NEC vs Feyenoord: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie5 September 2026Goffertstadion, Nijmegen18°24 km/h

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NECPossession & high press

1–3

FeyenoordPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Feyenoord (48%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.14 (+33 %)

1 · NEC 27%X 26%48% Feyenoord · 2

27%

26%

48%

Analysis: NEC – Feyenoord

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Feyenoord's 48% win probability and 13-match unbeaten streak position them as the likely victors against NEC, despite NEC's knack for finding the net in 26 consecutive league games. The model clearly leans towards the visitors, but the most probable scorelines, including a 1-1 draw and a narrow 1-2 win for the visitors, highlight the potential for a close match.

NEC's recent head-to-head advantage, with 1 win and 3 draws in their last four encounters, is a small sample and doesn't weigh heavily against Feyenoord's superior form and xG metrics. The hosts' consistent scoring and possession-based high press can keep them competitive, but they still face a more efficient opponent. Feyenoord's higher xG and lower xGA per match further underscore their comparative strength.

While the expectation is for more than 2.5 goals at a 58% probability, the under 2.5 line offers remarkable value. Odds of 3.09 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a significant 31% edge over the model's 42% rating for a lower-scoring affair. This suggests a potentially profitable bet against the grain of the overall goal expectation.

With both sides adopting similar high-press styles, a tactical stalemate could suppress scoring opportunities, aligning with the under 2.5 prediction. Although both teams are consistently scoring, the strategic setup might reduce clear-cut chances.

Feyenoord edges this matchup, but the betting value lies in anticipating fewer goals. A 1-1 draw or narrow 1-2 win for the visitors seems most plausible, yet backing under 2.5 goals at such generous odds could be the sharpest angle for this fixture.

NEC

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #2xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.44 · xT 0.08
Dušan TadićFxG 0.10 · xT 0.25
Brayann PereiraRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25

Feyenoord

Form WWDWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #3xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Anis Hadj MoussaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.31
Ayase UedaFxG 1.01 · xT 0.09
Gjivai ZechielCMxG 0.35 · xT 0.26

Final score

1 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: NEC 27% · Draw 26% · Feyenoord 48%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FeyenoordBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,34fair 6,74-36 %

Hit

Matchresultat - NECBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,22fair 10,91-52 %

Miss

Match prediction: NEC – Feyenoord

Predicted score matrix

Feyenoord →

NEC →

0–05.3%

0–18.0%

0–27.0%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.4%

1–06.2%

1–111.4%

1–29.3%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.2%

2–04.3%

2–17.3%

2–26.1%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.1%

3–01.9%

3–13.2%

3–22.7%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,32–1,68

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,542%

@3.14EV+33%

Over 2,558%

@1.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Feyenoord to win48%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Feyenoord to win48%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ayase Ueda to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ayase Ueda to score29%
Anel Ahmedhodžić to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.542% probability@3.14BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
Under 2.542% probability@3.14BetssonEV+33%reference odds
Under 2.542% probability@3.14NordicbetEV+33%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · NEC	X	2 · Feyenoord
Betsafe	2.74	3.83	EV+ 8% 2.26
Betsson	2.74	3.83	EV+ 8% 2.26
Nordicbet	2.74	3.83	EV+ 8% 2.26
Pinnacle	2.87	EV+ 5% 4.12	EV+ 7% 2.24

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1-7 %

35 %30 %

3.09 → 2.87

X0 %

26 %21 %

4.10 → 4.12

2+9 %

47 %42 %

2.05 → 2.24

Pinnacle · 19 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

NEC 1Draw 3Feyenoord 0

Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

NEC have scored in 26 consecutive league matches.
Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.
Feyenoord have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

NEC

Feyenoord

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

NEC (8–4)

Feyenoord (10–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

NEC

Feyenoord

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

NEC

Feyenoord

The teams in numbers

Performance	NEC	Feyenoord
Points	6	8
xPoints	5	7.7
xG per match	2.5	2.7
xGA per match	1.2	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.52	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.05

Playing style	NEC	Feyenoord
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.83	0.78
xT per match	2	1.9
xTA per match	0.72	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	33	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.42	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.38	0.24
Entries into the box per match	28	22
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.76	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.78
Passes per match	410	469
Passes against per match	205	296
Switches of play per match	19.2	21.2
Long balls per match	26	29

Set pieces	NEC	Feyenoord
xG from free kicks	0	0.02
Corners per match	7.3	7.5
Corners against per match	3.3	4.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.38

Other	NEC	Feyenoord
Throw-in control	0.74	0.81

The goalkeepers	Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)	Tjark Ernst (Feyenoord)
Saves	3	8
Save %	43%	57%
xG prevented	11%	30%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

NEC

Fixtures, form & tips

Feyenoord

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins NEC vs Feyenoord according to our model?

The model gives Feyenoord a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NEC 27%, draw 26%, Feyenoord 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.