01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Groningen to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
EredivisieEuroborg, Groningen14°5,1 mm29 km/h
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GroningenPossession & high pressvs
PEC ZwolleLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Groningen (59%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.81 (+3 %)
Groningen – PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
1 · Groningen 59%X 23%18% PEC Zwolle · 2
59%
23%
18%
Analysis: Groningen – PEC Zwolle
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Groningen holds a clear edge in both form and expected goals ahead of their clash with PEC Zwolle. The model gives the hosts a 59% chance of victory, leaning strongly in their favor, while the visitors sit at a modest 18%. Despite this, the head-to-head record since 2022 reveals no wins for Groningen in four matches, a small sample that weighs less than current form and expected goals data.
Looking at the likely scorelines, a 2-1 victory for the home side seems most probable, marked at 10%. This aligns with Groningen's superior xG of 2.15, suggesting they should find the back of the net more than once. PEC Zwolle's expected goals of 1.11 reflect their status as underdogs, although their direct play style means they could still cause problems on the break.
The forecast of rain, with 2.7 mm expected, might dampen the goal tally, but it's already accounted for in the model's numbers. Even with the weather factored in, there's a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, while both teams finding the net sits at 60%. Groningen's possession-based approach combined with Zwolle's defensive setup could lead to a tight contest initially, but the expected superiority of the home side should eventually tell.
In terms of sheer numbers, Groningen shows superiority in every critical metric: from their higher xPoints to their better defensive numbers, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.8) than Zwolle's 2.2. The visitors' tendency to concede may prove their undoing, especially under the pressure of Groningen's high press.
For those keeping an eye on value, a win for Groningen can be found at bet365 for odds of 1.70. While no bet is ever a certainty, the numbers suggest it's a solid play. Expect Groningen to finally break their head-to-head streak with a controlled performance.
GroningenForm WWLLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #8xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- David van der WerffFxG 0.23 · xT 0.27
- Brynjolfur WillumssonFxG 0.35 · xT -0.06
- Jorg SchreudersRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
PEC ZwolleForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #17xP/match #13Points #13
Key players
- Koen KostonsFxG 0.30 · xT 0.10
- Tobias Sommer SørensenFxG 0.13 · xT 0.03
- Ibrahim CissokoLWxG 0.20 · xT -0.01
Match prediction: Groningen – PEC Zwolle
Predicted score matrix
PEC Zwolle →
Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–14.0%
0–22.4%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.0%
1–19.4%
1–25.1%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.8%
2–25.5%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.4%
3–17.1%
3–23.9%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–16.3%
4+–23.5%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,15–1,11
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.81EV+3%
Over 2,563%
@1.48
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Groningen to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Thom van Bergen to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Thom van Bergen to score27%
- Olivier Aertssen to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.537% probability@2.81BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@2.81BetssonEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@2.81NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Groningen | X | 2 · PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.61 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Betsafe | 1.63 | 4.14 | 4.63 |
| Betsson | 1.63 | 4.14 | 4.63 |
| Nordicbet | 1.63 | 4.14 | 4.63 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39
Odds movement
1-1 %
60 %55 %
1.65 → 1.63
X+1 %
25 %20 %
4.11 → 4.14
2+1 %
23 %18 %
4.59 → 4.63
Over 2,50 %
69 %64 %
1.39 → 1.39
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGroningen 0Draw 3PEC Zwolle 1
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
Groningen (11–12)
PEC Zwolle (6–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 4 |
| xPoints | 6.7 | 5.4 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.69 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 352 | 243 |
| Passes against per match | 350 | 437 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.9 | 17 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 8.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| Other | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Etienne Vaessen (Groningen) | Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 24 |
| Save % | 66% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Groningen vs PEC Zwolle according to our model?
The model gives Groningen a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Groningen 59%, draw 23%, PEC Zwolle 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.