    Set piecesGroningenFortuna Sittard
    xG from free kicks00.03
    Corners per match3.62.4
    Corners against per match510.4
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.050.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.090.71
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.42
    OtherGroningenFortuna Sittard
    Throw-in control0.760.64
    The goalkeepersEtienne Vaessen (Groningen)Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard)
    Saves1620
    Save %73%80%
    xG prevented45%62%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Groningen
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fortuna Sittard
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard according to our model?

    The model gives Groningen a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Groningen 57%, draw 25%, Fortuna Sittard 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.