Groningen vs Twente: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie6 September 2026Euroborg, Groningen16°13 km/h

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GroningenPossession & high press

TwentePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Twente (56%)

1 · Groningen 22%X 22%56% Twente · 2

22%

56%

Analysis: Groningen – Twente

Erik Lindberg · 1 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

56% is a compelling number for Twente in this matchup. The visitors are clearly favored, with a substantial edge in expected goals, 1.98 to Groningen's 1.22. Despite both teams sharing a possession and high press style, Twente's execution is superior, reflected in their 2.6 xG per match compared to the hosts' 1.5. This matchup looks tilted toward the visitors controlling the tempo and the scoreline.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample of four matches, leans Twente's way with two draws and two wins. The model points to a 1-1 or 1-2 outcome as equally likely, but Groningen's defense, leaking 1.7 xGA per match, is a vulnerability. The over 2.5 goals probability at 62% underscores an expectation for goals, though Twente's ability to suppress opposition attacks, conceding just 0.52 xGA per match, could limit Groningen's chances.

The value lies in the odds, with a 15% edge for Twente away at 2.05 being particularly notable. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all present this line, offering a calculated opportunity for those inclined. The model's endorsement of Twente at these odds is an analytical nod to discipline over risk.

Groningen

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #8xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

David van der WerffRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.31
Brynjolfur WillumssonFxG 0.39 · xT -0.06
Jorg SchreudersRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13

Twente

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #9

Key players

Max BrunsCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
Daouda WeidmannCAMxG 0.27 · xT -0.01
Marko PjacaRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.29

Match prediction: Groningen – Twente

Predicted score matrix

Twente →

Groningen →

0–04.4%

0–17.8%

0–28.0%

0–35.3%

0–4+4.1%

1–04.7%

1–110.1%

1–29.7%

1–36.4%

1–4+5.0%

2–03.0%

2–16.0%

2–26.0%

2–33.9%

2–4+3.1%

3–01.2%

3–12.5%

3–22.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.5%

4+–11.0%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,22–1,98

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.48

Over 2,562%

@1.57

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Twente to win56%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Twente to win56%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Mathias Ullereng Kjølø to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Mathias Ullereng Kjølø to score23%
Tygo Land to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Twente56% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
2 · Twente56% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Twente56% probability@2.05BetssonEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Groningen	X	2 · Twente
Bet365	3.25	3.80	EV+ 9% 1.95
Betsafe	3.31	3.58	EV+ 15% 2.05
Betsson	3.31	3.58	EV+ 15% 2.05
Nordicbet	3.31	3.58	EV+ 15% 2.05
Pinnacle	3.28	3.76	EV+ 15% 2.06

Odds updated 4 Sept, 12:29

Odds movement

1+2 %

31 %26 %

3.23 → 3.28

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.75 → 3.76

2-1 %

49 %44 %

2.09 → 2.06

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Groningen 0Draw 2Twente 2

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Groningen

Twente

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Groningen (9–10)

Twente (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Groningen

Twente

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Groningen

Twente

The teams in numbers

Performance	Groningen	Twente
Points	6	6
xPoints	5.4	6.5
xG per match	1.5	2.6
xGA per match	1.7	0.52
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.12

Playing style	Groningen	Twente
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.8
xT per match	1.2	2.1
xTA per match	1.3	0.3
Won balls, offensive half	20	27
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.27
Entries into the box per match	13	20
Entries into the box against	19	8
Pass completion %	0.76	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.79
Passes per match	362	519
Passes against per match	340	294
Switches of play per match	23.3	39.5
Long balls per match	38	37

Set pieces	Groningen	Twente
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	4.4	7.7
Corners against per match	4.2	3
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.22	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.33

Other	Groningen	Twente
Throw-in control	0.76	0.79

The goalkeepers	Etienne Vaessen (Groningen)	Lars Unnerstall (Twente)
Saves	18	5
Save %	67%	71%
xG prevented	42%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Groningen vs Twente according to our model?

The model gives Twente a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Groningen 22%, draw 22%, Twente 56%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.