EredivisiePhilips Stadion, Eindhoven16°12 km/h

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    PSV EindhovenPSV EindhovenPossession & high press
    vs
    GroningenGroningenPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · PSV Eindhoven (75%)

    PSV Eindhoven – Groningen · Eredivisie

    1 · PSV Eindhoven 75%X 13%11% Groningen · 2

    Analysis: PSV Eindhoven – Groningen

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Thirty-two. That's the remarkable number of consecutive league matches in which PSV Eindhoven have found the back of the net. This scoring juggernaut sets the stage as they face Groningen in the Eredivisie, with PSV basking in the glow of an unbeaten run stretching over their last eight league matches. The model gives them a hefty 75% chance of continuing their winning ways against a Groningen side that, while slightly ahead on points this season, lacks the firepower of their hosts.

    PSV Eindhoven, with their possession and high-pressing style, are expected to control the tempo, reflected in their expected goals of 2.51. Groningen, meanwhile, can manage 1.07 expected goals — a figure that highlights their uphill battle at Philips Stadion. Despite Groningen's edge in points and xPoints, PSV's attacking dynamism and Groningen's leaky defense (xGA of 1.2) suggest that the home side's scoring streak is unlikely to end here.

    Groningen's possession-control style might help them disrupt PSV's rhythm, but historical head-to-heads — albeit a small sample — show a clean sweep for PSV with four wins since 2022. Yet, this head-to-head dominance should be weighted cautiously against the current season's dynamics. With a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood of both teams finding the net, the makings are there for a high-scoring affair.

    PSV Eindhoven looks set for a 2-0 or 3-1 victory, with the model's probabilities pointing to these scorelines at 9% and 8% respectively. For bettors with an eye for value, Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 1.38 on a home win, presenting a 4% edge over the model's 75% probability. This isn’t a guarantee, but given PSV’s formidable home record of winning 81% of their matches, it’s an opportunity worth considering.

    PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
    Form DWWDW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #6xP/match #5Points #5
    Key players
    • Mauro Jaqueson Júnior Ferreira dos SantosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
    • Ricardo PepiFxG 0.83 · xT -0.06
    • Armando ObispoCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
    GroningenGroningen
    Form WWLWW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #8xP/match #4Points #2
    Key players
    • Jorg SchreudersRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    • Thom van BergenCAMxG 0.61 · xT 0.31
    • David van der WerffRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.38

    Match prediction: PSV Eindhoven – Groningen

    Predicted score matrix

    Groningen →
    PSV Eindhoven →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.0%
    0–12.8%
    0–21.6%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–06.8%
    1–17.7%
    1–24.0%
    1–31.4%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–08.8%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–07.4%
    3–17.9%
    3–24.2%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–08.4%
    4+–19.0%
    4+–24.8%
    4+–31.7%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-19%
    2. 2.2-09%
    3. 3.3-18%
    4. 4.1-18%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    2,51–1,07
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,6
    Under 2,531%
    @3.14
    Over 2,569%
    @1.32

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • PSV Eindhoven to win75%
    • Over 1.5 goals87%

    Combined probability

    61%

    Fair odds

    1.63

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • PSV Eindhoven to win75%
    • Over 2.5 goals69%
    • Ricardo Daniel Pepi to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals69%
    • Ricardo Daniel Pepi to score38%
    • Tygo Land to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · PSV Eindhoven75% probability@1.38BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · PSV Eindhoven75% probability@1.38BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · PSV Eindhoven75% probability@1.38NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PSV EindhovenX2 · Groningen
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.38    		4.737.67
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    1.38    		4.737.67
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.38    		4.737.67

