PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie13 September 2026MAC3PARK Stadion, Zwolle17°8,5 mm18 km/h

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PEC ZwolleLow block & direct

FeyenoordPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Feyenoord (71%)

1 · PEC Zwolle 12%X 17%71% Feyenoord · 2

12%

17%

71%

Analysis: PEC Zwolle – Feyenoord

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: 71 percent. That's the probability Feyenoord walks away with a win against PEC Zwolle, a number that decisively shapes the analysis of this encounter. The visitors boast an impressive unbeaten streak stretching across 14 league matches, underscoring their dominance. In contrast, the hosts have yet to register a win against Feyenoord since 2022, a small head-to-head sample that bolsters the visitors' credentials.

With expected goals heavily skewed in favor of Feyenoord—2.67 to Zwolle's 0.99—the projection leans towards a multi-goal victory for the visitors. Their high-scoring form, having found the net in ten consecutive games, contrasts sharply with Zwolle's defensive vulnerabilities. The model suggests a 71% chance of surpassing 2.5 goals, supporting the likelihood of a 0-2 or 1-2 scoreline.

The betting edge can't be ignored. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering Feyenoord at 1.45 odds, there's a small but noteworthy 3% value edge based on the model’s assessment. Rain is forecast for the match. Feyenoord's victory seems the most probable outcome, giving investors a sharp angle to consider on the away side.

PEC Zwolle

Form LLWLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #17xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Koen KostonsFxG 0.30 · xT 0.10
Tobias Sommer SørensenFxG 0.13 · xT 0.03
Ibrahim CissokoLWxG 0.20 · xT -0.01

Feyenoord

Form WDWDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #3xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Anis Hadj MoussaRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.31
Ayase UedaFxG 1.00 · xT 0.09
Luciano ValenteLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.24

Match prediction: PEC Zwolle – Feyenoord

Predicted score matrix

Feyenoord →

PEC Zwolle →

0–02.8%

0–16.6%

0–29.1%

0–38.1%

0–4+10.4%

1–02.3%

1–17.0%

1–29.1%

1–38.1%

1–4+10.3%

2–01.3%

2–13.4%

2–24.5%

2–34.0%

2–4+5.1%

3–00.4%

3–11.1%

3–21.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+1.7%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-29%
2.1-29%
3.0-38%
4.1-38%
5.1-17%

Expected goals

0,99–2,67

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,7

19%

217%

321%

419%

5+31%

Under 2,529%

@3.09

Over 2,571%

@1.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Feyenoord to win71%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Feyenoord to win71%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Ignacio Ferri Julià to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Ignacio Ferri Julià to score35%
Ryan Jared Thomas to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Feyenoord71% probability@1.45BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Feyenoord71% probability@1.45BetssonEV+3%reference odds
2 · Feyenoord71% probability@1.45NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · PEC Zwolle	X	2 · Feyenoord
Bet365	6.00	5.00	1.40
Betsafe	6.27	4.51	EV+ 3% 1.45
Betsson	6.27	4.51	EV+ 3% 1.45
Nordicbet	6.27	4.51	EV+ 3% 1.45
Pinnacle	6.29	4.94	EV+ 1% 1.43

Odds updated 11 Sept, 15:38

Odds movement

1+2 %

18 %13 %

6.18 → 6.29

X+1 %

22 %17 %

4.88 → 4.94

2-1 %

68 %63 %

1.44 → 1.43

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

PEC Zwolle 0Draw 0Feyenoord 4

Goals: 2–17 (⌀ 4,8)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
Feyenoord have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

PEC Zwolle

Feyenoord

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

PEC Zwolle (6–10)

Feyenoord (13–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PEC Zwolle

Feyenoord

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PEC Zwolle

Feyenoord

The teams in numbers

Performance	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
Points	4	11
xPoints	5.4	9.4
xG per match	1.1	2.4
xGA per match	2.2	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.08

Playing style	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.32
Field tilt	0.3	0.71
xT per match	0.69	1.7
xTA per match	1.4	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.25
Entries into the box per match	10	20
Entries into the box against	18	11
Pass completion %	0.68	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.77
Passes per match	243	422
Passes against per match	437	324
Switches of play per match	17	18.2
Long balls per match	28	28

Set pieces	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	3.5	6.2
Corners against per match	8.5	3.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.41

Other	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
Throw-in control	0.69	0.75

The goalkeepers	Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle)	Tjark Ernst (Feyenoord)
Saves	24	9
Save %	73%	56%
xG prevented	51%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

PEC Zwolle

Fixtures, form & tips

Feyenoord

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord according to our model?

The model gives Feyenoord a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PEC Zwolle 12%, draw 17%, Feyenoord 71%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.