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    71 %66 %

    1.36 → 1.38

    X0 %
    22 %17 %

    4.75 → 4.73

    2-6 %
    14 %9 %

    8.18 → 7.67

    Over 2,50 %
    73 %68 %

    1.32 → 1.32

    Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    PSV Eindhoven 4Draw 0Groningen 0
    Goals: 14–4 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
    • PSV Eindhoven have scored in 32 consecutive league matches.
    • PSV Eindhoven win 81% of their home matches all-time (69 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    PSV Eindhoven
    Groningen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    PSV Eindhoven (4–3)
    Groningen (6–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    PSV Eindhoven
    Ryan Flamingo: 184 passningar, xT 0.44FlamingoMauro Jaqueson Júnior Ferreira dos Santos: 178 passningar, xT 0.21SantosArmando Obispo: 146 passningar, xT 0.14ObispoNoah Fernandez: 105 passningar, xT 0.24FernandezIvan Perišić: 104 passningar, xT 0.49PerišićJoey Veerman: 81 passningar, xT 0.2VeermanPaul Wanner: 79 passningar, xT 0.18WannerMatej Kovar: 73 passningar, xT 0.09KovarSergino Dest: 59 passningar, xT 0.42DestRuben van Bommel: 50 passningar, xT 0.11BommelGuus Til: 46 passningar, xT 0.25Til
    Groningen
    Thijmen Blokzijl: 103 passningar, xT 0.09BlokzijlJorg Schreuders: 82 passningar, xT 0.13SchreudersTygo Land: 79 passningar, xT 0.21LandTika de Jonge: 68 passningar, xT 0.19JongeDavid van der Werff: 67 passningar, xT 0.72WerffEtienne Vaessen: 60 passningar, xT 0.26VaessenElvis Arnold van der Laan: 45 passningar, xT 0.02LaanPelle Clement: 43 passningar, xT 0.25ClementThom van Bergen: 42 passningar, xT 0.32BergenWouter Prins: 37 passningar, xT 0.14PrinsBrynjolfur Willumsson: 13 passningar, xT -0.08Willumsson
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    PSV Eindhoven
    Ryan Flamingo: 184 passningar, xT 0.44FlamingoMauro Jaqueson Júnior Ferreira dos Santos: 178 passningar, xT 0.21SantosArmando Obispo: 146 passningar, xT 0.14ObispoNoah Fernandez: 105 passningar, xT 0.24FernandezIvan Perišić: 104 passningar, xT 0.49PerišićJoey Veerman: 81 passningar, xT 0.2VeermanPaul Wanner: 79 passningar, xT 0.18WannerMatej Kovar: 73 passningar, xT 0.09KovarSergino Dest: 59 passningar, xT 0.42DestRuben van Bommel: 50 passningar, xT 0.11BommelGuus Til: 46 passningar, xT 0.25Til
    Groningen
    Thijmen Blokzijl: 103 passningar, xT 0.09BlokzijlJorg Schreuders: 82 passningar, xT 0.13SchreudersTygo Land: 79 passningar, xT 0.21LandTika de Jonge: 68 passningar, xT 0.19JongeDavid van der Werff: 67 passningar, xT 0.72WerffEtienne Vaessen: 60 passningar, xT 0.26VaessenElvis Arnold van der Laan: 45 passningar, xT 0.02LaanPelle Clement: 43 passningar, xT 0.25ClementThom van Bergen: 42 passningar, xT 0.32BergenWouter Prins: 37 passningar, xT 0.14PrinsBrynjolfur Willumsson: 13 passningar, xT -0.08Willumsson

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePSV EindhovenGroningen
    Points46
    xPoints3.63.8
    xG per match2.31.9
    xGA per match0.551.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.14
    Playing stylePSV EindhovenGroningen
    Build-up efficiency0.340.32
    Field tilt0.80.55
    xT per match1.61.4
    xTA per match0.481.4
    Won balls, offensive half2424
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.340.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.24
    Entries into the box per match2014
    Entries into the box against716
    Pass completion %0.830.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.790.67
    Passes per match627340
    Passes against per match258328
    Switches of play per match46.520.3
    Long balls per match4244
    Set piecesPSV EindhovenGroningen
    xG from free kicks0.060
    Corners per match8.13.5
    Corners against per match0.513
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against00
    First touch, offensive corners %0.560.14
    First touch, defensive corners %10.5
    OtherPSV EindhovenGroningen
    Throw-in control0.830.78
    The goalkeepersMatej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven)Etienne Vaessen (Groningen)
    Saves59
    Save %63%82%
    xG prevented51%71%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen according to our model?

    The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PSV Eindhoven 75%, draw 13%, Groningen 11%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.